European Perspective: Prospects for Sustained Ocean Observations in Germany and Europe Martin Visbeck Leibniz-Institute for Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel, Germany

Roadmap Science Driven Programs Science Driven Programs NORDATLANTIK German Program NORDATLANTIK German Program EU 7th framework THOR EU 7th framework THOR Infrastructure opportunities Infrastructure opportunities EU 7th framework EU-AGRO EU 7th framework EU-AGRO EuroSITES EuroSITES ESONET ESONET

Ocean Observing Systems Why do WE need a large scale ocean observing system? Improve our understanding of the time varying large scale ocean circulation. Provide real time estimates of the ocean state for a large range of applications. Initial condition for interannual - decadal predictions (including the ecosystem). Improve the performance of ocean and climate models (model - data comparison).

Ocean Observing Systems Goal Observe the ocean in a cost effective mannerObjectives Versatile platforms Novel Sensors Improved Communication System integration and optimization

International networks of sustained Global Ocean Observations Global Environmental Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) part of GEO Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) European Contribution to GEOSS

Synthesis / Products Strengthen by international cooperation: Data integration Data integration Model Performance Model Performance Synthesis system Synthesis system Stakeholder involvement Stakeholder involvement in order to fully accomplish the benefits for society ObservationsModels Synthesis Assessments Predictions PRODUCTS

Drijfhout & Hazeleger

Predictability of the THC Control simulations Perturbed runs Source: Mat Collins, CGAM

Sensitivity of climate change predictions to oceanic initial conditions Source: Mojib Latif, MPI Scenarios forced with 1% CO2 p.a.

German CLIVAR: NORDATLANTIK Subpolar North Atlantic Subtropical Atlantic Atlantic Synthesis The North Atlantic as part of the Earth System: The path from understanding the system to regional impact analyses. TACE Coordinator: D. Stammer ZMAW

NORDATLANTIK goals: Quantitative understanding of key processes, including freshwater budget of North Atlantic and water mass formation rates. Quantitative understanding of key processes, including freshwater budget of North Atlantic and water mass formation rates. Identification of vital observing elements in key regions than can form the back bone of a North Atlantic observing and diagnosis system. Identification of vital observing elements in key regions than can form the back bone of a North Atlantic observing and diagnosis system. Development of approaches suitable to detect seasonal to decadal climate changes, including the improvement of coupled models and the use of the consortium’s observations for initialization. Development of approaches suitable to detect seasonal to decadal climate changes, including the improvement of coupled models and the use of the consortium’s observations for initialization. Estimation of impacts of large-scale Atlantic circulation changes on European continental shelf regions, on the uptake of CO 2 as well as regional sea level changes in the Atlantic. Estimation of impacts of large-scale Atlantic circulation changes on European continental shelf regions, on the uptake of CO 2 as well as regional sea level changes in the Atlantic. Estimation of impact of modified thermohaline circulation on primary production and the fish stock of the Atlantic through numerical scenario run. Estimation of impact of modified thermohaline circulation on primary production and the fish stock of the Atlantic through numerical scenario run. Construction of pilot diagnosis and evaluation system. Construction of pilot diagnosis and evaluation system.

Roadmap Science Driven Programs Science Driven Programs NORDATLANTIK German Program NORDATLANTIK German Program EU 7th framework THOR EU 7th framework THOR Infrastructure opportunities Infrastructure opportunities EU 7th framework EU-AGRO EU 7th framework EU-AGRO EuroSITES EuroSITES ESONET ESONET

Thermohaline Overturning – at Risk? (THOR) Proposal to EU-FP7 The Earth System and Climate: Functioning and abrupt changes ENV Stability of the Thermohaline Circulation Coordinator: D. Quadfasel ZMAW

Thermohaline Overturning – at Risk? (THOR) 1.Quantifying THC variability on time scales up to centennial and identification of the key processes and feed- back mechanisms responsible for this variability. 1.Quantifying THC variability on time scales up to centennial and identification of the key processes and feed- back mechanisms responsible for this variability. 2.Quantifying ocean state uncertainties derived from combined model and data analysis. 2.Quantifying ocean state uncertainties derived from combined model and data analysis. 3.Quantifying Atlantic THC flux variability on time scales up to decadal, providing benchmarks for model tests. 3.Quantifying Atlantic THC flux variability on time scales up to decadal, providing benchmarks for model tests. 4.Quantifying the strength of the Nordic sources to the deep limb of the THC. 4.Quantifying the strength of the Nordic sources to the deep limb of the THC. 5.Quantifying the skill of coupled forecast models on decadal time scales 5.Quantifying the skill of coupled forecast models on decadal time scales 6.Forecasting the THC variability on decadal time scales. 6.Forecasting the THC variability on decadal time scales. 7.Near real time data transfer from deep sea moorings 7.Near real time data transfer from deep sea moorings 8.Assimilation techniques for coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. 8.Assimilation techniques for coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models.

Roadmap Science Driven Programs Science Driven Programs NORDATLANTIK German Program NORDATLANTIK German Program EU 7th framework THOR EU 7th framework THOR Infrastructure opportunities Infrastructure opportunities EU 7th framework EU-AGRO EU 7th framework EU-AGRO EuroSITES EuroSITES ESONET ESONET

EU-ARGO European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI) Preparatory Phase proposal. Overall objective Prepare European Argo contribution for sustained operation (By 2010 maintain 800 floats - presently operating 471) Overall budget €4.6 million over 30 months Timetable April Proposal submitted End July- Funding decision Nov-Dec - First funds available Coordinator: P.Y. Le Traon IFREMER

EU-ARGO

EU-ARGO Specific objectives Get European components of data processing operating fully Clear data backlog Expand participation in Argo activities Present countries France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, UK New countries in Euro-Argo Greece, Portugal, Poland, Bulgaria Establish European User group Improve technology (Sensor trials, monitor tech performance of all European floats) Perform impact studies Develop educational outreach activities Prepare to obtain extra float funding through GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security)

Roadmap Science Driven Programs Science Driven Programs NORDATLANTIK German Program NORDATLANTIK German Program EU 7th framework THOR EU 7th framework THOR Infrastructure opportunities Infrastructure opportunities EU 7th framework EU-AGRO EU 7th framework EU-AGRO EuroSITES EuroSITES ESONET ESONET

EuroSITES Integration and enhancement of key existing European deep-ocean Observatories Integration and enhancement of key existing European deep-ocean Observatories Atlantic Sites: Station M CIS PAP ESTOC TENATSO Atlantic Sites: Station M CIS PAP ESTOC TENATSO Coordinator: R. Lampitt NOC, UK

European Multidisciplinary Seafloor Observation (EMSO) EMSO deep sea-floor observatories are deployed on specific sites off the European coastline to allow continuous monitoring for environment and security. They will be organized in a unique management structure at European level (and part of a global endeavor), for long-term monitoring of environmental processes related to ecosystem life and evolution, global changes and geo-hazards. EMSO will be a key component of the Global Monitoring and Environment System (GMES) and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS).

SFB Climate-Biogeochemical Interactions in the Tropical Oceans 1. How does subsurface dissolved oxygen in the tropical ocean respond to variability in ocean circulation and ventilation? 2. What are the sensitivities and feedbacks linking low or variable oxygen levels and key nutrient source sink mechanisms? In the benthos? In the water column? 3. What are the magnitudes and time scales of past, present and likely future variations in oceanic oxygen and nutrient levels? On the regional scale? On the global scale? Coordinator: D. Wallace IFM-GEOMAR

TACE: Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment Tropical Atlantic Observations Coordinator: P. Brandt IFM-GEOMAR & B. Johns RSMAS

German Excellence Initiative “… excellence in marine science at CAU & partners …” “The Future Ocean” understand future ocean change explore new marine resources cope with marine hazards

Network Strategy “… new initiatives on FUTURE OCEAN issues …” Expand existing multidisciplinary scientific expertise (14 new junior research groups). Strengthen Kiel marine research by enhancing the enabling infrastructure. Bridge gaps between education, science and application.Expand existing multidisciplinary scientific expertise (14 new junior research groups). Strengthen Kiel marine research by enhancing the enabling infrastructure. Bridge gaps between education, science and application.

New Programs in Europe and Germany Science Programs Infrastructure Programs EU - FP7 collaborations Germany Kiel THOR (and 2 other prop.) EU-ARGOEuroSITESEMSO/ESONET NORDATLANTIK “The Future Ocean” “Tropical SFB” There is a continued strong interest to work with the international and in particular the US research and operational communities on all the aspects of “Climate and Ocean Observations” German-ARGO

Ocean Observatories Full IFM-GEOMAR operated In part IFM-GEOMAR operated Planned for 2006 Moored observatories operated by IFM-GEMAR scientists in the Atlantic

North Atlantic Subpolar-Gyre Workshop Scientific Steering Committee: Co-Chairs: Ruth Curry (WHOI) and Claus Böning (IFM-GEOMAR) Members: Fritz Schott (IFM-GEOMAR), Annemarie Treguier (IFREMER), Monika Rhein (Uni Bremen), Tom Haine (John Hopkins, Baltimore), Nicolas Gruber (ETH, Zürich), Martin Visbeck (IFM-GEOMAR), David Marshall (U. Reading) March 2007 Kiel Germany Website: id=subpolar-gyre

Kiel Excellence Cluster Received 36 M Euro over a five year period to “sharpen the research profile of the university”