THE POLICY PERSPECTIVE ON DEVELOPING AN INTEGRATED STATISTICS PROGRAMME IN SUPPORT OF 2008 SNA IMPLEMENTATION 1 Presented by Hazel Corbin Statistics Adviser, ECCB Palm Haven Hotel Saint Lucia 3 to 7 February, 2014

OUTLINE Integrated Economic Statistics The needs of ECCU Policymakers National Strategy for Statistics Core Set of Indicators Needed Linking of the SNA Strategy to National Strategy Conclusion 2

Integrated Economic Statistics Integrated Economic Statistics (IES) provide a consistent and reliable assessment of a country’s economic activity for policy and analytical uses. Guidelines are based on Internationally adopted standards The principles include the design of strategic plans for integration of micro and macro data 3

Integrated Economic Statistics Policymakers need IES that are consistent with other economic statistics and indicators produced by NSS. The needs of policymakers should be the basis of a country’s plans for developing better IEA. Some of the benefits of IES are: – consistency between short-term indicators and macroeconomic data on the state of the economy – consistency across sectors in depicting trends – consistency across countries for key measures such as GDP, inflation, international trade etc. 4

Integrated Economic Statistics Some of the benefits of IES (continued): – transparency and consistency in concepts and definitions – greater accuracy in economic data through reconciliation – reduction in reporting burden for business respondents – more relevant statistics that quickly address user needs The challenges of IES include: - Need for resources to be invested in adopting statistical standards 5

The Statistical Domains Covered in Integrated Economic Statistics Domain 1. Demographic and social statistics 1.2 Labour 1.5 Income and consumption Domain 2. Economic statistics 2.1 Macroeconomic statistics 2.2 Economic accounts 2.3 Business statistics 2.4 Sectoral statistics Agriculture, forestry, fisheries Energy Mining, manufacturing, construction Transport Tourism Banking, insurance, financial statistics 2.5 Government finance, fiscal and public sector statistics 2.6 International trade and balance of payments 2.7 Prices 2.8 Labour costs 2.9 Science, technology and innovation Domain 3. Environment and multi-domain statistics 3.1 Environment Domain 4. Methodology of data collection, processing, dissemination and analysis Domain 5. Strategic and managerial issues of official statistics 6

ECCU COUNTRIES FACE A NUMBER OF COMMON CHALLENGES 7

POLICY ISSUES The four major challenges – 1. Financial Stability, Consolidation and Development – 2. Debt Management – 3. Fiscal Reform; and – 4. Growth and Competitiveness 8

The public debt to GDP across the region has averaged 84.3 per cent of GDP for the last 10 years. A consequence of the persistent fiscal deficits is a large public debt portfolio Target is debt to GDP ratio of 60 per cent by 2020 Per capita GDP for currency union is EC$ 11, Target is a doubling in per capita incomes by 2027 The target for overall balance is 3 per cent of GDP 9 Policy Targets

Target of current revenue to GDP is 28 to 32 per cent of GDP Target for current expenditure to GDP is between 22 to 26 per cent of GDP 10 Policy Targets

Resolution Strategy The Economic Union and Single Financial and Economic Space The ECCB Eight Point Stabilization and Growth Programme Carefully calibrated three-pronged growth strategy: 11

Resolution Strategy Stimulus package to alleviate somewhat the decline in domestic income. Tourism centered industrial policy. Seven modernising sectors Establishment of Objectives for growth rate, unemployment rate, poverty levels, human development indices 12

High Frequency Indicators Set 1 National Accounts Set 2 Production and Turnover Set 3 Price Indicators Set 4 Labour Market Indicators Set 5 External Sector Indicators Set 6 Financial Sector Indicators Set 7 General Government Sector Indicators Set 8 Household Sector Indicators Set 9 Non-Financial Corporations Sector Indicators Set 10 Financial Market Indicators Set 11 Real Estate Market Indicators Set 12 Economic Sentiment 13

Core Set of Indicators Needed A core set of indicators are needed in order to adequately address the challenges relating to financial stability, consolidation and development; debt management; fiscal reform; and growth and competitiveness, The national economic strategy will need to outline performance measures that will guide the provision of certain statistical data sets to promote evidence based decision making. 14

Core Set of Indicators Needed An examination of a countries policies will highlight which set of core indicators are needed based on policy makers needs. Example in the area of growth and competiveness countries may need to supply policy makers with quarterly GDP; quarterly BOP and other short-term indicators in a timely manner in order to inform decision making. 15

National Strategy For Development of Statistics 16 NSDS should form part of an overall national economic strategy. The objectives of NSDS would: – Strengthen the institutional framework of NSS and the coordinating role of the CSO – Improve the quality and quantity of statistics in priority areas – Improve the accessibility and dissemination of statistical information – Mainstream statistics within the emerging framework for monitoring and evaluation of a country’s development activities and their contribution to national targets

National Strategy For Development of Statistics A NSDS enables developing countries to build a reliable statistical system that produces the data necessary to design, implement, and monitor national development policies and programmes. They also help countries meet their regional and international commitments with respect to statistics (Millennium Development Goals, regional integration processes, etc.) 17

National Strategy For Development of Statistics In other words, a NSDS is a platform that allows statistical activities, capacity development, and infrastructure improvements to be planned. This platform also enables stakeholders in the NSS (sectoral ministries, central bank, national statistical office, etc.) as well as technical and financial partners to co-ordinate their efforts through appropriate mechanisms. 18

Linking of SNA Strategy to National Strategy National Accounts are key indicators for describing the national economy and interactions with the international economy The statement of strategy on the implementation of 2008 SNA high level goals are: – Improving the scope, quality and timeliness of NA statistics – Minimizing response burden to data suppliers – Increasing the use of administrative data – Achieving cost effectiveness using best practices – Raising public awareness and use of NA and economic statistics 19

Linking of SNA Strategy to National Strategy Specific goals are: – To compile national accounts according to the SNA implementation, comprising the minimum required data set – To develop a national central data hub for short term economic statistics to facilitate the early detection of changes in economic activity as reflected by the national accounts The SNA strategy should be linked to the National Strategy to ensure that the provision of any data aligns with the countries overall statistical needs to measure the effectiveness of their policies. 20

Conclusion Statistical agenda and priorities should be policy relevant and remain policy relevant over time. Engagement of different stakeholders at the national and regional policy community as well as development partners is key in fostering regular data collection programmes. Such collaboration will ensure timely and coherent statistics that provide relevant information to policy makers and the public at large. 21

THE END Thank you for your attention 22