Visualizing Coastal Vulnerability and People for the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) Gregg Verutes, Greg Guannel, Katie Arkema and Spencer Wood April 23, 2012

About NCA (National Climate Assessment) Incorporate advances in climate science into larger social, ecological, and policy systems The next NCA is scheduled to be completed in 2013 – Evaluate the effectiveness of our mitigation and adaptation activities – Help federal gov’t prioritize climate science investments – Provide science to communities to plan more sustainably for future NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS

Project Motivations and Goals Climate change will vastly increase the vulnerability of people and property to coastal hazards. – Nationwide, more than one-third of the U.S. population currently lives in the coastal zone. – Accelerated rise in sea level and increases in storm intensity…conflicts between people, development and natural processes will increase, causing economic and societal impacts (Titus et al 2009) Vulnerability to erosion hazards depends both on physical and social characteristics of coastlines. NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS

InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model role of habitat Highlight the role of habitat in reducing vulnerability of people and infrastructure to erosion and flooding from sea level rise and storms EROSION FLOODING NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS

GEOMORPHOLOGY Sandy Beach Rocky Coast 1 NATURAL HABITATS 2 WIND EXPOSURE 3 WAVE EXPOSURE 4 RELIEF 5 SEA LEVEL RISE 6 CV Model Inputs NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS

VARIABLES: RANK Geomorphology 2.Natural habitat 3.Wind Exposure 4.Wave Exposure 5.Sea Level Rise 6.Relief 7.Surge Potential Vulnerability Index NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS

Outputs from NatCap Demo Sites

No Habitat Difference Habitat Effect of habitats on vulnerability to coastal storms and 1.4 m SLR Coastal Population Low High

Habitats Data Gathered West Coast East Coast Gulf Coast Alaska Hawaii NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS

Summary of Natural Habitats West CoastGulf Coast East Coast Alaska Hawaii Forest Wetlands Aquatic Beds Eelgrass Kelp (113 Mb) Forest Wetlands Aquatic Beds Corals (1 Mb) Forest Wetlands Aquatic Beds Kelp Seagrass Dunes (High and Low) (116 Mb) Forest Wetlands Aquatic Beds Corals Dunes (High and Low) Seagrass Oyster (78 Mb) Forest Wetlands Aquatic Beds Dunes (High and Low) Seagrass Oyster (122 Mb) Total = ~ 0.5 Gb NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS

American Community Survey (ACS) (2006 – 2010, 5 yr. estimates) Total Population People Age 65+ Families Below the Poverty Line Zillow (U.S. Real Estate Info) Average Property Value Social Metrics NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS

Southern California Example Mapping human settlements with land cover and Census data NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS

Land Stewardship (Public vs. Private) GAP STATUS 1 = Public, non-extractive 2 = Public, non-extractive 3 = Public, extractive 4 = Private NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS

LULC ( NLCD 2006 )ID USGS Dasymetric Mapping tool Open Water114Uninhabited Developed, Open Space214Uninhabited Developed, Low Intensity223Non-urban Inhabited Developed, Med Intensity232Low Density Residential Developed, High Intensity241High Density Residential Barren Land314Uninhabited Mixed Forest434Uninhabited Woody Wetlands904Uninhabited ……4All Uninhabited NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS Land Use / Land Cover: Map People

4 SLR scenarios Comparing Habitat vs. Loss of Habitat – Difference – Juxtaposed Maps Statewide Comparisons WATXCAORMILAFLALSCGAMDNCVADENJCTNYRIMANHME NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS

Nature’s Protection for People from Sea Level Rise and Storms

Extra Slides

Analysis Coastline Rasterize the coastline into pixels – Vancouver Isle.  250m (default) – Monterey Bay  50m – NCA: Entire U.S  1km 1km Fetch Filter vs. Sheltered Exposed NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS

Sea Level Rise Spatial Variation in Rank Low SLR Scenario NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS

NCA Vulnerability Scenarios Scenario # Sea Level RiseNatural Habitat 1TrendHabitat 2TrendNo Habitat 3LowHabitat 4LowNo Habitat 5MediumHabitat 6MediumNo Habitat 7HighHabitat 8HighNo Habitat NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS

Dasymetric Mapping Distributing people for the Santa Cruz Area LULC LIMITATIONS 1.All built infrastructure assumed to contain people 2.Tree canopy masks some smaller residential development (e.g. wealthy suburbs) *Ideally we use parcel information* NCA CV MODEL INPUTS / DATA PREP SOCIAL METRICS EARLY RESULTS