Tropical Cyclone Information Processing System (TIPS) Li Yuet Sim Hong Kong Observatory May 2009

Major Functions Integrate all TC related information and data Assimilate TC track data for computation of an ensemble track for operational forecasting Compute key parameters for evaluating local impact to facilitate warning decisions Generate and dispatch forecast and warning products to the local public and other weather centres

TC Warning Bulletins/Messages TC within 10-30N, E, issue 3-hourly shipping warning TC within 0-30N, E, issue additional GMDSS urgent messages Provide a short synopsis including actual position, intensity, max wind speed, movement, high wind radii, etc) Provide 24-hourly TC forecast position and intensity up to 72 hours ahead for shipping warning

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING (sample 3-hrly shipping warning bulletin) AT UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU (0813) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (26.0 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT UTC TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT UTC TWO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (28.3 N) ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (126.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT UTC TWO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (29.3 N) ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (128.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

TC Products for the Public over the Internet Provide TC tracks twice a day Provide TC tracks in every 3 hours

System Design and Architecture of TIPS Client-server architecture Programming language – Java

Data sources Subjective forecast positions from HKO and other meteorological centres TC analysis data, such as satellite and radar fixes NWP model forecast positions (HKO, CMA, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO and NCEP) Satellite and radar images

Major Features of TIPS 1.TC Analysis 2.TC Forecasting 3.Decision Support 4.Data for downstream systems 5.Past TC Track Display 6.Handy Tools 7.Online Help

Major Features of TIPS 1.TC Analysis 2.TC Forecasting 3.Decision Support 4.Data for downstream systems 5.Past TC Track Display 6.Handy Tools 7.Online Help

Toolbox EC – ECMWF UK – EGRR JA – JMA NC – NCEP R2 – 20-km ORSM R6 – 60-km ORSM CM – CMA JE – JMA ensemble cluster EE – ECMWF ensemble mean TE – ensemble mean of Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System EN – Model ensemble

Display of Forecast Tracks from NWP Models & Other Meteorological Centres

Plotting of Satellite and Radar Fixes

Overlaying of Satellite and Radar Images

Major Features of TIPS 1.TC Analysis 2.TC Forecasting 3.Decision Support 4.Data for downstream systems 5.Past TC Track Display 6.Handy Tools 7.Online Help

Calculation of Ensemble Track with data from NWP models

Motion Vector Consensus JMA ECMF NCEP EGRR Ensemble Calculation of Ensemble Track

Motion Vector Consensus JMA ECMF NCEP EGRR Ensemble Calculation of Ensemble Track 72

Motion Vector Consensus - Example Motion Vector Position Fengshen 2008/06/18 12UTC Calculation of Ensemble Track

EPS Strike Probability Maps

Modification of TC track

Major Features of TIPS 1.TC Analysis 2.TC Forecasting 3.Decision Support 4.Data for downstream systems 5.Past TC Track Display 6.Handy Tools 7.Online Help

Decision Support Critical information: distance and time of TC’s closest approach to HK, location and time of landfall, onset and cessation of strong and gale force winds, etc. Probability contours of gale & strong winds

Probability Forecast of Strong/Gale Winds Strong wind probability isopleths for 4 out of 8 reference stations Gale wind probability isopleths for CLK 10% 100% 50%

Calculation of Key Parameters 1.Choose TC track and track initial time. 2.Choose intensity or other categories. 3.Select overlays by checking the boxes. 4.User can scroll down to find more overlays. Repeat 2-4 to select all overlays you want. 5.Click [Calculate] to generate the report (Analysis  Calculate Key Parameters)

Prediction of Local Storm Surge Levels

Local wind direction vs TC position

TC Rainfall Forecasting Tool – Analogue Method

Evening Thunderstorms Forecasting Tool

Hot Zones Red zone Tmax  34  C Blue zone T / STS Green zone TS / TD

Major Features of TIPS 1.TC Analysis 2.TC Forecasting 3.Decision Support 4.Data for downstream systems 5.Past TC Track Display 6.Handy Tools 7.Online Help

TIPS Data for Downstream Systems MINDS Centralized database Product Generation Server Other applications Shipping warning bulletin, GMDSS TC message, etc. TC track for local public over the Internet, etc. Other forecasting systems using TC information

Generation of Forecast Bulletins and Warning Products for the Public

Major Features of TIPS 1.TC Analysis 2.TC Forecasting 3.Decision Support 4.Data for downstream systems 5.Past TC Track Display 6.Handy Tools 7.Online Help

Display past TC warning tracks

Overlay  Show Past Tracks Display past TC warning tracks Show past 5 or 10 warning tracks Red dots show the past TC forecast position at T+0 T + 0hr T + 24hrs T + 48hrs

Major Features of TIPS 1.TC Analysis 2.TC Forecasting 3.Decision Support 4.Data for downstream systems 5.Past TC Track Display 6.Handy Tools 7.Online Help

Handy Tools An electronic version of common handy tools to facilitate forecasts in analyzing TC information.

Major Features of TIPS 1.TC Analysis 2.TC Forecasting 3.Decision Support 4.Data for downstream systems 5.Past TC Track Display 6.Handy Tools 7.Online Help

Online User Manual

Thank You!