An Adaptive Management Model for the Red River Basin of the North

Adaptive Management

Elements of Adaptive Management

Workshop Sequence

Bounding the Problem Actions Human activities and inputs we are interested in manipulating – the “levers” Indicators Critical system outputs that we will use to assess the effects of actions Driving Variables Factors external to system such as weather, commodity prices Space Extent and resolution Time Extent and resolution Actions Human activities and inputs we are interested in manipulating – the “levers” Indicators Critical system outputs that we will use to assess the effects of actions Driving Variables Factors external to system such as weather, commodity prices Space Extent and resolution Time Extent and resolution

Adaptive Management Models Dynamic simulation models (not optimizations) Intended to understand system dynamics not generate detailed predictions. Interdisciplinary – look at interactions between hydrology, agriculture, crop diseases etc. Policy relevant “Aids to thinking” - Explore alternative hypotheses and scenarios What if …Climate change, policy change, etc. Dynamic simulation models (not optimizations) Intended to understand system dynamics not generate detailed predictions. Interdisciplinary – look at interactions between hydrology, agriculture, crop diseases etc. Policy relevant “Aids to thinking” - Explore alternative hypotheses and scenarios What if …Climate change, policy change, etc.

The Red River Basin of the North

Study area (Ecoregions)

Red River Basin (~125,000 km2)

THEN NOW

Digital Elevation Model data

Population estimates for the Red River Basin on a 1 km2 grid

1997 Red River Flooding

1997 Flooding at Grand Forks

Flood and Fire Damage at Grand Forks

St Vincent in 1997 Flood

Commodity Price Trends

North Dakota Census Data

Red River Basin Model

Broad Project Objectives To distill from the multiplicity of causal factors a simple systems model that can be used to explore the natural, economic and social dynamics observed in the Red River Basin. To use the model to explore alternative policies with stakeholders and decision makers To distill from the multiplicity of causal factors a simple systems model that can be used to explore the natural, economic and social dynamics observed in the Red River Basin. To use the model to explore alternative policies with stakeholders and decision makers

Issues to explore with model Land use interactions with hydrology. Impacts of policies, incentive programs etc. Crop diseases in response to cropping patterns. Feasibility of alternate crops and crop rotations. Water quality issues. Impacts of climate change. Land use interactions with wildlife. Land use interactions with hydrology. Impacts of policies, incentive programs etc. Crop diseases in response to cropping patterns. Feasibility of alternate crops and crop rotations. Water quality issues. Impacts of climate change. Land use interactions with wildlife.

Detailed Objectives of first Phase Explore initial sub models for: Farm economics Crop diseases Crop production Driving weather/climate variables Hydrology routine to generate inputs to other models Etc … Framework for linking sub-models at the basin level. Initial compilation of datasets at the basin level. Plan for continued of model development and analysis. Explore initial sub models for: Farm economics Crop diseases Crop production Driving weather/climate variables Hydrology routine to generate inputs to other models Etc … Framework for linking sub-models at the basin level. Initial compilation of datasets at the basin level. Plan for continued of model development and analysis.

Conceptual Model

Draft (!) Balaton Conceptual Model

Styles of Modelling

Current Model Status

Hydrologic Units

STATSGO and CANSIS Soils data

Administrative areas (counties, rural municipalities)

Land Cover for the Red River Basin USGS Land Use/Land Cover System Legend (Modified Level 2) Value Code Class Name Urban and Built-Up Land Dryland Cropland and Pasture Irrigated Cropland and Pasture Mixed Dryland/Irrigated Cropland and Pasture Cropland/Grassland Mosaic Cropland/Woodland Mosaic Grassland Shrubland Mixed Shrubland/Grassland Savanna Deciduous Broadleaf Forest Deciduous Needleleaf Forest Evergreen Broadleaf Forest Evergreen Needleleaf Forest Mixed Forest Water Bodies Herbaceous Wetland Wooded Wetland Barren or Sparsely Vegetated Herbaceous Tundra Wooded Tundra Mixed Tundra Bare Ground Tundra Snow or Ice 100 NO DATA

Ecoregions relevant to the Red River Basin

Locations of centers of VEMAP weather cells

Spatial Representation

Nested Time Steps

Model developed for Windows PC Visual Basic Microsoft Access Uses ArcView 3.2 at present for mapping Uses Excel for chart and tabular output Model developed for Windows PC Visual Basic Microsoft Access Uses ArcView 3.2 at present for mapping Uses Excel for chart and tabular output Implementation

Various run time options Weather data options Can vary scope of model Critical to manage indicators … Various run time options Weather data options Can vary scope of model Critical to manage indicators … Running the Model

Multiple saved scenarios Indicators at various time steps and spatial resolutions View maps at a time View charts/tables for one or more spatial units or indicators Multiple saved scenarios Indicators at various time steps and spatial resolutions View maps at a time View charts/tables for one or more spatial units or indicators Viewing outputs

Hydrology Sub-model Initial model implemented Penman Monteith Equation Some model analysis completed Model has not yet been refined based on observations Initial model implemented Penman Monteith Equation Some model analysis completed Model has not yet been refined based on observations

Example Model Output

Water contributed to flow from different hydrologic units in June

Tension soil water in May

Tension soil water available in August

Flow at Fargo

100 year base run Flows at Grand Forks 100 year base run Flows at Grand Forks

100 year base run Flows at Grand Forks (Moving Average) 100 year base run Flows at Grand Forks (Moving Average)

100 year base run Flows at Grand Forks (Moving Average) 100 year base run Flows at Grand Forks (Moving Average)

Effects of Vegetation on flow (A crude analysis!) Effects of Vegetation on flow (A crude analysis!)

Summary Simple integrated systems model Include both “hard science” such as hydrology with less certain aspects Developed in a stakeholder process Explicit recognition of uncertainties Focus is not on prediction Model used to explore different scenarios (What if …) Simple integrated systems model Include both “hard science” such as hydrology with less certain aspects Developed in a stakeholder process Explicit recognition of uncertainties Focus is not on prediction Model used to explore different scenarios (What if …)