World supply and demand of tilapia Helga Josupeit Rome INFOFISH Tilapia Conference, Kuala Lumpur, October 2010

Outline world productionworld production world exports,world exports, –with special emphasis on China world importsworld imports –with special emphasis on the US market Forecast for 2015Forecast for 2015 SummarySummary

World tilapia production

Tilapia production by major countries

World tilapia production by species

Tilapia Aquaculture production (2008, by region, in tonnes)

Aquaculture production (2000 versus 2008, by region, in tonnes)

Trade flow, China 2009 (in tonnes) Total Chinese tilapia exports: tonnes

Chinese tilapia exports Jan-Dec Jan-Jun (1000 tonnes) USA Mexico Russia Israel Germany Hong Kong Belgium Puerto Rico Dominican Rep Canada Others Total

Trade flow estimates, excluding China 2009 (in tonnes) Total tilapia exports excluding China : tonnes

Trade flow estimates comparison (in tonnes) USA, Canada and Mexico (Russia + EU)

Trade flow estimates 2009 (in tonnes) increase by 70% huge increase double moderate increase disappeared sharp decline stable disappeared

Import estimates 2009 (in tonnes, product weight)

US tilapia imports 1000 tonnes

US tilapia imports Jan-Dec Jan-Jun (1000 tonnes) China Indonesia Taiwan PC Ecuador Thailand Honduras Costa Rica Others Total Source: GLOBEFISH

Frozen tilapia fillets in the US wholesale market (US$/lb)

Fresh tilapia fillets in the US wholesale market (US$/lb)

Supply estimates 2009 (in tonnes, liveweight equivalent)

Past Supply trends imports growing supply growing supply limited domestic production stagnant, one third of supply from imports imports growing, all supply from imports supply mainly from domestic production, which is growing, exports declining more than half of production goes to exports, production stabilizes production growing, almost no exports, limited imports imports stable, all supply from imports some small imports production growing strongly, mainly for domestic market

Tilapia forecast – scenario 1: no further growth in China forecast 2015: 4.6 million tonnes

Tilapia forecast – scenario 2: growth in China forecast 2015: 5 million tonnes

Supply trends – 2015 imports stable supply stable supply limited domestic production stagnant, half of supply from imports imports stable, all supply from imports supply mainly from domestic production, which is growing, exports almost nil more than half of production goes to exports, production stabilizes production growing, almost no exports, limited imports imports declining, all supply from imports some small imports production growing strongly, mainly for domestic market Overall: supply in developed countries will stabilize, increased production all for Asian and Latin American market

World tilapia exports Trade relatively unimportant, but expandingTrade relatively unimportant, but expanding Total world trade can be estimated atTotal world trade can be estimated at MT (product weight), which is double the figure of only three years ago China by far main exporter. accounting for almost 90% of total exportsChina by far main exporter. accounting for almost 90% of total exports Share of China in total trade growingShare of China in total trade growing

Outlook for tilapia supply Supply continues to expand, especially in South East AsiaSupply continues to expand, especially in South East Asia Some increases in Latin AmericaSome increases in Latin America China will increase presence on market, especially targeting EuropeChina will increase presence on market, especially targeting Europe However, the production in China likely to stabilizeHowever, the production in China likely to stabilize More value addition in developing countriesMore value addition in developing countries Investment by foreign companies in tilapia farmsInvestment by foreign companies in tilapia farms

Outlook for tilapia demand Demand is strong and growing in the USADemand is strong and growing in the USA Very good market in Latin AmericaVery good market in Latin America Demand in Europe still slow, and as the market is well supplied with pangasius and Nile perch, unlikely that there will be a strong growthDemand in Europe still slow, and as the market is well supplied with pangasius and Nile perch, unlikely that there will be a strong growth Demand in South East strong, and supplied by domestic and regional tradeDemand in South East strong, and supplied by domestic and regional trade

Thank you for your kind attention