F. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division 1 Addressing Critical Skills Shortages in Tropical Cyclone Research Frank Marks Director, NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division Lead, NOAA HFIP Co-chair, OFCM WG/TCR 23 September 2009

F. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division 2 Work within NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) to advance understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones (TC) through observations, numerical models, and theory, with emphasis on processes within inner part of storm. GOALS: Advance prediction of TC intensity and structure change (INTENSITY); Improve prediction of TC track (TRACK); and Enhance ability to diagnose and predict impacts of TC on life and property (IMPACTS) WHO: AOML/Hurricane Research Division (36 employees: 22 FTE, 14 CI) -19 research, 1 post-docs, 16 support, 4-5 summer students 11 HFIP teams with representatives from AOC, NCEP (EMC, NHC), OAR (AOML, ESRL, GFDL), NESDIS, DTC, JHT, JCSDA, NRL

F. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division 3 Goals Improve Forecast Accuracy –Hurricane impact areas (track) – 50% in 10 years –Severity (intensity) – 50% in 10 years –Storm surge impact locations and severity Extend forecast reliability out to 7 days Quantify, bound and reduce forecast uncertainty to enable risk management decisions

F. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division 4 OBJECTIVE: Significantly improve forecast guidance with modeling systems capturing range of natural variability in tropical cyclone track, intensity and structure with sufficient fidelity to predict rapid intensity changes with minimal uncertainty. ensembles V TMAX

F. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division 5 WHAT: Improve HFS/GFS to reduce error in track and intensity forecasts Optimize new and existing observing systems to enhance research and operations capabilities and impacts Expand forecast tools and applications to aid forecasters FF

F. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division 6 How to get there?  Science –Higher resolution coupled models – critical to storm evolution forecasts – especially intensity changes –Forecast techniques to understand, reduce and communicate forecast uncertainty  Information Technology –Increased computing power - to run advanced hurricane/global models and reduce uncertainty –Services oriented IT architecture for inter-agency data exchange  Observations –Improved use of existing and planned systems –New observations  Improved Products for Forecasters

F. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division 7 Focus on transition to operations: Guide and accelerate HFS improvements Develop observing system strategy analysis capability Fully fund transition of research to operations Increase high performance computing (res & ops) Coordinate with research community – Work closely with federal, academic, and private sector communities to broaden base of expertise in tropical cyclone research community HOW?: DOTSTAR IFEX/RAINEX CBLAST IFEX/TCSP

F. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division 8 Critical skills needed to accomplish our mission include: –Basic meteorological, physical science, or oceanographic training with an emphasis on advanced degrees (MS and PhD, i.e., research skills), –Computer programming and other IT specialist positions (network, system, and database management). –Beyond basic skills and training we look for specialties; e.g.: numerical modeling, data assimilation, tropical meteorology, air-sea interaction, radar meteorology, oceanography, Programming (particularly FORTRAN), and HPC experience ( Massively Parallel Interface (MPI) programming; UNIX scripting) –Critical skills are part of NOAA standard position descriptions (PD) for series 1340 meteorologists, 1330 oceanographers, 1320 physical scientist, and 2210 IT specialists. Critical Skills

F. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division 9 OFCM and NOAA HFIP planning documents noted shortages in certain skill sets. These include: Modeling in tropics: few university programs have emphasis on NWP, and even fewer have emphasis in tropical meteorological problems. Data assimilation: very few university programs emphasize data assimilation – mainly done at major NWP centers. Observational analysis: more university graduates are doing modeling research than observational analysis – less time to complete degree Programming: all major NWP models written in FORTRAN yet it is not taught in universities – emphasis on JAVA, C++, Perl, Python, etc. Software and System Engineering: all NWP HPC systems are MPI clusters requiring skilled engineers to optimize model code to scale on MPI systems. Hard to attract skills because competition with industry Scientific management: understanding scientific process & interaction of development and resources. Dealing with reports, proposals, corporate visibility and HQ requests Skills Shortages

F. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division 10 Limitations: – Universities do not provide sufficient practical training and experience – DOC mandates that Civil Servant must be U.S. Citizen – Civil Service positions are subject to managed quotas in OAR Ratio of Civil Service to Contractors ≥1 Civil Service positions rarely available without attrition (retirement) So: New recruits via post-doc (NRC or CI) or through conversion of CI scientist – Takes 1-2 years before new recruit becomes fully functioning team member CI and post-doc programs help – Recruit talented Post-docs or graduate students – Provides training, practical experience, and filters recruits – Costs staff time Use CI for Foreign Nationals until they become US Citizens Hiring of Master’s Students – NOAA provide support education opportunities to Doctoral level Take full advantage of NOAA education scholarships (Hollings Scholars, EPP, Grad Sci Program) to expose students to NOAA research earlier Summer Internship Program Attractive Working environment – Cutting edge technologies (HPC, NOAA aircraft) Addressing shortages

F. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division 11 Develop long-term partnerships with university faculty to insure they are using NOAA research tools and applications (HPC, models, DA systems) Encourage more emphasis on tropical NWP and tropical meteorology in general Broaden IT specialist training to address important skill sets to NOAA (FORTRAN, MPI management and engineering) Continue support of NOAA educational programs like Hollings Scholar, EPP and Grad Sci Program Continue support of post-doc programs Recommendations

F. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division 12 Questions?

F. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division 13 HOW?: NOAA HFIP Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX) IFEX Partnership (HRD, NCEP, NESDIS, & AOC) to improve TC forecasts 1.Collect targeted observations throughout TC life cycle for DA of core circulation in and around storm-scale circulation to evaluate HWRF in variety of atmospheric/oceanic conditions to assess observed & model TC intensity/structure changes 2.Improve physical understanding and high-resolution model representation of Air-sea interactions Impact of dry air (SAL) Convective processes Vortex dynamics

F. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division 14 HOW?: NOAA Hurricane Field Program: Each year HRD scientists coordinate NOAA WP-3D and G-IV aircraft flight hours are used for TC operations and research (IFEX). HRD works with NWS and NESDIS to design and execute (fly on aircraft) experiments to collect data for operations (NHC and EMC) in support of real-time analysis and model initialization, and to study TC behavior over the storm life cycle (track, intensity, and structure). Transmit real-time information to NHC and NCEP/ EMC via SATCOM. Airborne workstation produces dropsonde, flight-level, and radar (reflectivity and Doppler) products for transmission. Scientists analyze observational and model data, and publish papers describing results.