Overview and Status of the Emissions Data Analysis and Modeling Portions of the Virginia Mercury Study 1 st Technical Meeting Richmond, VA 31 May 2007 Presented by Sharon Douglas and Jay Haney ICF International, San Rafael, CA

Presentation Topics Study objectives Emissions data analysis Project overview & work plan Mercury emissions review Mercury deposition modeling Project overview & work plan Conceptual model of mercury deposition for Virginia Upcoming tasks/schedule

Study Objectives Review the Virginia mercury point source inventory and update as needed Prepare “conceptual description” of mercury deposition characteristics for Virginia Conduct air quality modeling to simulate and quantify the contribution of regional and local emissions, and to provide information for TMDL assessments Evaluate the effectiveness of future national and state control measures to meet water quality goals

Section A: Emissions Data Analysis Task 1: Point source inventory review* Task 2: Mercury inventory summary* Task 3: Literature search* Task 4: Emissions report Task 5: Data archive/transfer Task 6: Quality assurance plan* Task 7: Project management *More details to follow

Overview of Work Plan for Task 1: Point Source Inventory Review Obtain 2002 and 2005 Virginia point source inventory Review for accuracy and completeness Update and fill in missing information needed for modeling

Overview of Work Plan for Task 2: Mercury Inventory Summary Obtain latest (2002) national mercury inventory from EPA Review and compare emissions for Virginia & neighboring states Prepare future-year estimates for 2010, 2015, and 2018 for Virginia sources for modeling

Overview of Work Plan for Task 3: Literature Search Conduct literature search related to: Mercury emissions and controls Mercury concentration and deposition measurement studies Mercury deposition modeling techniques Incorporate findings from literature search into technical approach for modeling tasks

Overview of Work Plan for Task 6: Quality Assurance Plan Develop detailed quality assurance plan to address: Data acquisition Data quality assurance and processing procedures Model application procedures Internal and external review procedures Communication and resolution of issues Combined QAP for emissions data analysis & modeling

Status of Tasks to Date: Section A – Emissions Data Analysis (Study commenced 12 February 2007) Task 1: Point source inventory review (completed) Task 2: Mercury inventory summary (ongoing) Task 3: Literature search (ongoing) Task 4: Emissions report (not started) Task 5: Data archive/transfer (not started) Task 6: Quality assurance plan (completed) Task 7: Project management (ongoing)

Summary of Emissions Review & Data Analysis Tasks Obtained, reviewed & provided comments on Virginia point source inventory (updates received) Obtained latest 2002 EPA NEI (Version 3) national mercury inventory Compared NEI data with updated EPA Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) and latest Virginia inventory Requested latest 2002 national criteria modeling emission inventory from EPA

Virginia Speciated Mercury Point Source Emissions

Regional Mercury Emissions

Regional Speciated Mercury Emissions

Summary of Literature Review Initial document search conducted by VA DEQ Supplemental search focusing on recent ( ) work covering: General/state-specific studies Mercury emissions and controls Mercury concentration & deposition measurement studies Mercury deposition modeling techniques > 85 reports, presentations, etc. included Review of literature ongoing

Section B: Deposition Modeling Task 1: Conceptual model* Task 2: Modeling protocol Task 3: Sensitivity analysis* Task 4: Performance evaluation Task 5: Modeling simulations* Task 6: Mercury deposition modeling report Task 7: Data archive/transfer Task 8: Quality assurance plan Task 9: Project management *More details to follow

Task 1: Conceptual Model Obtain local and regional mercury deposition & meteorological data for the period Examine spatial & temporal variations in deposition and relationships with meteorology Conduct statistical analysis using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) software to develop and evaluate relationships Develop basis for processing & estimating data for model evaluation

Mercury Deposition Modeling Approach: Baseline Modeling 2001 Meteorological Inputs2002 Criteria Pollutant & Mercury Emissions Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model, Version 4.6 AERMOD Gaussian Model CMAQ Performance Evaluation CMAQ Sensitivity Analysis CMAQ Particle & Precursor Tagging Methodology (PPTM) Identification of Sources with Significant Local Contributions AERMOD Sensitivity Analysis Assessment of Global, National, Regional, and Source-Specific Contributions

Mercury Deposition Modeling Approach: Future-Year Modeling 2001 Meteorological Inputs Future-Year Criteria Pollutant & Mercury Emissions 2010, 2015 & 2018 CMAQ, Version 4.6 w/PPTM AERMOD Expected Future Changes in Local Contributions Assessment of Future Control Measure Effectiveness Future-Year Projections Future-Year Mercury Contribution Analysis Information for Water Quality Modeling, TMDL…

Proposed CMAQ Domain 36-km Grid 12-km Grid

Task 3: Sensitivity Analysis Determine modeling system configuration for regional (CMAQ) and point source (AERMOD) models Conduct CMAQ baseline and sensitivity simulations to examine the response of the modeling system to changes in the inputs (e.g., met inputs, emissions) Conduct screening AERMOD runs to identify possible local source contributions

Task 4: Model Performance Evaluation Focus on national, regional, and local scales Examine wet deposition for mercury using all measured data and “estimated” data for VA sites

Task 5: Modeling Simulations Conduct baseline modeling and use mercury “tagging” capabilities of CMAQ to quantify contributions from: Virginia sources Neighboring states All other states Canada/Mexico Global EGUs and non-EGUs

Task 5: Modeling Simulations (Continued) Prepare future-year modeling inventories for 2010, 2015, and 2018 Conduct future-year modeling with CMAQ and AERMOD to assess expected changes in mercury deposition, including effects of future controls

Status of Tasks: Section B – Deposition Modeling Task 1: Conceptual model (ongoing) Task 2: Modeling protocol (completed) Task 3: Sensitivity analysis (not started) Task 4: Performance evaluation ( ’’ ) Task 5: Modeling simulations ( ’’ ) Task 6: Mercury modeling report ( ’’ ) Task 7: Data archive/transfer ( ’’ ) Task 8: Quality assurance plan (completed) Task 9: Project management (ongoing)

Summary of Data Analysis/ Conceptual Model Task Obtained and processed Hg deposition & met data for Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) sites in VA and several surrounding states Analysis has focused on three VA sites and several additional sites in NC, PA, and TN with longer periods of record Analyses completed to date Annual & quarterly variations in deposition Wind roses CART analyses (for 3 VA, 3 NC, 2 PA & 1 TN sites) Met correlations & met adjusted trends Conceptual model write-up in progress

MDN Analysis Sites VA Sites Neighboring sites with similar characteristics & longer periods of record

Data Availability for MDN Analysis Sites

Quarterly Distribution of Hg Wet Deposition for VA Sites

Quarterly Distribution of Hg Wet Deposition for NC Sites NC42: Similar location & characteristics to Harcum

Quarterly Distribution of Hg Wet Deposition for VA98 & NC42 Sites

Quarterly Distribution of Hg Wet Deposition for PA Sites PA00: Similar characteristics to VA08; PA13: Similar characteristics to VA28

Quarterly Distribution of Hg Wet Deposition for VA08 & PA00 Sites

Quarterly Distribution of Hg Wet Deposition for VA28 & PA13 Sites

Quarterly Distribution of Hg Wet Deposition for TN Site

Correlation of Hg Wet Deposition w/Selected Met Parameters: VA TmaxTminRHWSSLP Rain#Days DTT850WS85WS70 VA08 VA28

Correlation of Hg Wet Deposition w/Selected Met Parameters: LP TmaxTmin RH WS SLP Rain#Days DTT850WS85WS70 PA13 NC42

Comparison of Annual Hg Wet Deposition & Rainfall Amount PA13 NC42

CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREE (CART) Statistical tool used to separate and group measurement periods into classification “bins” Bins are associated with a certain range of a classification variable (e.g., deposition amount) Classification is based on the value of other independent (e.g., meteorological) parameters Provides information about the conditions that are associated with different ranges of Hg deposition, as well as the frequency of occurrence of different types of conditions

SIMPLE EXAMPLE OF A CART “TREE” CART results take the form of an up-side-down classification “tree” - branches/splits and independent variables (data) determine the binning N = 52 N = 20N = 32 TMAX > 20 TMAX  20 RAIN  0.65WS  2 m/s RAIN > 0.65WS > 2 m/s BIN #1 CLASS = 2 Low/Moderate N=12 BIN #2 CLASS = 1 Low N=8 BIN #3 CLASS = 3 Moderate N = 20 BIN #4 CLASS = 4 High N = 12

CART APPLICATION FOR MERCURY WET DEPOSITION Time unit = MDN measurement period (typically one week) Classification variable is daily average mercury deposition (wet) 5 classification categories defined by 0, 0-20, , and >80 percentile values of measured deposition for each site 8 MDN sites within and just outside of VA Met parameters include temperature, pressure, humidity, stability, wind, and rainfall (amount & # of days) for surface & upper levels

Categorical Comparisons for Hg Deposition for Culpeper, VA Selected CART Input Parameters for 5 Hg Deposition Categories

Categorical Comparisons for Hg Deposition for Shenandoah NP, VA Selected CART Input Parameters for 5 Hg Deposition Categories

Categorical Comparisons for Hg Deposition for Harcum, VA Selected CART Input Parameters for 5 Hg Deposition Categories

CART RESULTS FOR CULPEPER, VA CART ObsObs 81% of “weekly” periods correctly classified 90% of high deposition (Category 5) periods correctly classified

CART RESULTS FOR SHENANDOAH NP, VA CART ObsObs 79% of “weekly” periods correctly classified 81% of high deposition (Category 5) periods correctly classified

CART RESULTS FOR HARCUM, VA CART ObsObs 80% of “weekly” periods correctly classified 93% of high deposition (Category 5) periods correctly classified

Cart Parameter Importance for Hg Deposition: Culpeper, VA Scale represents relative importance

Cart Parameter Importance for Hg Deposition: Shenandoah NP, VA Scale represents relative importance

Cart Parameter Importance for Hg Deposition: Harcum, VA Scale represents relative importance

CART-Based Meteorologically Adjusted Trends -- Deposition amounts adjusted based on frequency of occurrence of meteorological conditions -- Allow us to look at possible trends

Emissions Trends (TRI Data)

CART-Based Meteorologically Adjusted Trends w/Emissions VA emissions are tpy *1000 U.S. emissions are tpy *50

CART-Based Meteorologically Adjusted Trends w/Emissions VA emissions are tpy *1000 U.S. emissions are tpy *50

CART-Based Meteorologically Adjusted Trends w/Emissions VA emissions are tpy *1000 U.S. emissions are tpy *50

CART-Based Meteorologically Adjusted Trends w/Emissions VA emissions are tpy *1000 U.S. emissions are tpy *50

CART-Based Meteorologically Adjusted Trends w/Emissions VA emissions are tpy *1000 U.S. emissions are tpy *50

REMSAD Mercury Tagging Results: VA08

REMSAD Mercury Tagging Results: VA28

REMSAD Mercury Tagging Results: VA98

Conceptual Model Summary Hg deposition characteristics for longer- term are similar to those for VA sites Wet deposition has a seasonal component and, as expected, is correlated with rainfall Rainfall amount does not fully explain, however, the variations in deposition (there are other influences)

Conceptual Model Summary (Continued) Hg deposition and emissions trends for are mostly flat slight downward tendency for VA sites slight upward tendency for surrounding sites in the later years Prior modeling indicates the Hg deposition in VA is a combined result of wet & dry deposition from local, regional, national & global sources

Upcoming Work Section A tasks Complete inventory update & summary Estimate future year emissions Complete literature review Prepare emissions summary report Section B tasks Complete conceptual description Obtain/prepare 2002 criteria emissions inventory Conduct CMAQ & AERMOD performance evaluation Next status meeting: September?

Virginia Mercury Study Schedule Section A: Emissions Data Analysis Task 1: Point Source Inventory Review Task 2: Mercury Inventory Summary Task 3: Literature Search Task 4: Emissions Report Task 5: Data Archival/Transfer Task 6: Quality Assurance Plan Task 7: Project Management Section B: Deposition Modeling Task 1: Conceptual Model Task 2: Modeling Protocol Task 3: Sensitivity Analysis Task 4: Performance Evaluation Task 5: Modeling Simulations Task 6: Modeling Report Task 7: Data Archival/Transfer Task 8: Quality Assurance Plan Task 9: Project Management Task M A M A J J M1 F M3M2M4 F S O N D J F M A D D D D D D D D F F

Additional Technical Slides

Pairings of Hg Deposition & Met Sites