1 The U.S. Climate Change Science Program Peter Schultz, Ph.D. Director Climate Change Science Program Office Peter Schultz, Ph.D. Director Climate Change Science Program Office

2 Climate Change Science Program Vision: A nation and the global community empowered with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems. Mission: Facilitate the creation and application of knowledge of the Earth’s global environment through research, observations, decision support, and communication. Responsibility: Coordination and integration of scientific research on global variability and change sponsored by 13 participating departments and agencies of the U.S. Government.

3 State of the Science State of the Science “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.” IPCC WG1, 2007 “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid- 20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” IPCC WG1, 2007

4 State of the Science State of the Science “At the global scale the anthropogenic component of warming over the last three decades has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems.” IPCC WG2, 2007

5 The first three in a series of 22 Synthesis & Assessment Products

6 Arctic climate change Arctic climate change Abrupt climate change Abrupt climate change Thresholds of change in ecosystems… Thresholds of change in ecosystems… USGS Leadership on CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products

7 Arctic climate change Arctic climate change Abrupt climate change Abrupt climate change Thresholds of change in ecosystems… Thresholds of change in ecosystems… USGS Leadership on CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products Benchmark glacier monitoring

8 Arctic climate change Arctic climate change Abrupt climate change Abrupt climate change Thresholds of change in ecosystems… Thresholds of change in ecosystems… USGS Leadership on CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products

9 USGS Leadership on other Key Climate Issues  Water resources  Landscape change / sediment dynamics  Geological sequestration / carbon dynamics  Hydrocarbon repository identification Important relationships between fuel choices and climate (e.g., sulfur content; energy per GWP)

10 U.S. Fuel Portfolio for Stabilization at 550ppm (from CCSP S&A Product 2.1b) Energy Mix Scenarios Energy Mix Scenarios “A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can further diminish the risks associated with climate change.” IPCC WG2, 2007 “…there is substantial economic potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions over the coming decades, that could offset the projected growth of global emissions or reduce emissions below current levels.” IPCC WG3, 2007

11 The Economic Realities The Economic Realities