KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE Study on Container Throughput Forecasting for Shipping and Port Development Strategies in the APEC Region

CHANGES IN MARITIME ENVIRONMENT NEEDS FOR THE STRTEGIES OBJECTIVES METHODOLOGY SCHEDULE AND BUDGET CHANGES IN MARITIME ENVIRONMENT NEEDS FOR THE STRTEGIES OBJECTIVES METHODOLOGY SCHEDULE AND BUDGET CONTENTS Korea Maritime Institute

GLOBALIZATION GLOBALIZATION TRADE VOLUME INCREASE Changes in Global Economy Changes in Global Economy WTO REGIME (ECONOMIC LIBERALISM) WTO REGIME (ECONOMIC LIBERALISM) ECONOMIC BLOC (FTA) ECONOMIC BLOC (FTA) Korea Maritime Institute

CONTAINER PORT THROUGHPUT CONTAINER PORT THROUGHPUT Korea Maritime Institute

CHANGES IN CONTAINER SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT CHANGES IN CONTAINER SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT CHANGE CLIENT DEMANDS ALLIANCE, M&A INCREASING CONCENTRATION EMERGENCE OF BIG SHIP CHANGE CLIENT DEMANDS ALLIANCE, M&A INCREASING CONCENTRATION EMERGENCE OF BIG SHIP Korea Maritime Institute

CHANGES IN CONTAINER PORT CHANGES IN CONTAINER PORT CARRIER DIRVEN PORT DEVELOPMENT PRIVATIZATION MEGA HUB PORT INTERNATIONAL PORT OPERATOR ENVRONMENTAL PRESSURE CARRIER DIRVEN PORT DEVELOPMENT PRIVATIZATION MEGA HUB PORT INTERNATIONAL PORT OPERATOR ENVRONMENTAL PRESSURE Korea Maritime Institute

ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF APEC REGION ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF APEC REGION POPULATION: 2.5 billion (42.2% OF WORLD) GDP: US$ 18 trillion (in 2000) TRADE: 46.76% OF GLOBAL TRADE (in 2000) TOP 5 WORLD CONTAINER PORTS (IN 2001) : HK, SINGAPORE, BUSAN, KAOHSIUNG, SHANGHAI CONT. PORT THRUPUT: 139 m TEU (in 2000) : 61.5% of WORLD TOTAL POPULATION: 2.5 billion (42.2% OF WORLD) GDP: US$ 18 trillion (in 2000) TRADE: 46.76% OF GLOBAL TRADE (in 2000) TOP 5 WORLD CONTAINER PORTS (IN 2001) : HK, SINGAPORE, BUSAN, KAOHSIUNG, SHANGHAI CONT. PORT THRUPUT: 139 m TEU (in 2000) : 61.5% of WORLD TOTAL Korea Maritime Institute

NEED FOR STRATEGIES FOR PORT DEVELOPMENT AND SHIPPING NETWORK NEED FOR STRATEGIES FOR PORT DEVELOPMENT AND SHIPPING NETWORK PORT DEVELOPMENT : HUGE AND LONG-TERM INVESTMENT CARGO FORECATING - DEVELOPING COUNTIRES: NO FORECATING - DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: OVER FORECATING SHIPPING REQUIREMENT IN THE REGION PORT DEVELOPMENT : HUGE AND LONG-TERM INVESTMENT CARGO FORECATING - DEVELOPING COUNTIRES: NO FORECATING - DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: OVER FORECATING SHIPPING REQUIREMENT IN THE REGION Korea Maritime Institute

OBJECTIVES OF STUDY OBJECTIVES OF STUDY PROVIDING MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM PROSPECTS FOR SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT FORMULATING POLICY GUIDELINES FOR REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING ACCESSING THE IMPACT OF THE CHANGES IN MARITITME ENVIRONMENT PROVIDING MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM PROSPECTS FOR SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT FORMULATING POLICY GUIDELINES FOR REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING ACCESSING THE IMPACT OF THE CHANGES IN MARITITME ENVIRONMENT Korea Maritime Institute

METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY COLLECTING BASE DATA - CIY DATA - SURVEY TO PORT AUTHORITIES TOOL: UPGARDED MPPM COUTRY LEVEL SEMINARS COLLECTING BASE DATA - CIY DATA - SURVEY TO PORT AUTHORITIES TOOL: UPGARDED MPPM COUTRY LEVEL SEMINARS Korea Maritime Institute

UN/ESCAP Maritime Policy Planning Model (MPPM) UN/ESCAP Maritime Policy Planning Model (MPPM) DEVELOPED IN SUB-REGION STUDIES : ASEAN(1992), SOUTH ASIA(1993), EAST ASIA(1994) 1 INTRA REGIONAL STUDY (1997) REGIONAL SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT STUDY (2001) DEVELOPED IN SUB-REGION STUDIES : ASEAN(1992), SOUTH ASIA(1993), EAST ASIA(1994) 1 INTRA REGIONAL STUDY (1997) REGIONAL SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT STUDY (2001) Korea Maritime Institute

MODULES OF MPPM MODULES OF MPPM Korea Maritime Institute TRADE MODULE FORECAST TRADE FLOW ON COUNTY TO COUNTRY BASE PORT ASSIGNMENT MODULE COUNTY TO COUNTRY TRADE FLOW TO PORT TO PORT FLOW LINER SHIPPING NETWORK MODULE ALLOCATE TRADE FLOW TO SHIPPING ROUTE

UPGRADE MPPM UPGRADE MPPM ORIGINAL MPPM - BASED ON DOS SYSTEM - RESTRICTED NUMBER OF PORT AND T/S HUB - DIFFICULT TO USE UPGRADED MPPM - WINDOW VERSION - USER FRIENDLINESS - POSSIBLE INLAND TRASPORTATION SYSTEM EXPANSION KOREAN GOV’T FINANCES MODEL UPGRADE ORIGINAL MPPM - BASED ON DOS SYSTEM - RESTRICTED NUMBER OF PORT AND T/S HUB - DIFFICULT TO USE UPGRADED MPPM - WINDOW VERSION - USER FRIENDLINESS - POSSIBLE INLAND TRASPORTATION SYSTEM EXPANSION KOREAN GOV’T FINANCES MODEL UPGRADE Korea Maritime Institute

POSSIBLE BENEFICIARIES POSSIBLE BENEFICIARIES PORT PLANNER/GOVERNMENT FOMULATING REALISTIC STRATEGIES IN DEVELOPING PORT FACILITIES AND HUB-PORT SHIPOWNER SHIPPING ROUTE DECISION, SHIPPING CAPACITY INVESTMENT SHIPPER EFFICIENT SHIPPING NETWORK PORT PLANNER/GOVERNMENT FOMULATING REALISTIC STRATEGIES IN DEVELOPING PORT FACILITIES AND HUB-PORT SHIPOWNER SHIPPING ROUTE DECISION, SHIPPING CAPACITY INVESTMENT SHIPPER EFFICIENT SHIPPING NETWORK Korea Maritime Institute

STUDY OUTPUT STUDY OUTPUT REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING PUBLICATION INCLUDING CONTAINER FLOW PROJECTIONS, INVESTMENT REQUIREMENT AND POLICY ACTION GUIDELINES REPORT OF STUDY FINDINGS AND PROCEDINGS OF THE COUNTRY-LEVEL SEMINARS REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING PUBLICATION INCLUDING CONTAINER FLOW PROJECTIONS, INVESTMENT REQUIREMENT AND POLICY ACTION GUIDELINES REPORT OF STUDY FINDINGS AND PROCEDINGS OF THE COUNTRY-LEVEL SEMINARS Korea Maritime Institute

PROJECT STAGES AND SCHEDULE PROJECT STAGES AND SCHEDULE Korea Maritime Institute STAGES MJJASONDJFMA DATA SURVEY SCENARIO EVALUATION ANALYTICAL REPORT COUNTY LEVEL SEMINAR FIANL REPORT

PROJECT BUDGET PROJECT BUDGET Korea Maritime Institute ITEMSAPEC FUNDINGSELF FINANCING DIRECT LABOUR 30,000 TRAVEL 29,000- PRINTING 4,000- COMMUNICATIONS 2,000- TOTAL65,00030,000 (IN US$) UN/ESCAP WILL PROVIDE THE SOURCE OF MPPM AND THE GOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF KOREA WILL UPGARDE THE MPPM AT THE COST OF US$100,000 THIS YEAR.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE