1. Harbors Module NH2: Problem Identification, Inventory and Forecast, and Determination of Objectives and Constraints

2. NH2 - 2 BU ILDING STRONG SM Student Learning Objectives Student will be able to:  Identify problems and opportunities as they relate to navigation  Determine the objectives and constraints to navigation improvements  Establish the parameters needed for inventory and forecast

3. NH2 - 3 BU ILDING STRONG SM Development of Problem Statements  May not be the same for all stakeholders  Sort out real versus perceived problems  For current and future  Problem statement should include:  full description (e.g., answers who, what, where, when, why, how)  Who considers it’s a problem

4. NH2 - 4 BU ILDING STRONG SM Development of Problem Statements  Directly impacts shipping industry, exporters and importers  Project area  Channel  Environment  Disposal  Port service area  Study area - areas affected by trade/traffic/project

5. NH2 - 5 BU ILDING STRONG SM Symptoms of Problems  Physical Condition  Traffic Delays  Light Loading  Lightering  Safety Issues

6. NH2 - 6 BU ILDING STRONG SM Problems May Arise From Channel Configurations  Depth/width  Turning Areas  Shoaling  Location  Bends  Currents

7. NH2 - 7 BU ILDING STRONG SM Dredged Material Disposal Problems  Capacity  Cost  Environmental Concerns

8. NH2 - 8 BU ILDING STRONG SM Information Gathering  Types  Inventory  Forecast  Uses  Defines r elevant conditions in planning area under various scenarios  Historic (support rapid & sustained growth)  Existing  Base year  Most likely future with a project  Identify constraints

9. NH2 - 9 BU ILDING STRONG SM Data Parameters – Quantity  Physical  Bathymetric, etc.  Socioeconomic  Demographic – support trends  Geographic  Proximity to competing ports  Service area  Economic  Legal – i.e. disposal prohibitions

10. NH2 - 10 BU ILDING STRONG SM Data Parameters – Quality  Representative  Consistent  Period of collected data sufficient to represent trends

11. NH2 - 11 BU ILDING STRONG SM Port Characteristics  Terminals  Berthing Depths  Terminal Capacities  Port Institutions  Master Plan  Data source - Port Series

12. NH2 - 12 BU ILDING STRONG SM Characteristics for Commodities Affected by Delays/Capacity  Population  Commodity movement  Alternative mode information  Trading patterns

13. NH2 - 13 BU ILDING STRONG SM Vessel Information  Port vessel fleet  Vessel size data  Vessel operating drafts  limited by general navigation features  design versus operating  Vessel operating costs  Vessel capacity utilization  Vessel itinerary  Light loading analysis  Changing legal requirements

14. NH2 - 14 BU ILDING STRONG SM Distribution of Design Draft and TEU Capacity

15. NH2 - 15 BU ILDING STRONG SM The Need for Deeper Channels

16. NH2 - 16 BU ILDING STRONG SM Large Containership Depth Requirements

17. NH2 - 17 BU ILDING STRONG SM Underkeel Clearance

18. NH2 - 18 BU ILDING STRONG SM Existing Annual Transportation Costs  Ship operating costs  Origin-to-destination costs  Transit costs  Delay costs  Landside/Port costs

19. NH2 - 19 BU ILDING STRONG SM Forecasting  Forecast establishes the without project condition  Economic benefits are dependent on forecasting  Future demands are dependent on assumptions and the assumptions must be clearly articulated  If you build it will they come? There must be supporting data  Long-term solution versus short-term problem

20. NH2 - 20 BU ILDING STRONG SM Forecasting Model Considerations  Economic factors – Multiple Levels  International  Regional  Market  Enterprise (company)  Government factors  Laws  Regulations  Monetary policies

21. NH2 - 21 BU ILDING STRONG SM Commodity Forecasts  By type  By volume  By origin and destination  By transportation mode  Consult with IWR

22. NH2 - 22 BU ILDING STRONG SM Projected Total Container Throughput at Hampton Roads Through 2053 Source: WEFA, Inc.

23. NH2 - 23 BU ILDING STRONG SM Forecast of Fleet Mix – 2 Components  World fleet mix  Commercially available by industrial experts  Needs to be disaggregated to the port level  Port fleet projections  Trend analysis – Need to ensure that ships are available which could be going to other ports/trade routes  Distribution accounting - Need a wide enough distribution of vessel sizes in the fleet mix

24. NH2 - 24 BU ILDING STRONG SM Institutional Setting Example: Stakeholder Groups New York Harbor  Public Institutions  Corps, USCG, USCS  Port Authority of New York and New Jersey  States, New York City, Newark, Bayonne  Private Organizations  Carriers, Carrier Alliances, Pilots Associations  International Longshoreman’s Association  New York Shipping Association  Maritime Association of the Port of NY & NJ  Harbor Safety, Navigation, and Operations Committee  Environmental Groups

25. NH2 - 25 BU ILDING STRONG SM Without Project Condition  Product of forecasting  Assumes nonstructural measures likely to occur  Selected from alternative future conditions  Assumptions need to be verified  Specification of problem statements

26. Developing the Without- Project Condition

27. NH2 - 27 BU ILDING STRONG SM Planning Objectives  Properties of objectives  Flexible - Accommodate alternative ways to achieve  Measurable – not nebulous  Attainable  Congruent – not rule out other objectives  Avoid specifically seeking the solution

28. NH2 - 28 BU ILDING STRONG SM Planning Objectives - Examples  Decrease costs that result from tidal delays associated with container vessels entering and leaving ……. Harbor.  Decrease transportation costs through increases in economies of scale for dry bulk vessels delivering pot ash to …… Harbor.  Reduce navigation hazards associated with submerged rocks located adjacent to the ….. Ship Channel.

29. NH2 - 29 BU ILDING STRONG SM Take Away Points  Population, resource distribution, trading patterns, alternative transportation systems and forecasts of vessels fleet mixes need to be considered in the analysis of navigation systems.  Data that is collected must be representative, consistent and the period of collected data must be sufficient to represent trends  Economic and technical advances are engines of change. Future demands are dependent on assumptions and the assumptions must be clearly articulated

30. NH2 - 30 BU ILDING STRONG SM Where We are Going Next, we’ll cover:  The identification of management measures  The development and use of plan formulation strategies for navigation projects  Some of the basics regarding the economic evaluation of navigation plans

31. NH2 - 31 BU ILDING STRONG SM Challenge Question: How can we share lessons learned across teams?