Climate Change Impacts in the Interior Columbia Basin

Impacts at the Subbasin Level Terrestrial – Fires will increase in frequency, intensity and duration – Outbreaks of insects and other pests will increase – Sagebrush-Steppe and grassland habitat will decline substantially Biological – Many species’ ranges will shift northward and upward in elevation – Organisms with short life histories are apt to adapt to climate change better then organisms with longer life histories – There will be mismatches of formerly coordinated timing between interdependent species resulting in breeding failures, lack of appropriate food, and weather extremes

Source: ISAB 2007

Impacts at the Subbasin Level (continued) Aquatic – Warm water fishes are likely to increase in abundance and range, increasing competition and predation on salmonids – Salmonid habitat losses will be significant Trout: 8-33% by 2090 Salmon in OR & ID: potentially exceeding 40% by 2090 Salmon in WA: 22% by 2090 Bull trout: 22-90% – Lower disease resistance – Effect of toxics will increase – Higher summer low-flow mortality – Higher metabolic rates require more food to reach smolt size

Impacts at the Subbasin Level (continued) Economic – Present land uses may become less economically viable Grazing Irrigation – New opportunities will emerge – Sustainability must be a key criterion

Source: ISAB 2007

Impacts on Salmon Individual Fish Impacts Earlier emergence Higher physiological stress Lower disease resistance Ecosystem Impacts Increased competition and predation Disruption in ecosystem processes (flow, food, etc.) Changing marine ecosystems (more acidic, upwelling?, etc.) Regional Impacts Reduced total habitat Redistribution of the most suitable habitat areas Changes in land uses and local economies

Responses Protect and Restore Ecosystem Functions Prioritize areas (biggest bang for the buck) Protect and restore habitat Increase retention time of water in watersheds Develop Multi-Disciplinary Strategies Physical problems (hydrology, erosion, climatology, etc.) Biological problems (invasives, toxicology, energy budgets) Social problems (population growth, sustainable economies) Build Alliances and Partnerships Problems are too big and complex for individual groups Leverage resources Greater political influence

New Technical Tools to Address Climate Change Impacts Are Available

LIDAR and FLIR technology can collect data rapidly

LIDAR is like a subbasin “X-Ray”, revealing historic stream channels

LIDAR can also reveal areas at high risk of landslides

FLIR surveys reveal temperature patterns

FLIR can be used to monitor temperature at different times of day.

New Technological Tools Greater analytical ability Multidisciplinary issues Biology Geomorphology Economics Sociology Community of Stakeholders Communication Ongoing involvement Trust Ownership of strategies

Subbasin Options Plan from a broad perspective Prioritize areas for action to maximize use of time and money Protect and restore features that store water wetlands floodplains Manage water withdrawals to conserve water and improve efficiency of water use Retain shade along stream channels and protect riparian integrity Remove barriers to passage into thermal refugia New impoundments for summer flow management

Habitat Protection Strategies Fee simple acquisitions Conservation easements Settlement and land management agreements Habitat conservation plans Water and land leases Purchase options and right of first refusal Purchase and transfer of development rights Tradable environmental credits USDA programs Certification programs Acquisition and conservation of water rights Salmon strongholds

Summary Climate change will cause significant social and economic impacts – Requires multi-disciplinary strategies for effective response – Multidisciplinary partnerships are needed To analyze issues To influence legislation To implement strategies New technology is available address the complex ecosystem impacts of climate change – Using this technology will require greater expertise and resources – Tribes should develop a shared strategy for using new technology