Powerpoint Information: Dr. Barry Nocks Clemson University Center for Community Growth & Change

Oconee County Courthouse, Walhalla, SC Ram Cat Alley, Seneca, SC Mobile Home, Walhalla, SC Development Entry, Clemson, SC

Today: –1.22 Million People 62.2% Urban –527,274 Housing Units 67.3% Single Family 2025: –1.56 Million People* 340,000 more people, or 28% growth rate 54.8% of growth in Greenville and Spartanburg Counties –659,412 Housing Units *according to SC Budget & Control Board

Additional Needs for 2025:  6.75 million square feet (or 155 acres)  67 (100,000 s.f.) neighborhood strip centers, or  5.5 Haywood Malls Source: Clemson University Center for Real Estate Development Haywood Mall Vicinity - Greenville

Additional Needs for 2025 (continued) 6.1 million square feet (or 140 acres)  6 (40-story) office buildings at 1 million square feet each, or  2x the amount of office space currently in downtown Greenville Downtown Greenville

Additional Needs for 2025:  27.1 million square feet (or 622 acres)  new BMW plants  Equivalent in size to 135 Wal-Mart Supercenters (averaging 200,000 sf) BMW Manufacturing Plant – Greer Oconee County Commerce Center

Additional Needs for 2025:  7,111 Hotel Rooms = 71 new hotels (assuming average of 100 rooms per hotel) Poinsett Hotel - Greenville Holiday Inn Express - Anderson

 Economic diversification  Jobs – growth in numbers and quality  Tax base – support of quality services  Cultural growth & diversity  We seek to maintain quality of life while encouraging growth

Greenville- Spartanburg is 5 th most sprawling area ( Considering factors such as: miles driven, traffic delays, air pollution, proximity of homes to jobs/ schools, population density) Sprawl Rankings 1. Riverside-San Bernardino (LA), CA 2. Greensboro-Winston- Salem-High Point, NC 3. Raleigh-Durham, NC 4. Atlanta, GA 5. Greenville- Spartanburg, SC

> Virginia Study (D. Ware, et al., USDA Forest Service,1998) *1999 population estimates by CACI International, Inc. based on 1990 US Census Population Density Along the I-85 Corridor # people per square mile

Development Impacts  Land Use  Transportation  Infrastructure  Parks and Open Space  Education  Public Safety Direct costs of serving new residents Based on population projections from the SC Office of Research and Statistics

The Upstate is projected to grow by almost 30% by 2025 and by another 30% by 2050 This will have a significant impact on the transportation infrastructure in the Upstate, with unknown effect of gas supply and mass transit Construction of new infrastructure as well as improving existing highways will be a challenge Meeting EPA pollution standards will be a challenge with growth

Total Statewide Transportation needs through 2022 identified at $56.87 billion Road related needs: $47.57 billion Upstate needs at 30% of total: $14.27 billion Source: SCDOT Multimodal Transportation Plan, 2002

Parks & Recreation

Recreation Center- Anderson, SC Parks provide refuge from the chaos of daily life –Passive and active recreation –Trails, athletic facilities, play structures, pools, sport courts, and wildlife areas –Reduction of urban heat islands –Public gathering space –Leisure and community facilities With the projected increase of 338,538 people by 2025, demand for parks and recreational space is sure to increase Only active parks included here

Projected costs are rough estimates –  Actual costs depend on topography, amenities, site improvements, land acquisition, construction, and selected materials Estimates are an average of construction costs for recently constructed comparable parks Park Amenities Are Expensive!!  Example: Play Structure = $35,000 Source: City of Greenville Park and Recreation Dept.

Abbeville County- $1.8 Million (18 acres)  2 Mini Parks-$213,000 (2 acres)  2 Neighborhood Parks-$602,000 (8 acres)  0.4 Community Parks-$984,000 (8 acres) Anderson County-$17.7 Million (166 acres)  18 Mini Parks-$2.1 Million (18 acres)  15 Neighborhood Parks-$5.9 Million (74 acres)  4 Community Parks-$9.7 Million (74 acres) Greenville County-$57.4 Million (536 acres)  60 Mini Parks-$6.8 Million (60 acres)  48 Neighborhood Parks- $19.2 Million (238 acres)  12 Community Parks-$31.4 Million (238 acres) Pickens County- $20.9 Million (195 acres)  22 Mini Parks-$2.5 Million (22 acres)  17 Neighborhood Parks-$6.9 Million (87 acres)  4 Community Parks-$11.5 Million (87 acres) Walhalla Soccer Field Impacts on Selected Counties 1 Costs adjusted 3% annually for inflation

Current Facilities PrimaryElementary Middle School High School Career & TechnicalPrivateTotal Abbeville Anderson Cherokee Greenville Greenwood Laurens Oconee Pickens Spartanbur g Union Total Source: SC Department of Education

Estimated Additional Needs Through 2025 Additional Students 1 Additional Square Footage 1 Additional Classrooms 2 Additional Teachers 3 K - 533,4463,010,1401,3941,520 Middle School13,8591,663, High School13,1281,969, Total60,4336,642,4202,5182,904 1 Assumes that the current distribution of population across age groups will remain consistent to ft 2 /K-5 Student, 120 ft 2 /Middle Student, 150 ft 2 /High (Source: Edwards, Mary “Community Guide to Development Impact Analysis.” University of Wisconsin) 3 24 students/K-5 Classroom, 25/Middle, 26/High (Source: Burchell and Listokin “Development Impact Assessment Handbook.”) 4 1 teacher/22 K-5 students, 1/20 Middle, 1/19 High (Source: Burchell and Listokin “Development Impact Assessment Handbook.”)

Comparisons  Additional Elementary School requirements equivalent to the construction of:  30 additional Clemson Elementary Schools (46 classrooms), or  68 additional Walhalla Elementary Schools (approx. 500 students) Clemson Elementary

Comparisons  Additional Middle School requirements equivalent to the construction of:  15 Additional Greer Middle Schools (921 students), or  22 Additional Brewer Middle Schools (618 students) Brewer Middle School, Greenwood

Comparisons  Additional High School requirements equivalent to the construction of:  8 Additional Easley High Schools (68 classrooms); or  12 Additional Greenville High Schools (46 classrooms) Easley High School

Additional Teachers  Future growth in the Upstate by 2025 is estimated to generate a need for nearly 3,000 additional teachers at estimated additional annual salary costs of nearly $199 million 1 1 Costs adjusted to 2025 dollars

Construction Costs  Future growth in the Upstate is estimated to generate a need for $735– $919 Million 1 in new or expanded facilities construction by 2025, not including replacements to existing facilities Walhalla High School and Football Field 1 Costs adjusted 3% annually for inflation

We can learn from other experiences, particularly from areas that are similar in scale and political outlook We do have choices—not to act is an invitation to continued movement to Charlotte and Atlanta

Powerpoint Information: Dr. Barry Nocks Clemson University Center for Community Growth & Change