Global Environmental Change Changes in the biophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality For example changes in: Nitrogen availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level

GECAFS Scientific Sponsoring Programmes How they work: scientific research research capacity-building integration and synthesis international scientific networks

IGBPIHDPWCRP Carbon Food Water

GECAFS interactions with Sponsoring Programmes GECAFS

To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of Global Environmental Change on food provision systems and to analyse the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptation. GECAFS Goal

Food Provision Provision = f (production, availability, access) Production= f (yield, area) Availability= f (production, distribution, storage) Access= f (availability, socioeconomic potential [e.g. affordability], & physiological potential [e.g. nutritional quality] )

a means of considering, in an holistic manner, the links between a number of factors “from plough to plate”. A Food System approach principally includes consideration of: production harvesting storage processing distribution consumption Food Systems

Fundamental Questions 1Given changing demands for food, how will GEC additionally affect food provision and vulnerability in different regions and among different social groups? 2How might different societies and different categories of producers adapt their food systems to cope with GEC against the background of changing demand? 3What would be the socioeconomic and environmental consequences of such adaptations? Global Environmental Change (GEC) and Food Systems

GECAFS Science Themes Theme 1Vulnerability and Impacts: Effects of GEC on Food Provision Theme 2Adaptations: GEC and Options for Enhancing Food Provision Theme 3Feedbacks: Environmental and Socioeconomic Consequences of Adapting Food Systems to GEC

Overarching questions In which regions and to what extent are food production and provision potentially sensitive to GEC, and why? How will anticipated changes in food production due to GEC influence the availability and accessibility of food? To what extent might anticipated changes in socioeconomic conditions influence the impacts of GEC on food production potential? Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts

Overarching questions How have food production systems coped with or adapted to environmental variability and change in the past? What types of GEC will exceed the thresholds and speed of adaptive responses of current food production systems? Are existing institutions capable of providing effective adaptation options? What are the future costs to food provision of delaying the implementation of response strategies to GEC? Theme 2 Adaptations

Overarching questions How and to what extent will the environment be affected by adapting food systems in response to both changing demands and GEC? What are the socio-economic consequences of these adaptations? To what extent are management responses effective in mitigating GEC and consistent with socioeconomic capacities? Theme 3 Feedbacks

Global Environmental Change Food Provision Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts Theme 2 Adaptations Adapted Food Provision Theme 3 Environmental Feedbacks Socioeconomic Change Theme 3 Socioeconomic Feedbacks GECAFS Science Themes

REGIONAL RESEARCH PROJECTS Indo-Gangetic Plain food system Caribbean food system Eastern Pacific coastal fisheries Southern Africa food system CROSS-CUTTING PROJECTS Vulnerability science Scenario development Initial GECAFS Projects

GECAFS Regional Research Ensures a GEC science agenda that:  interacts effectively with the regional policy making process and thereby encourages more support for the regional science communities  attracts donor support from outside the “traditional” GEC funding community Research needs to: (i)relate to regional development needs (ii)have relevance to current and near-term issues, as well as longer-term

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental threats Exposure to GEC FOOD SYSTEM VULNERABILITY “Traditional” approach to vulnerability studies

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental threats FOOD SYSTEM VULNERABILITY SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc. Capacity to Cope &/or Recover from GEC Exposure to GEC GECAFS approach to vulnerability studies

GECAFS Scenarios Minimum set of variables Food system Socioeconomic ProductionPopulation ConsumptionEconomic performance DistributionTechnology Institutions and policies Biophysical/environmental Resources (land, climate, water availability) Ecological performance/condition

Strategic research alliances Need to be established from an early stage with:  National and international research bodies, e.g. national academies and research centres; and the CGIAR and science bodies within ICSU  Assessment agencies and groups, e.g. WRI, MA  International agencies, e.g. FAO, WMO, World Bank  National and international donor agencies and other potential investors

GECAFS NARS & CGIAR GECAFS Example Collaborations FAO IIASA MAWMO

Indices of human vulnerability based on a combined socioeconomic-biophysical approach. Comprehensive scenarios of future socioeconomic and environmental conditions. Region-specific recommendations on the institutional and technological factors that can reduce societal vulnerability to GEC. Quantitative methods for assessing the environmental and socioeconomic tradeoffs of scenario-based adaptations to food systems. Example GECAFS Research Products

A robust framework for novel, interdisciplinary approaches to GEC research that examines vulnerability to impacts, adaptations and feedbacks. A problem-oriented, policy-relevant approach which can bring together the GEC and Development agendas, and their donor communities. A design for analyses at regional and sub-regional levels which will help develop effective policy to protect vulnerable sections of society. A methodology which allows an analysis of trade-offs between managing resources for both food provision and environment. GECAFS “Distinguishing Features”