Chad McNutt and Lisa Darby NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory/Climate Program Office

NIDIS  Background  Southeast Drought Outlook Forum (Dec. 1)  NIDIS ACF Pilot Update Meeting (Dec. 2)

 Public Law (The NIDIS Act 2006) “Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to managing drought risks and impacts” “better informed and more timely drought-related decisions leading to reduced impacts and costs”  NIDIS Objectives Coordinating national drought monitoring and forecasting systems Providing an interactive drought information clearinghouse and delivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc) Designing mechanisms for improving and incorporating information to support coordinated preparedness and planning

Missouri Oklahoma Montana Chesapeake Bay NIDIS Early Warning Systems Pilots Highlighted-first round prototypes; Others-Regional DEWS & transferability Southeast Colorado River Basin California Columbia River Basin Great Plains Great Lakes Tennessee Valley

NIDIS ACF Pilot Drought Early Warning Information System in Review

Southeast Drought Outlook Forum  November 18, 2010 Albany  December 1, 2011 Lake Lanier Observed and predicted state of climate system in the SE Implications of SE Outlook on ACF Discussion of short-term and long-term vulnerabilities

 Albany in Nov 2010 – strong La Nina, forecast for it to cont. throughout the winter did verify Impact on rainfall across ACF generally as expected Impact on temperatures across ACF not as expected: AO/NAO led to unusually cold December; some return to above-normal temperatures in Jan/Feb  Spring impacts were largely La Nina-like Review of 2010 Outlook Forum-D. Zierden

 There has been some short-term improvement in conditions over the past days, which has helped ameliorate some of the drought impacts  winter and spring recharge in the ACF Basin will be crucial in determining the persistence and intensity of drought conditions Current Conditions-V. Murphy

Lanier Calculated Inflows vs Rainfall Surplus/Deficits (Climate Division 2 and 3)

 La Nina has redeveloped and is expected to persist throughout the winter AO/NAO continues to be erratic and difficult to predict  Expected La Nina impacts for this winter: Better chance for warmer-than-normal temperatures Better change for drier-than-normal precipitation  Bottom line: drought likely to persist in ACF Winter Outlook-M. Halpert

3-Month Temperature Outlook3-Month Precipitation Outlook

 Forecast for the primary recharge period (winter and spring) for ACF Basin is as follows: Greatest likelihood is for below-normal inflows into Lake Lanier Greatest likelihood is for below-normal streamflow in the Flint, Chattahoochee, and Apalachicola Rivers  There is some uncertainty in these outlooks Factors other than La Nina can become dominant over short periods (e.g., AO/NAO) La Nina & ACF Recharge-J. Dobur Lake Lanier Inflows Upper Flint Lower Chattahoochee Apalachicola Historical Data – December – February Period

 La Nina will continue through the winter  But, this La Nina is weaker than last winter’s  Slight odds of a third winter of La Nina conditions in (“triple delight”)  Any return to El Nino in 2012 would likely benefit ACF (but historically, more reliable impact would be in other drought-stricken areas such as Texas) La Nina Forecast-K. Wolter 3yr La Niña2yr La Niña

Lake Lanier – 3 Month Forecast-B. Crane 2011 Observed Elevations 10 th Percentile Hydrology 25 th Percentile Hydrology 50 th Percentile Hydrology Top of Conservation

NIDIS ACF Pilot Update Meeting Results & Next Steps  Committees keep working Education & Outreach Data Committee  Webinars (~monthly) USACE collaborate with NIDIS for drought calls  How are we providing early warning? Issue Drought Watch advisory Distribute fact sheets

Thank you

Southeast Climate Outlook Forum ENSO Status Current Conditions Effects of ENSO 3-Month Seasonal Forecast Impacts & Vulnerability

New Climate Water Efforts Skillful drought and flood outlooks for a range of climate time-scales based on process understanding of watershed- scale hydrologic budgets Regional drought monitoring tools and impact assessments Hydroclimate information system enhancements such as inputs into watershed plus state and local drought plans and operations