Ray Moy December 01, 2010 Federal Aviation Administration Research, Requirements and Transition

2 Federal Aviation Administration Weather Research Review December 01, 2010 Agenda NextGen Evolution and Weather Requirements Research Transition Weather Product Access and Processing Weather Product Translation and Integration

3 Federal Aviation Administration Weather Research Review December 01, 2010 Building Towards NextGen (FOC) Prob.Increased Coverage Deterministic Aviation Wx HazardsAviation Wx Hazards Enhanced Accuracy/Longer Lead Times

4 Federal Aviation Administration Weather Research Review December 01, 2010 Sample Requirements Matrix for Convection PropertyCurrent CDM (CCFP)IOC (CoSPA (1.0)FOC Weather Parameter2-D convective coverage 2-D VIL and Echo Tops 3-D Convective Hazards (hail, lightning, CIT, wind shear, tornados, etc) Spatial Resolution (horizontal) N/A3km1km (Enroute) 0.5km (SD Terminal) Temporal Resolution2hrs15 minutes15min <2hrs (Enroute) 1hr 2-60 hrs (Enroute) Update Rate2hrs15 minutes (5 minutes < 2hrs) 10min <2hrs (Enroute) 30-60min 2-10h (Enroute) Forecast Horizon6hrs8hrs7 days Deterministic (D) or Probabalistic (P)? P (levels of confidence) DD & P Latency2hrs 5 min <2hrs (Enroute) 15min 2-4hrs (Enroute) AccuracyTBD 92%, ≤ 2 hrs 88%, ≤ 2-4 hrs 85%, ≤ 4-10 hrs 82%, ≤ 10-24h 75%, ≤ h 60%, ≤ 60 h- 7d CoverageCONUS Global

5 Federal Aviation Administration Weather Research Review December 01, 2010 Aviation Wx Research Transition Wx research and transition to be managed in accordance with Research for Service Analysis (RSA) –Matures ops concepts, reduces risk, and/or defines requirements –Performs portfolio management to ensure alignment across related initiatives as maturing concepts move through the AMS lifecycle During RSA, two key activities are performed: –Research Engineering and Development (RE&D) Activities to gain knowledge/ understanding of science and concepts that could potentially benefit the aviation community –Concept Maturity and Technology Development (CMTD) activities mature and evaluate concepts, inform acquisition management System (AMS) Feasibility studies Technical analyses Prototype demonstrations Operational assessments

6 Federal Aviation Administration Weather Research Review December 01, Dimensional Weather Data Cube Will contain: –Continuously updated weather observations –High resolution analysis and forecast information Turbulence Icing Convection Ceiling and visibility Winds (surface and aloft) Others All made commonly accessible to users Conceptual cube, not all in one location Weather Data Access- 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube

7 Federal Aviation Administration Weather Research Review December 01, 2010 Weather Data Access-NNEW FAA’s infrastructure for aviation weather information dissemination –Information provided from NWS’ NextGen 4-D Weather Data Cube –Tailored information provided by value added services –Dissemination of Weather Translations Makes available FAA weather products including FAA observations to NWS

8 Federal Aviation Administration Weather Research Review December 01, 2010 NextGen Weather Processor (NWP) Re-hosts and streamlines the current weather processing systems Provides translation of weather information for integration to support ATM decisions Designed to handle the addition of new Wx products to support new decision support tools

9 Federal Aviation Administration Weather Research Review December 01, 2010 Weather Translation Translation to Aviation Constraints and Threshold Events ATM Impact Conversion Conversion to Operational NAS Impact and State Changes ATM Decision Support Impact Mitigation Options 4D Wx SAS Performance Feedback Weather Information Translated Weather Impact Estimate NextGen Weather Integration Concept e.g., Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) Weather Avoidance Fields (WAF) e.g., Turbulence, Icing, Convection

10 Federal Aviation Administration Weather Research Review December 01, 2010 Translating Weather to Impacts Weather Translation Techniques Estimated Airspace Availability Precipitation Echo Tops Pilot Deviation Prob Weather Avoidance Field (WAF) -10 min +10 min +20 min 0 min FCAA min +10 min +20 min 0 min FCAA08

11 Federal Aviation Administration Weather Research Review December 01, 2010 Integration Evolution Near Term -- Route/Volume Data Extractor for utilization in DSTs. Initial translation service. Mid Term – Translations integrated into DSTs. New datasets will be available that translate weather information into threshold events or NAS constraints. Far Term –Fully automated translations including advanced weather data. * Translations in use to support decision making will be available to users (e.g., FOC, Flight Deck) to allow for common situational awareness

12 Federal Aviation Administration Weather Research Review December 01, 2010 BACKUP 1

13 Federal Aviation Administration Weather Research Review December 01, 2010 Primary: NWS FAA-MET FAA-ATM State of the NAS Collect data Analyze data Forecast data NextGen 4-D Wx Cube / SAS Weather Translation* Translation to Aviation Constraints ATM Impact Conversion** Conversion to Operational NAS Impact ATM Decision Support*** Impact Mitigation Options ATM Efficiency Demand/Capacity ATM Aviation Standards Observations Sensors Reports Met Community ATM Community Research Community & Components State of the Atmosphere * Translation of weather data & other components into characterization of potential NAS constraints ** Conversion of potential NAS constraint into specific NAS impact(s). *** DSTs use specific NAS impact to develop strategic/ tactical TFM strategies. Thresholds/Behavior Direct FAA Users Direct External Users NextGen Weather Integration Concept

14 Federal Aviation Administration Weather Research Review December 01, 2010 NNEW Implementation Application will ride on the System Wide Information Management (SWIM) Segment 1 and 2 platforms Development of the NNEW Software Platform will be accomplished by the NNEW Program Office Allocation of NNEW hardware infrastructure will be determined as part of the Investment Strategy

15 Federal Aviation Administration Weather Research Review December 01, 2010 A special subset of the wx cube: 4-D Weather Single Authoritative Source Is only a portion of the 4-D Weather Data Cube Provides a source for decisions by the ANSP (FAA in the US) in collaboration with airlines and other users –May be a single chosen source –May be generated by intelligent merger of multiple sources To be the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management in the FAA Freely accessible by users All will know what the FAA is using for its weather decisions, but airlines and other users can choose to believe other sources

16 Federal Aviation Administration Weather Research Review December 01, 2010 Highlights NNEW 4-D Wx Data Cube NNEW Interagency Capability Evaluation, Sep 2010 Processing and Integration Demonstrations In-situ Turbulence Demonstration, Ongoing CoSPA/LCH Convective Forecast Demonstration, Jun-Sep 2010 Weather integrated into TBFM - NextGen Integrated Airport (ERAU) Evaluation, 2011 Plans and Requirements ATM Weather Integration Plan v2.0, Sep 2010 Observation Rightsizing Analysis Report, Dec 2010 Liquid Water Equivalent Initial Requirements Document, July 2010