NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlooks: Status and Progress Douglas Le Comte SRH/ERH Climate Workshop Peachtree City, GA June 2007.

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Presentation transcript:

NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlooks: Status and Progress Douglas Le Comte SRH/ERH Climate Workshop Peachtree City, GA June 2007

Outline Current Techniques for Drought ForecastingCurrent Techniques for Drought Forecasting A closer look at the tools used to forecast the Southeast DroughtA closer look at the tools used to forecast the Southeast Drought Ideas for the future of drought forecastingIdeas for the future of drought forecasting

New Forecast Tool Cambodian royal cows predict drought, poor harvest this year (2007/5/6 PHNOM PENH, AFP)Cambodian royal cows predict drought, poor harvest this year (2007/5/6 PHNOM PENH, AFP) PHNOM PENH PHNOM PENH Cambodia's royal cows signaled a drought and poor harvests in an ancient ceremony Saturday to mark the beginning of the kingdom's planting season.Cambodia's royal cows signaled a drought and poor harvests in an ancient ceremony Saturday to mark the beginning of the kingdom's planting season.Cambodia's

Recent Draft Drought Outlook

The Three Pillars of the Forecast Two-week soil moisture forecastsTwo-week soil moisture forecasts Climatology: Palmer probabilities, analogues, compositesClimatology: Palmer probabilities, analogues, composites Seasonal temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture forecastsSeasonal temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture forecasts

Features of the Seasonal Drought Outlook A schematic designed to provide a broad indication of drought trends for the following ~3 monthsA schematic designed to provide a broad indication of drought trends for the following ~3 months Four categories: improve, some improvement (e.g., better soil moisture and grassland growth but continuing water supply shortages), persist/worsen, developmentFour categories: improve, some improvement (e.g., better soil moisture and grassland growth but continuing water supply shortages), persist/worsen, development Issued 3 rd and 1 st Thursday each month (NEW!)Issued 3 rd and 1 st Thursday each month (NEW!) Incorporates forecasts from all time periodsIncorporates forecasts from all time periods Starts with the most recent U.S. Drought monitor D1 areasStarts with the most recent U.S. Drought monitor D1 areas

2-Wk Soil Moisture Constructed Analogue Soil Model Medium-Range Fcst Palmer 4-mo Probabilities CPC Long-Lead Precip. Outlook Principal Drought Outlook Inputs

Selected Forecast Tools “These are some of my favorite things.”

CPC 2-Week Soil Moisture Forecast

Constructed Analogues from Soil (CAS) Moisture

CFS Modeled Soil Moisture

Palmer Probability Data September Palmer Probabilities

Historical Analogues: Soil Moisture June 1 Oct

Historical Analogues June 1 Oct

Drought Composites Jun-Sep: Palmers Rainfall Temperatures June PDI Sep PDI

Mean score=49% Mean improvement over persistence =13% Verification: Percent Area Correct

Two Path Drought Forecast Approach Continue current schematic for the general publicContinue current schematic for the general public Produce objective probability maps for technical usersProduce objective probability maps for technical users

Near-term Changes to Drought Outlook Have increased frequency to twice/monthHave increased frequency to twice/month Propose adjustment of forecast categories so all categories can be verified (include category for intensification?)Propose adjustment of forecast categories so all categories can be verified (include category for intensification?) Propose using more current GFS ensemble runs for soil moisture forecasts and initializing CAS with 2-week forecastPropose using more current GFS ensemble runs for soil moisture forecasts and initializing CAS with 2-week forecast Considering drought probability mapConsidering drought probability map

Proposed Category Change

Possible Probability Map

Drought Recovery Prediction Methodology Use observed forcings to drive the model and produce “best knowledge” initial conditions for forecastUse observed forcings to drive the model and produce “best knowledge” initial conditions for forecast Drive the model with precipitation and temperature forcings unconditionally sampled from climatology creating an ensemble of model trajectoriesDrive the model with precipitation and temperature forcings unconditionally sampled from climatology creating an ensemble of model trajectories At different lead times, estimate probability of soil moisture/runoff percentile exceeding threshold from ensemble = probability of recoveryAt different lead times, estimate probability of soil moisture/runoff percentile exceeding threshold from ensemble = probability of recovery Prototype forecast product from UW

Probability of Drought Recovery Initial Conditions (2/2006) 1-month lead forecast (3/2006) 6-month lead forecast (8/2006) 3-month lead forecast (5/2006) Prototype forecast product from UW

Current Princeton Probability Forecasts

Thoughts for the Future Statistical and dynamic (GCM) techniques can be used to forecast the probabilities for reaching various levels of the drought variable—need to effectively combine ST and LT forecastsStatistical and dynamic (GCM) techniques can be used to forecast the probabilities for reaching various levels of the drought variable—need to effectively combine ST and LT forecasts For a drought early warning system, need to consider current conditions, trends, and forecastsFor a drought early warning system, need to consider current conditions, trends, and forecasts Effective early warning systems (DEWS) provide alerts (e.g. watch, warning) and assessment, not just data. “Alert” for developing droughts? “Advisories” for ongoing droughts?Effective early warning systems (DEWS) provide alerts (e.g. watch, warning) and assessment, not just data. “Alert” for developing droughts? “Advisories” for ongoing droughts? Do we ring a bell for drought?