The First Step: Translating Needs to Requirements Many applications require the current and past states of the atmosphere near the surface at high spatial.

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Presentation transcript:

The First Step: Translating Needs to Requirements Many applications require the current and past states of the atmosphere near the surface at high spatial and temporal resolution. What does an analysis of record represent? Can one analysis of record meet all needs? –Local analyses vs. national products –Real-time vs. retrospective analyses –Resolution issues What spatial and temporal resolution? Averages vs. extremes in time/space? –Parameter issues (temperature, precipitation, etc.)

The Second Step: Science, Technology, and Resource Inventory To what extent can these requirements be met given existing scientific understanding, technologies, and resources? –What can be learned from the literature and current applications? –What are the strengths and weaknesses of existing methodologies? –What observational data sets are most critical? –What limitations are imposed by the existing and future observational data assets vs. those available in the past? –What limitations are imposed by an underlying model? Sensitivity to boundary layer parameterizations, soil moisture, clouds, etc.? –What are the realistic options for real-time and retrospective analyses within the next year or two? –Are there some aspects that are easier to accomplish than others? Real-time vs. retrospective? Specific variables (temperature vs. precipitation) –How can the quality of analyses be assessed? What are appropriate measures of skill?

The Third Step: Recommendations and Outcomes What are the critical scientific issues that must be faced in order to successfully develop quality analyses at high spatial/temporal resolution? What additional R&D and resources are needed? Possible outcomes of this meeting? –USWRP report based on recommendations from workshop and additional feedback from operational, research, and user communities –Permanent NOAA/USWRP committee formed to continue advocacy for analysis of record –Propose fast-track implementation plan to provide AOR soon –Develop long-term clearly-defined project plan with compelling arguments –Propose funding opportunities and resources be sought to facilitate research projects from NWS, NSF, and other agencies –Advocate long-term funding from NOAA/NWS and other agencies for implementation of AOR beginning FY 07

Breakout Session Details Session 1: Analysis Requirements (Rm 3C404) –Facilitators: David Ruth & John Snook –Charge: Identify and prioritize the requirements for AORs Session 2: Observational Resources and Verification (Room 3B809) –Facilitators: Jennifer Mahoney & Eugene Petrescu –Charge: Identify and prioritize the observational resources required to generate AORs –Identify methods to assess the quality (verification) of the AORs Session 3: Analysis Strategies (Room GB124) –Facilitators: Fred Carr & Steven Lazarus –Identify and evaluate the current capabilities to develop AORs –Recommend ways that current deficiencies may be overcome

Breakout Session 1: Analysis Requirements Charge: –Identify and prioritize the requirements for AORs Specific issues: –Can one analysis of record meet all needs? Local analyses vs. national products Real-time vs. retrospective analyses –What spatial and temporal resolution? –Averages vs. extremes in time/space? –Parameters (temperature, precipitation, etc.) – which are absolutely essential now? –What are the fundamental characteristics that should be met in the future?

Breakout Session 2: Observational Resources and Verification Charge: –Identify and prioritize the observational resources required to generate AORs –Identify methods to assess the quality (verification) of the AORs Specific issues: –What observational data sets are most critical? –What limitations are imposed by the existing and future observational data assets vs. those available in the past? –What is required to estimate quantitatively the observational errors in the various data streams? –What efforts are required to collect surface data including mesonets? –How can COOP and other climate data be used effectively? –What is required to use radar and satellite data effectively? –How can the quality of analyses be assessed? –What are appropriate measures of analysis skill? –Can specific analytic experiments and case studies be defined to test analysis solutions?

Breakout Session 3: Analysis Strategies Charge: –Identify and evaluate the current capabilities to develop AORs –Recommend ways that current deficiencies may be overcome Specific issues: –What are the strengths and weaknesses of existing methodologies? –What limitations are imposed by an underlying model? Sensitivity to boundary layer parameterizations, soil moisture, clouds, etc.? –What are the realistic options for real-time and retrospective analyses now? –Are there some aspects that are easier to accomplish than others? Real-time vs. retrospective? Specific variables (temperature vs. precipitation)? –What are the critical scientific issues that must be resolved in order to successfully develop quality analyses at high spatial/temporal resolution?