111 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Advancements in Lightning- Severe Storm Forecasts and Warnings: Results from the Southern Thunder Alliance Photo, David Blankenship Guntersville, Alabama Steve Goodman NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Earth Science Office Huntsville, Alabama, USA NWS SRH SOO-NASA SPoRT Joint Workshop July, 2006 Huntsville Alabama

222 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Outline of Presentation Motivation and Background Science and Technology Infusion –GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) –VHF Lightning Mapping –Nowcasting-Warning Decision Making –WRF Forecasts of Thunderstorm Initiation and Lightning Threat Current Plans and the Way Forward

333 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Background and Motivation NASA and NOAA working together to save lives –Tornado lead time -12 min national average –Lightning strikes responsible for >500 injuries per year, 90% of victims suffer permanent disabilities and long term health problems, chiefly neurological in nature –Lightning responsible for 80 deaths per year (second leading source after flooding) –Aviation weather- airport operations, enroute savings $25M/yr – In-cloud lightning lead time of impending ground strikes, often 10 min or more –… forest fire initiation, utility crew deployment, NEXRAD coverage gaps, improved precipitation estimates, hail/wind/flood detection, …

Continuous GEO Total Lightning will identify severe storm potential Process physics understood Vortex Spins-up Updraft Intensifies Ice flux drives lightning Lightning jump precedes severe weatherLightning improves storm predictability Demonstrated in LEO with OTD & LIS Storm-scale model for decision support system Physical basis for improved forecasts IC flash rate controlled by graupel (ice mass) production (and vertical velocity) GLM GOES E View

555 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration 0 o C Flash Rate Coupled to Mass in the Mixed Phase Region Cecil et al., Mon. Wea. Rev (from TRMM Observations)

Mapping storm initiation, growth, decay TRMM provides us a huge database of paired lightning, radar, IR and passive microwave observations (training / validation) Over entire tropics & subtropics (generalization) Total lightning increases as storm intensifies – can increase lead time for warning of severe and tornadic storms TRMM LIS-Lightning: May 1999 Stroud, OK Tornado GOES-R GLM Perspective

777 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) GLM on GOES Dual imager concept July 2006 Status- 3 on-going industry led GLM formulation studies NESDIS sponsored risk reduction- NSSTC lead

888 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration  NASA-NOAA-University-Industry Partners SPoRT Center (NASA MSFC/NSSTC) New Mexico Tech and other universities OU/NSSL Vaisala, Inc. WFOs – Huntsville (HUN), Nashville (OHX), Birmingham (BMX), Fort Worth (FDW), Melbourne (MLB), Norman (OUN), Sterling (LWX) NWS/MDL  LMA systems located in NWS Southern Region North Alabama OU/NSSL New Mexico Tech Langmuir Laboratory White Sands Missile Range KSC/CCAFS (LDAR II) TAMU (LDAR II) Dallas/Fort Worth (Vaisala LDAR II) Southern Thunder Alliance A collaboration among LMA owner-operators and end users

999 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration North Alabama LMA Coverage NWSFO HUN CWA Tennessee Alabama

10 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) Network of 10 detectors centered about HSV (NMT heritage) Computes 4-D location of all electrical discharges (“flashes”) within LMA (CG…and IC, CC, CA) Flash location overlaid on radar and satellite imagery and updated every minute Trend information for individual storms Validation for TRMM LIS –NASA Senior Review to extend mission approved through 2009

11 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ingest into AWIPS

12 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration LMA Imagery in AWIPS 17 height levels Lowest level is composite Auto-loads 2 min grids Grids 1 km x 1 km, or 2 km x 2 km horizontal, 1 km vertical Future Algorithm- use first VHF pulse to identify flash, ratio IC:CG grid for more rapid storm tendency insight Can dither image with NEXRAD reflectivity and velocity, satellite, or any other fields CompositedBZ NLDN5-min LMA2-minVIL SVR Upgraded to TOR

13 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration A B A B HID dBZ ZDR KDP ARMOR: Winds and HID ARMOR-88D WINDS OPERATIONAL: 88D, LMA AND GOES RESEARCH: ARMOR HID OPERATIONAL: ARMOR HID Courtesy Walt Petersen

14 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Total Lightning Impacts Decision Making…. oHas directly contributed to several correct severe warning decisions at HUN and BMX –“…the LMA density map gives you a great overall view of where storms with intensifying updrafts are located. So it gives you a good map of where to concentrate attention.” –“I believe the flash density rates were the primary factor in holding off on a warning.” oUsed in Warning Event Simulator (WES) for office training

May 6, 2003 Case Ill-defined Rotational Couplet 1.5º SRM 0.5 º SRM 0.5 º Refl LMA Source Density 1236 UTC

May 6, 2003 Case Broad Rotational Couplet Lightning Jump 1.5º SRM 0.5 º SRM 0.5 º Refl LMA Source Density 1246 UTC

Lightning 'hole' and convective surge 'C' in tornadic storm, 0629 STEPS 2000 Lightning Hole Convective surge Lightning hole (WER)

LMA Benchmarking: Interim Results Warning Variable Rankings on Scale of 1-10 Warning Variable All Surveys LMA+ impact=9/19 Severe Storms 80 warnings, 13 surveys Tornado 41 Warnings, 6 surveys Reflectivity Signatures LMA Total Lightning Near storm Environment Eyewitness Report Strong Rotation Boundaries NLDN CGs TVS Previous SVR WX

19 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Southern Thunder Workshop #2 Fort Worth, Texas 25-27, 2005 One of the Workshop Recommendations: Due to cancellation of VORTEX-II Experiment in 2007, pursue newly available opportunity to deploy, evaluate, and assess the scientific and technological merits of total lightning mapping with the NMT portable LMA in an additional operational setting. Why DC Metro Area: Transitional climatic regime, yet still many severe storms Coverage of 3 major heavily used airports Complex terrain to west, urban environment Sterling WFO history of supporting new technology assessments – Leverage with on-going TDWR evaluations Proximity of MDL developers to WFO forecasters Access to students, faculty for system operations/maintenance Local interest (broadcast community, researchers, forecasters)

DC Lightning Mapping Array – Strawman Topology Circles: 150 km radius (approx. 3D coverage) 250 km radius (approx. max range) 68 km

25 km Strawman DC Metro Lightning Mapping Network Major Airports (Oklahoma LMA as template) Mapping Stations

Current Date/Time11:55 PM Tue 4 July 2006 Subject: Tornado(S)/Severe Thunderstorm(S) /Floods/ High Wind Etc.Severe Thunderstorms Impact National 4 th of July Festivities at District of Columbia (D.C.) Mall Event: Description/Time Of Triggering Event For FTR (E.G., Deaths, Injuries, And Damage Occurred) A cluster of severe thunderstorms moved through the D.C. as 80,000 people were gathering on the Mall to attend 4th of July activities. MIC Jim Lee and SOO Steve Zubrick staffed the multi-agency D.C. Command Center to support the national Fourth of July Celebration on the Mall. WFO Sterling provided information to the Command Center and DC emergency management via phone and NAWAS while Jim and Steve provided on-site briefings and support. The 80,000 attendees were evacuated from the Mall in advance of the storm. The evacuation took about 15 minutes, and was a direct result of numerous NWS briefings. The storm blew down trees and tents in and around the mall. Location:District of Columbia Damage: (Include Dollar Estimates, If Possible)Large elm trees and tents were blown down on the Mall. Airborne debris was noted at the height of storm. A peak wind gust of 47 mph was observed at National Airport in associate with this storm. Outlooks: (e.g., SPC and/or HWO), if appropriateThe potential for severe thunderstorms was noted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook issued at 3:55 AM on July 1; the D.C. areas was included in the Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 outlooks; SPC placed the D.C. area in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather on July 3; the severe thunderstorm potential was highlighted in the LWX Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at 3:00 PM July 3. Watches In Effect? Type And Number/ Valid Time Severe Thunderstorm Watch #582 issued at 12:40 PM, valid until 9:00 PM. Warnings In Effect? Type And Time Issued/ Valid Time Severe Thunderstorm Warning for D.C. issued at 4:45 PM, in effect until 6:00 PM. Verification: (Time Severe Weather/Flooding, etc. was first reported in affected County/Area); Lead Time Large elm trees were reported down at 5:15 PM; reported by National Park Service via Jim Lee at the Command Center…warning lead time 30 minutes. Service: (Significant Briefing, etc.)Numerous briefings were conducted both on-site at the Command Center and via phone/NAWAS by WFo Sterling. During the warning valid period, additional NAWAS briefings were conducted to give D.C. area officials time of arrival and threat information specifically for the Mall areas. Systems: (Issues With AWIPS, WSR-88D, NWR, ASOS, etc.)None. Staffing Issues:None. After evaluating potential threat, WFO Sterling had 5 forecasters and 2 HMT on station for the event, along with MIC Jim Lee and SOO Steve Zubrick providing on-site support at the D.C. Command Center. Media Attention:Unknown at this time. User Response:WFO Sterling received praise from the D.C. Command Center and Smithsonian Folklife Festival immediately following the event for the excellent and timely flow of information and weather support provided by the office. DC Severe Thunderstorms 4 July 2006

“I used the DC-LMA web site to view updates on lightning activity during my shift at the command center (through about 3:45 PM). It was VERY useful, since I had no other "real- time" lightning data available. I used various links to NWS forecasts, radar, and satellite data via the Internet to conduct weather briefings to the command center staff. In addition, our WFO staff kept an eye on the DC area via all of the data available in AWIPS. … the DC-LMA data were VERY useful in monitoring storm activity. I was able to show the center staff where the lightning was occurring. In addition, I monitored changes in lightning coverage/intensity as a rough gauge of thunderstorm changes in intensity.” Steve Zubrick WFO Sterling (LWX) DC Severe Thunderstorms 4 July 2006

24 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration DC Metro LMA Demo Network 9 July 2006 at 2300 UTC 5-station LMA source densityNEXRAD Reflectivity

25 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Enhanced Thunder 19 July Z – 2012Z NCEP SPC/Schaefer SPC Experimental Product

F15 SREF 3-hr COMBINED PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING - Pr (CPTP) >= 1 x Pr (PCPN) >=.01” Uncalibrated probability of lightning SPC Experimental Product

27 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration 1 hr 2 hrs 3 hrs 4 hrs Warn-on-forecast (warnings out to 4 hours based upon observations + short term model forecasts) Warn on Forecast Concept Courtesy Kevin Kelleher, SDR Grand Challenges

28 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF Thunderstorm Premises and Objectives WRF: Weather Research and Forecast Model CRM: Cloud Resolving Model Additional Forecast Interests CI - convective initiation T i - First lightning (35 dBZ at -15C, glaciation) T p - Peak flash rate  VIL (Mass) T f - Final lightning Given: 1.Precipitating ice aloft is correlated with LTG rates 2.Mesoscale CRMs are being used to forecast convection 3.CRMs can represent many ice hydrometeors (crudely) Goals: 1.See if WRF can forecast LTG threat, based on ice flux in layers near -15 C.

29 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF Thunderstorm and Lightning Forecasts: Methodology 1.Use high-resolution (2-4 km) WRF simulations to prognose convection 2.Develop diagnostics from model output fields to serve as a proxy for LTG 3.Create 0-6 h forecasts of LTG threat based on WRF data 4.Compare WRF forecasts with actual reflectivity and LTG and other observations using HSV area assets 5.Subjectively and objectively evaluate WRF capabilities for forecasting LTG

30 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF Thunderstorm and Lightning Forecasts: 10 December 2004

31 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF Configuration 10 December 2004 Case Study 4km horizontal resolution 37 vertical levels Dynamics and physics –Eulerian mass core –Dudhia SW radiation –RRTM LW radiation –YSU PBL scheme –Noah LSM –WSM 6-class microphysics scheme –Explicit convection 24h forecast initialized at 00 UTC 10 December 2004 with AWIP212 NCEP EDAS analysis Eta 3-h forecasts used for LBC’s Cloud cover 18h forecast valid at 18 UTC 10 Dec 2004

32 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF vs Eta Surface-based CAPE 18h fcst valid 18 UTC Dec 10

33 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF Sounding ~ 800 J/kg CAPE

34 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration MIPS Sounding ~ 761 J/kg CAPE Low level lapse rates and low freezing level efficient for converting CAPE to kinetic energy Surface: T=15C, Td=10C Similar CAPE to MIPS, but for different reasons High-res RAMS storm: Max w = 19 m/s UAH MIPS, Kevin Knupp

35 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF vs Eta 3h Regional Precip. 21h fcst valid 21 UTC 10 Dec 2004

36 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF vs Eta 3h Local Precip. 21h fcst valid 21 UTC 10 Dec 2004 Question: Any lightning, when was it, What was WRF reflectivity at -15 C?

37 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration x1 x2 WRF Reflectivity (dBZ) at -15 C (4.0 km) 1200 UTC forecast valid at 18:50 UTC 10 Dec 2004

38 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration x1: Reflectivity (dBZ), Temperature (°C), and Pressure (hPa) 1200 UTC forecast valid at 18:50 UTC 10 Dec 2004 Max dBZ< 40 dBZ

39 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration x2: Reflectivity (dBZ), Temperature (°C), and Pressure (hPa) 6h 50m forecast valid at 18:50 UTC 10 Dec 2004 Max dBZ~50 dBZ; wmax only 4 m/s; But no hail reaches the surface

40 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ground-truth Report of Dime-Size Hail Owens Crossroads, AL, 10 Dec 2004

dBZ ZDR ARMOR: 12/10/04 17:55:06 EL=1.3 o Rain 55+ dBZ Hail 55+ dBZ Rain 2 to 3.5 dB Hail -1 to 0.5 dB Hail -1.5 to 0.5 dB Rain/Hail -0.5 to 2 dB Rain/Hail dBZ Hail dBZ At 17:55 IC fl. rate ~ 3/minute in southern cell No IC’s in northern cell at 17:55 No CG’s in either cell for 20 minutes centered on 17:55 Only 3 CG’s detected for duration of storms LMA S. Cell 17:52:30 – 17:57:30

42 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration LMA Observed Flashes Precede Hail Report

43 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration High-res RAMS “Validation” Run 500 m horizontal resolution Height  z is variable, from 250 m at bottom to 750 m at 20 km height Domain 75 km x 75 km x 24.5 km Time,  t = 4 s, five acoustic steps between Smagorinsky subgrid mixing scheme 5-class precipitating hydrometeors: –Rain, snow, aggregates, graupel, hail Initialized with 3K warm bubble, radius=12 km at z=0 120 min simulation, initiation effects dominate until t=60 min Reflectivity Note: wmax reaches 19 m/s

44 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration RAMS Graupel Cross-Section 500 m horizontal resolution Height  z is variable, from 250 m at bottom to 750 m at 20 km height Domain 75 km x 75 km x 24.5 km Time,  t = 4 s, five acoustic steps between Smagorinsky subgrid mixing scheme 5-class precipitating hydrometeors: –Rain, snow, aggregates, graupel, hail Initialized with 3K warm bubble, radius=12 km at z=0 120 min simulation, initiation effects dominate until t=60 min Graupel

45 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration RAMS Hail Cross-Section 500 m horizontal resolution Height  z is variable, from 250 m at bottom to 750 m at 20 km height Domain 75 km x 75 km x 24.5 km Time,  t = 4 s, five acoustic steps between Smagorinsky subgrid mixing scheme 5-class precipitating hydrometeors: –Rain, snow, aggregates, graupel, hail Initialized with 3K warm bubble, radius=12 km at z=0 120 min simulation, initiation effects dominate until t=60 min Hail Note: some hail reaches surface

46 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF Thunderstorm and Lightning Forecasts: 22 April 2005

47 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF Reflectivity at -15C: 22 April 2005

48 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF Graupel Flux at -15C: 22 April 2005

49 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration LMA Flash Extent Density: 22 April 2005

50 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF Thunderstorm and Lightning Forecasts: 30 March 2002

51 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF Reflectivity at -15C: 30 March 2002

52 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration WRF Graupel Flux at -15C: 30 March 2002

53 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration LMA Flash Extent Density: 30 March 2002

54 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Conclusions: 1. WRF forecasts of deep convection are useful, but of variable quality - Timing and intensity of convection are depicted fairly well - Location and morphology of storm systems sometimes wrong 2. WRF convection is deep enough, with sufficient reflectivity, to suggest lightning 3. WRF updraft strengths on 2-4 km grids often too weak, relative to observed weather and high-res RAMS simulations 4. WRF microphysics still too simple; need more ice categories 5. Finer model mesh may improve updraft representation, and hydrometeor amounts 6. Biggest limitation is likely errors in initial mesoscale fields

55 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Future Work: 1. Expand catalog of simulation cases to obtain robust statistics 2. Develop quantitative metrics for LTG forecasts - Need link between graupel flux and lightning probabilities, rates 3. Compare LTG threat parameter against environmental variables- CAPE, LI, etc. 4. Enhance accuracy of WRF forecasts 5. Hot start WRF applied to archived North Alabama WES cases

56 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration 2006 Nowcasting and Assessment Plans 1. Thunderstorm Forecasts/Lightning Threat  Analysis of SPoRT WRF 2 km simulations  Analysis of 22 April 2005 Alabama event with OU 2 km WRF  Complete 10 December 2004 North Alabama Case study  Complete P. Gatlin M.S. thesis  Develop AWIPS lightning threat product and assessment (LMA+NLDN)  North Alabama (additional) WES Cases Develop more extensive training case for other WFOs based on the 6 May 2003 outbreak Quantitative analysis of archived WES severe event cases  NCEP SPC 2007 Spring Program participation/collaboration  Hazardous Weather Test bed- NASA-UAH/SPC-NSSL Collaboration 2. LMA Extensions  DC LMA Demo- NWS OST, Eastern Region  GTRI Extension of NALMA to Atlanta (+2 stations)  NCAR Autonowcaster/4DWX at RTTC (LMA + ARMOR)  GOES-N Science Test, November 2006  GOES R nowcasting experiment- NY area

57 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration  Shared interest to improve forecasts by infusing new technology and applying emerging research techniques  Identify goals and objectives of collaboration Improve warning decision making Increased confidence and situational awareness Increase lead time, reduce false alarms Lightning hazard forecast and warning  Need to have advocates in the WFOs Key Elements to Successful Transition

58 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration LMA Web Calendar

59 NWS SOO-NASA SPoRT Workshop 11-13, July, 2006 Earth Science Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration Web Sites  (SPoRT, Workshops)  (North AL, DC Metro LMA)  (OK LMA)