Presented by: Mike Paglia- Director, Retail Insights October 2014 Mapping the Overlap: Dollar Tree & Family Dollar.

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Presentation transcript:

Presented by: Mike Paglia- Director, Retail Insights October 2014 Mapping the Overlap: Dollar Tree & Family Dollar

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail Copyright © 2014 Kantar Retail. All Rights Reserved. 501 Boylston Street, Suite 6101, Boston, MA (617) No part of this material may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photography, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without the express written permission of Kantar Retail. The printing of any copies for back up is also strictly prohibited. Disclaimers The analyses and conclusions presented in this seminar represent the opinions of Kantar Retail. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the management of the retailer(s) under discussion. This seminar is not endorsed or otherwise supported by the management of any of the companies covered during the course of the workshop or within the following slides.

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail About These Markets Assuming the merger between Family Dollar and Dollar Tree goes through, it’s a near certainty that a number of store closings will follow. A normal part of any merger between two large retailers, store closures will be driven by two main factors 1.Internal analysis by the two companies to identify underperforming stores 2.A condition for FTC approval in order to alleviate potential anti-trust issues while ultimately protecting the interests of the shopper The first driver can’t accurately be addressed until the deal closes and the integration begins. We can get to some level of clarity around the second point, however. Comparing the store bases of the two retailers reveals 15 geographies that have relatively high levels of store overlap. Taken together, these markets represent approximately 1,000 locations between the two store bases. And while not definitive, the exercise does help to identify “candidate markets” that seem more likely than others to experience a level of store contraction. That said, such an analysis ought to be used as one input into a larger equation that ultimately will help suppliers assess the coming changes and successfully navigate the transition. Source: Kantar Retail analysis 3

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail This Town Isn’t Big Enough for Both of Us… Source: Kantar Retail analysis; store visits 4

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail The 30,000 Foot View Concentrations in Texas and the eastern US ; especially major metro areas Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 5

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail 1. Houston, TX Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 6 Store base composition

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail 2. Memphis, TN Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 7 Store base composition

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail 3. Dallas, TX Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 8 Store base composition

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail 4. San Antonio, TX Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 9 Store base composition

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail 5. Jacksonville, FL Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 10 Store base composition

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail 6. Philadelphia, PA Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 11 Store base composition

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail 7. Chicago, IL Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 12 Store base composition

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail 8. Indianapolis, IL Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 13 Store base composition

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail 9. El Paso, TX Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 14 Store base composition

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail 10. Charlotte, NC Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 15 Store base composition

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail 11. Tampa, FL Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 16 Store base composition

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail 12. Orlando, FL Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 17 Store base composition

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail 13. Louisville, KY Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 18 Store base composition

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail 14. Miami, FL Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 19 Store base composition

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail 15. Cincinnati, OH Source: Kantar Retail analysis; AggData 20 Store base composition

© Copyright 2014 Kantar Retail Contact: Mike Paglia Director, Retail Insights T: