Marine Protected Areas, Ecosystem-based Adaptation: Building a Resilient Network of Partnerships Ruth Blyther Director, Eastern Caribbean Program Anne Marie Hoffman Coastal Conservation Project Manager, USVI Program The Nature Conservancy

# of People Living Below 10m and in Reef Zone Low Medium High Very High Reefs at RiskWorld Risk Index Very Low Low Medium High Very High Global analysis People at Risk & Reefs at Risk

What cost?

Caribbean Challenge Initiative Caribbean Political and Business Leaders 4 10/23/2015

Ecological Vulnerability Socio-Economic Vulnerability Total Vulnerability Marjo Aho Building an integrated view of climate and disaster risks

Exposure Sensitivity Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Nature’s Services Integrated vulnerability

Increase Adaptive capacity Increase Adaptive capacity Reduce Sensitivity Reduce Sensitivity

Social Sensitivity Index - Age - Access to radio/internet Critical Infrastructure & Facilities Sensitivity Index - Fire stations - Roads - Emergency Shelters Adaptive Capacity Index - Education - Health care - Income Socio- Economically Vulnerable Communities

MIKE 21 Flexible Mesh used for Storm Surge Modeling

Mangrove Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity Migration Index Slope Elevation Adjacent land use Hydrologic connectivity Exposure Elevation relative to SLR Sensitivity SizeShapeOpennessHabitat type Species richness Watershed characterization Basin size Basin land use Mangrove Vulnerability Framework 1.Where could mangroves potentially move? 2.Which mangroves are most/least vulnerable to SLR?

LOWER HIGHER Mangrove Vulnerability Index = Migration index * 2 + Shape + Size + Openness + SLR Exposure + Habitat type + Species Richness + Watershed index

Facilitating an understanding of climate and disaster risk Photos by J Castano

Developing integrated adaptation and disaster risk reduction plans ACTION PLAN + Science Participatory mapping Community surveys

PILOT SITE WORK Grenville Area, Grenada

Opportunities Ideal situation to study wave attenuation, reduce flooding impacts and inform reef engineering solutions Opportunity to work on both reef and mangrove solutions Some interest from large fishing community and community involvement on implementing action plans Strong partner collaboration: GFC, Red Cross, fishers Government is already working with us via Physical Planning and Fisheries who are doing excellent work Opportunities for further funding from Caribbean Development Bank Short term goals: Building on VCA and P3DM, mangrove planting at telescope Long term goals: Mangrove island, fishers village/livelihood actions

All Connected in a Global Decision Support System