WCRP Update / WCC-3 Outcomes Ghassem R. Asrar Director, WCRP Vladimir Ryabinin SSO, JPS for WCRP &

Intermediate & Long-Term Planning : WCRP focuses on implementing the Strategic Framework COPES (Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System) through the work of projects and pan-WCRP initiatives post-2013(15): to align closer to the scientific requirements of the time and achieve a more effective interfacing with the users of climate informational products, a new WCRP structure will be needed

Intermediate Plan: Pre-2015 Outline of the major challenges in research on physical components of the climate system: the oceans, cryosphere, water and energy cycle, atmosphere chemistry and dynamics, and the complex interactions within and among them. List of specific activities that WCRP will implement to reach its goal of delivering science in support of societal needs. New thrusts: decadal predictability, sea-level variability and change, climate extremes, and atmospheric chemistry – climate interactions. Ongoing areas of investigation: climate change projections, seasonal predictions, monsoons, and polar research.

Activities in support of WCRP Key Deliverables (& SPARC’s contributions): Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction Sea-Level Variability and Change Climate Extremes Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Centennial Climate Change Projections Seasonal Climate Prediction Monsoons and Climate Polar Activities IP and SPARC

Activities in support of WCRP Integrating Themes: Climate-quality datasets and analysis: capacity for gathering, processing and sharing observational data for model evaluation and initialization SPARC Data Center SPARC IPY Project SPARC data assimilation activities SPARC data initiative on chemical observations – need to be looked at in conjunction with the GCOS IP and in the light of continuing AC&C initiative, which initially has been focusing on modeling issues but will eventually step beyond them Reprocessing of satellite records for climate – how and what to coordinate between GEWEX and SPARC? IP and SPARC

Activities in support of WCRP Integrating Themes: New generation of climate system models: higher-spatial resolution with explicit treatment of convection and GW, better representation of earth system processes and domains eg up to mesosphere DynVar CCMVal – to extend the experience of process-oriented validation to other areas AC&C – need to make sure there is progress in all intended types of experiments ACPC SPARC Contributions to CMIP5, CHFP, CorDex – JSC-30 encouraged SPARC and other WCRP projects to organize and publish analyses of CMIP5 output, post plans and links to results on the ACC website IP and SPARC

Activities in support of WCRP Integrating Themes: Next generation of climate experts: building capacity regionally and globally How will SPARC contribute? C-SPARC Summer School – repeat, extend? SPARC GAs and young scientists – great example What else? IP and SPARC

Activities in support of WCRP Integrating Themes: Strengthening partnership with relevant GEC programmes especially IGBP, GCOS, WWRP, GEO, World Bank, START, WMO Programmes For SPARC: –SPARC + IGAC: Atmospheric Chemistry & Climate –SPARC + IGAC + GEWEX + WGNE: TTL & Convection –SPARC + GAW – more interaction & coordination probably needed (sat. obs + in situ) –SPARC + satellite agencies: wide avenue for cooperation –SPARC + CliC and others: “polar initiative” –SPARC + WGSIP: Stratospheric HFP proposed –SPARC + WOAP –SPARC + WGCM: seem to proceed well but issue: is there enough uptake of fantastic progress in WGCM IPCC work? IP and SPARC

Future: Post-2013(15) Long-Term Strategy: New WCRP functions/structure to: - promote/facilitate research on frontiers of climate/Earth system - promote the need for & use of climate information, products & services Three or four Themes/Panels? Regional climate prediction as a separate theme or fitted better within a processes/modelling theme or an applications/impacts theme? What’s the role, nature, duration of cross-cutting activities? How to ensure societal needs are met and there is effective engagement with stakeholders? How to ensure continued engagement of climate research community, i.e. scientists, sponsors, project offices, etc., in any new theme/structure?

WCRP should maintain the rigor of its science and remained focused on core physical science, addressing new science areas in partnerships with others - don’t drop key issues but maintain freedom to operate The function of WCRP should be to provide the science that underpins understanding and predicting of climate leading to societal benefits. Communication and capacity building are also key issue, ref. COPES document Scales: an emerging need to move to regional scales whilst getting the global scales right. WCRP needs to have the capability to enable climate prediction from seasonal to centennial and global to local scales. Not only this is important for impacts but also there is now a variety of science results that are critically dependent on regional issues (e.g. the workshop of today’s AM). Function (Conclusions from JSC-30)

SPARC’s Future, Issues How to ensure the full scope of atmospheric research and integration for climate prediction/projection in WCRP (involves SPARC, GEWEX and CLIVAR)? Atmospheric chemistry and dynamics – is this the correct theme? How does this affect or is affected or needs to work together with by IGAC/IGBP? What are the sub-themes, activities or foci for research coordination? –Atmospheric chemistry (,pollution?) and climate –Stratosphere and predictability –Atmosphere / stratosphere dynamics (and predictability?) –Change detection and attribution –Solar effects –Mesosphere? –Others? SPARC IPO – WCRP confirms the commitment to work towards finding its future home, and an orderly transition…

WCRP Science Conference 2011 Scientific Knowledge for Climate Adaptation, Mitigation and Risk Management –Motivation: inputs to next IPCC AR5, progress on implementing COPES, 30th WCRP anniversary –Structure: symposia on cross-cutting themes/topics, i.e. CMIP5 results, reanalysis, decadal predictions, regional climate change, earth system data assimilation, etc… –Venue: most likely USA, choice among Denver and Seattle, proposals being reviewed –Attendance: expected around 1500 participants –First actions: programme and organizing committee formed. Jim Hurrell agreed to be the chair of the committee. –Time: April – May 2011.

Next JSC February 2010 Antalya, Turkey Special Joint Session with WMO-Commission for Climatology Major focus on the research that underpins climate services Addressing WCRP visioning: post 2013

World Climate Conference-3 Better climate information for a better future Geneva, Switzerland 31 August–4 September 2009

FWCC 1979 (concern + exploration) WCP, WCRP, IPCC SWCC 1990 (political process + basis for decision) GCOS, UNFCCC WCC (societal services: climate prediction and information for global action) ‘Legacy of World Climate Conferences’

The theme of World Climate Conference-3: ‘Climate Prediction and Information for Decision-making’ Focus: 1. Study needs and potential for contribution of scientific advances in climate prediction and information services at seasonal to multi-decadal time-scales to the reduction of the risks associated with the current climate variability and the imminent climate change. 2. Seek commitments to do that. Structure of two segments: Expert: 31 August - 2 September 2009 High-Level: 3-4 September 2009

WCC-3 Outcome Global Framework for Climate Services

WCC3 – Expert Segment Called for major strengthening of the essential elements of a global framework for climate services: The Global Climate Observing System and all its components and associated activities; and provision of free and unrestricted exchange and access to climate data; The World Climate Research Programme, underpinned by adequate computing resources and increased interaction with other global climate relevant research initiatives. Climate services information systems taking advantage of enhanced existing national and international climate service arrangements in the delivery of products, including sector-oriented information to support adaptation activities; Climate user interface mechanisms focussed on building linkages and integrating information, at all levels, between the providers and users of climate services; and Efficient and enduring capacity building through education, training, and strengthened outreach and communication.

WCC3 – High-Level Segment Decided to establish Global Framework for Climate Services WMO will take the lead in putting together a task- force of high-level independent advisors The task-force will make recommendations on the elements of the Framework and the steps for its development and implementation WMO congress in 2011 will review the recommendations with a view to adopt the proposed plans

Once again, SPARC’s Future, Issues: How to ensure the full scope of atmospheric research and integration for climate prediction/projection in WCRP (involves SPARC, GEWEX and CLIVAR)? Atmospheric chemistry and dynamics – is this the correct theme? How does this take into account IGAC/IGBP? (joint project???) What are the sub-themes, activities or foci for research coordination? –Atmospheric chemistry (,pollution?) and climate –Stratosphere and predictability –Atmosphere / stratosphere dynamics (and predictability?) –Change detection and attribution –Solar effects –Mesosphere? –Others? SPARC IPO – WCRP confirms the commitment to work towards finding its future home, and an orderly transition…