Richard D. Rosen Richard D. Rosen Senior Advisor for Climate Research Jin Huang Jin Huang Deputy Director Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program Climate Program Office WGNE-26/GMPP-12 Tokyo, Japan October 18, 2010 NOAA

2 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) Climate Program Office National Ocean Service (NOS) National Environmental Satellite, Data & Information Service (NESDIS) National Weather Service (NWS) National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) NOAAs Climate Program Office

A Strategic Approach to Climate Programs 3 NOAA Labs & Centers NOAA Climate Program Office External institutional relationships Competitive Grants CPO integrates and coordinates Federal, academic, private, and international partners into a comprehensive, strategic approach to providing climate research and services for the nation. CPO integrates and coordinates Federal, academic, private, and international partners into a comprehensive, strategic approach to providing climate research and services for the nation. Strategic linkages

CPO Grant Programs CPO Grants Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, & Projections (MAPP) Earth System Science (ESS) Climate & Societal Interactions (CSI) Climate Observations & Monitoring (COM) 4

Select CPO Funding Opportunities FY2011 Climate data set development and diagnostics Climate change detection and attribution Paleoclimatology COM Decadal climate variability and predictability Understanding and improving prediction of tropical convection Improving the understanding and modeling of land surface processes The global carbon cycle Aerosols, atmospheric chemistry, and climate ESS Advances in regional-scale climate predictions and projections Develop an integrated drought prediction capability Evaluate recently developed reanalysis projects MAPP CSI-Water: Climate- impacts on urban water resource planning CSI-Coasts: Coastal resource management in a changing climate CSI-Transitions: Processes for transition of information products, with special consideration to water resources and coastal information Coping with Drought Initiative and NIDIS CSI 5

6 Transitioning to the Climate Service

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8 Proposed Climate Service

NOAAs Next Generation Strategic Plan Long-term goal: Climate Adaptation and Mitigation OBJECTIVES (in review) Improved scientific understanding of the changing climate system and its impacts Assessments of current and future states of the climate system that identify potential impacts and inform science, service, and stewardship decisions Mitigation and adaptation choices supported by sustained, reliable, and timely climate services A climate-literate public that understands its vulnerabilities to a changing climate and makes informed decisions

Climate Service: Vision and Mission Vision Statement By providing science and services, the NCS envisions an informed society capable of anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts Mission Statement Improve understanding and prediction of changes in climate and promote a climate- resilient society

N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Climate Service: Core Capabilities Address Societal Challenges

U.S. Climate Modeling Initiatives 12 U.S. Global Change Research Program o Developing new strategic plan to replace current (2003) one emphasis on end-to-end outreach activities to seek input over next year o Establishing a working group on modeling co-chaired by NOAA, NSF, and DOE Earth System Prediction Capability o Workshop held 7-10 September to: establish initial vision and goals for a program to collaborate on the development and operational implementation of a national ESPC: aspirational goal=0 days to 30 years identify scientific and technical challenges U.S. agency participants: Navy, NOAA, NASA, DOE, plus university observers

U.S. Climate Modeling Initiatives (cont.) 13 National Academy of Sciences/BASC study on A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling o High-level analysis to develop a strategic framework for improving U.S. capability to simulate climate and related Earth system changes on decadal to centennial time scales o Intended audience: researchers, federal agencies, national decision makers, and others to develop a shared vision of what the next generation of climate models should look like o Two-year study; committee now being formed o Funded by Intelligence Community, DOE, NOAA, Navy, NASA Related Activities o WCRP-UNESCO Workshop on Metrics and Methodologies of Estimation of Extreme Climate Events [27-29 September 2010, Paris] How well do climate models reproduce past extreme events? How well do operational models predict extreme events? What climate model output should be archived to assess the likelihood of future extreme events?

Climate Process Teams Goal: to accelerate development of global climate models and reduce uncertainties by bringing together theoreticians, field program scientists, process modelers, and modeling centers. NOAA and NSF funded four CPTs for FY10-12: 1.Bretherton, Teixeira, Mechoso, Park (NCAR), Pan (NCEP), and Klein (LLNL): Improving the representation of the stratocumulus to cumulus transition in climate models 2.Larson, Donner (GFDL), Golaz, and Ming: Cloud macrophysical parameterization and its application to indirect effect 3.MacKinnon and Hallberg (GFDL): Representing internal-wave driven mixing in global ocean models 4.Jin and Hallberg (GFDL): Ocean mixing processes associated with high spatial heterogeneity in sea ice and the implications for climate models