Missouri Economic Update What to Expect in 2014 Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research.

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Presentation transcript:

Missouri Economic Update What to Expect in 2014 Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research

Economic Headwinds ACA Government Shutdown/Debt Slow growth in Europe Declining Labor Force (Demographics/Govt. Policies) Result—anemic economic growth and little to no employment growth

Real GDP (Millions of 2009$)

Quarter to Quarter Change in Real GDP

US Employment (Household Survey)

US Employment (Establishment Survey)

US Unemployment Rate

US Labor Force

1.33% 0.14%

Labor Force Participation Rate

Employment-Population Ratio

Index of Housing Prices ( )

Index of Real Housing Prices ( )

US and Missouri Compared (Percent Change in Real GDP by Sector 2009 to 2011)

US and Missouri Compared (Percent Change in Real GDP by Sector 2010 to 2011)

Missouri Business Loans Thds of 2012:2 SA dollars

Missouri Real Estate Loans Thds of 2012:2 SA dollars

Missouri Real Personal Income (2012:2 Constant $ SAAR)

Missouri Real Personal Income (2012:2 Constant $ SAAR and CAGR Trends) 2.9% 1.7% 2%

Growth in Real Personal Income (Year over Year) 1.4%

Missouri Real Median Household Income

Dollar Change in Real Average Weekly Wages (2011 to 2013)

Dollar Change in Real Average Weekly Wages (2007Q4 to 2013)

City Level Housing Prices (1995:1 =100; 1995 constant $)

Missouri Unemployment Rate

Missouri-US Unemployment Rate Difference

Major City Unemployment Rates

Other Unemployment Rates

Current County Unemployment Rate July 2013

Labor Force in Missouri

1.6% 0.6% -0.9%

Year to Year Change in Missouri Labor Force

Missouri Employment Peak of 2,914,418 Dec Trough of 2,755,850 Dec Avg 2,669, Avg 2,695,072 Current 2,701, = March 1998

Index of Missouri and US Employment (Jan 2000 = 100)

Missouri Employment (Percent Change Year over Year)

Percent Change in County Employment September 2011 to July 2013

Thank you! Questions?