1 The Kyoto Protocol Reaching Global Agreements 1997

2 What is the Kyoto Protocol? A global Agreement that set targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissionsA global Agreement that set targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions 175 countries signed up175 countries signed up

3 Participation in the Kyoto Protocol, as of June 2009, where dark green indicates the countries that have signed and ratified the treaty, grey is not yet decided and red is no intention to ratifyParticipation in the Kyoto Protocol, as of June 2009, where dark green indicates the countries that have signed and ratified the treaty, grey is not yet decided and red is no intention to ratify

4 Kyoto Protocol Aims: Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), aimed at combating global warming.Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), aimed at combating global warming. The aim of the treaty was "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system."The aim of the treaty was "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system." The Protocol was initially adopted on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and entered into force on 16 February 2005The Protocol was initially adopted on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and entered into force on 16 February 2005

5 Under the Protocol, 37 industrialized countries (called "Annex I countries") commit themselves to a reduction of four greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) and also fluorine gas compounds.Under the Protocol, 37 industrialized countries (called "Annex I countries") commit themselves to a reduction of four greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) and also fluorine gas compounds. Annex I countries agreed to reduce their collective greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% from the 1990 level. Emission limits do not include emissions by international aviation and shipping (in the too-hard box)Annex I countries agreed to reduce their collective greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% from the 1990 level. Emission limits do not include emissions by international aviation and shipping (in the too-hard box)

6 There were a number of ‘Articles’ that set out to achieve this Article 2: ways to fight GHGArticle 2: ways to fight GHG 2.1.a.i Enhance energy efficiency2.1.a.i Enhance energy efficiency 2.1.a.ii Protect and enhance the sinks2.1.a.ii Protect and enhance the sinks – –A carbon sink is anything that absorbs more carbon that it releases whilst a carbon source is anything that releases more carbon than they absorb. 2.1.a.iii Promote sustainable agriculture – by promoting farming methods that produce less GHG, especially in developing countries2.1.a.iii Promote sustainable agriculture – by promoting farming methods that produce less GHG, especially in developing countries 2.1.a.iv Research and promote renewable energy sources (wind, water, solar, biomass2.1.a.iv Research and promote renewable energy sources (wind, water, solar, biomass

7 Article 2.1.a.v Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ In some countries government policies or loopholes in subsidy regulations actually promote 'bad practice' in GHG emissions. Phase these out will push business and industry towards less polluting practices. Article 2.1.a.vii Limit GHG from transport GHG from transport is a big problem and getting bigger. Several government initiatives around the world have already arisen from Kyoto to cut transport GHG emissions. The development of dual fuel and electric vehicle technologies holds a great potential for cutting down this source of GHG. Some American states have set targets for clean fuel vehicles.

8 Article 2.1.a.viii Limit methane emissions through recovery and use Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, having about 20 times the climate forcing effect of carbon dioxide. Big man-made producers of methane are landfill sites Large landfill sites now commonly have these methane power stations which have the double attraction of producing energy and getting rid of the methane, albeit a carbon dioxide. Solid waste energy plants already operate successfully in the UK, using the methane generated from chicken manure to create power

9 Article 2.1.b Cooperate A theme which runs through much of the Kyoto protocol is for countries to cooperate. Sharing both advances in GHG technology and science. the greatest achievement of the protocol so far is to get so many countries together and talking on a central issue. Article 2.2. Cut GHG from aviation This one was never implemented as no-one could decide who would monitor it as international travel made an agreement to hard to reach.

10 Article 2.3. Be careful of wider impact - avoid adverse effects A cautionary note in Kyoto is to be careful of the wider impacts GHG reduction schemes may have. Some may be too costly to maintain for the benefit they provide, others may cause an unreasonable degree of disruption to the populace, industry etc. Hydroelectric dams are a good example of this. At first sight they seem to be all to the good as far as reducing GHG goes. However, not only does their construction often mean the loss of much land,and the displacement of its animals and humans, it can also end it up to be quite a big GHG emitter. Much of the organic matter washed into the lake behind the dam decays anaerobically in the depths, rather than aerobically as it would have done in the original river. This anaerobic break down produces lots of methane, a more powerful greenhouse gas than the normal CO2.

11 Article 3.1 Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by This article states that countries will stick to their agreed commitments, but does not specify what the penalties will be if you don’t. The EU and others wanted real penalties for failure, but other countries disagreed. This was one of the sources of contention over which the EU finally gave in to at the Bonn conference. Article 3.2 Everyone must have shown progress by 2005 The idea of this target is to get countries actively reducing their emissions before the first commitment period arrives (2008).

12 Article 3.3 Verifiable changes since 1990 in GHG emissions by sources and removals by sinks due to direct human-induced land-use change and forestry can be used to meet commitments The key problem here was how to establish what changes have occurred, again a source of much wrangling between countries. Although cutting emissions from fossil fuels should be the focus of efforts to limit global warming, forestry and land management activities can provide part of the answer. With their being a recognised part of Kyoto GHG balancing - tree planting schemes like this one in Mexico could become commonplace.

13 Article 3.4 Everyone must supply their level of ‘carbon stocks’ in 1990 so the change since can be estimated. BUT what sinks, sources and ‘additional activities’ which can be added or subtracted from GHG reduction commitments?

14 Article 4 Countries can meet their commitments together Article 5 All countries will have in place, at least a year before the first commitment period (2008), a national system for measuring GHG emission changes

15 The carbon budget for the earth as a whole is extremely complex, but our best models of the system suggest an increase in carbon in the atmosphere of about 3Gt per year. These kind of budgets need to be formulated as accurately as possible for each country

16 Article 6 Joint implementation - Countries can work together to meet their emission reduction targets This is one of the so called 'flexibility mechanisms' designed to help rich (annexe 1) countries meet their Kyoto commitment other than by directly cutting in their own emissions. It caused some of the biggest arguments, but it is agreed that without them the agreed reduction targets would have had to have been much smaller. Russia, currently going through economic instability but with a range of ‘dirty’ technology has been a large recipient of investment from the west, that then claim the savings made in emissions to off-set their own

17 Article 7 All countries will supply the extra information needed with the numbers it gives i.e. perceived wider impacts Article 8 All the information given by each country will be reviewed by expert, independent, review teams

18 Article 9 The protocol will be regularly reviewed in light of the best information available at the time Article 10 All countries should develop national and/or regional programmes to both limit GHG emissions and improve the quality of GHG data via consistent methods. Cooperate

19 Article 11 The richer countries will provide funds and technology to developing countries to help them better advance towards GHG reduction

20 Article 12 The Clean Development Mechanism This is another 'flexibility mechanisms' designed to help rich (annexe I) countries meet their Kyoto commitment. The clean development mechanism allows governments or private entities in rich countries to set up emission reduction projects in developing countries. They get credit for these reductions as 'certified emission reductions (CER's). This system is different form the Joint Implementation as it promotes sustainable development on developing countries. CDM can use afforestation (planting somewhere new) and reforestation (replanting where there once was some), or some other emissions reduction project like a rural electrification project using solar panels in a developing country. [Recall they were also going to pay for not cutting down trees but that was delayed until the implementation of REDD] CDM is a scheme

21 Article 12.5 (a) Voluntary participation by each country (b) Real, measurable, and long- term benefits related to mitigating climate change (c) Reductions must be additional to those which would occur anyway Some rules for the CDM are shown above.

22 Article 17 The final flexibility mechanism. A tradable carbon credit unit called AAU's (Assigned Amount Units) has been proposed which would represent one tonne of CO2 emissions. The advantages of this trading are that it drives countries to better efficiency in their own greenhouse gas emissions. Bur there is a worry that some rich countries will simply 'buy off' the GHG they produce and not take any action themselves. the idea of a 'cap on the amount of trading has been suggested, but has produced even more argument'. Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’

23 Kyoto Protocol Aims: Share of CO2 Emissions in 1990Share of CO2 Emissions in 1990 Industrialised countries to cut emissions to 5% below 1990 levels by 2008/12Industrialised countries to cut emissions to 5% below 1990 levels by 2008/12 Had varying targets EU by 8% and Japan 5% (It is a lower polluter)Had varying targets EU by 8% and Japan 5% (It is a lower polluter) Countries like Iceland were allowed to increase emissionsCountries like Iceland were allowed to increase emissions

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25 Problems with signing up Some delayed in signing up to Kyoto such as Russia who signed in 2004Some delayed in signing up to Kyoto such as Russia who signed in 2004 USA initially signed but then withdrew in 2001 following GW Bush’s election (USA emit 25% of world emissions)USA initially signed but then withdrew in 2001 following GW Bush’s election (USA emit 25% of world emissions)

26 How big a problem was the American Issue? The US was the biggest emitter at the time (36.1%) - it has since been overtaken by China –The US was the biggest emitter at the time (36.1%) - it has since been overtaken by China – So if they were going to continue polluting, why should other countries bother? Small countries efforts would have little overall impact on the total GHG.So if they were going to continue polluting, why should other countries bother? Small countries efforts would have little overall impact on the total GHG. George W was even saying that climate change was (a) not happening and (b) if there was some variation it was natural.George W was even saying that climate change was (a) not happening and (b) if there was some variation it was natural. He did however admit that being dependent on foreign (especially Muslim) oil supplies was a security issue and so went full tilt into producing biofuels from corn and soya, offering big money to his farmers to change from food production to biofuel production.He did however admit that being dependent on foreign (especially Muslim) oil supplies was a security issue and so went full tilt into producing biofuels from corn and soya, offering big money to his farmers to change from food production to biofuel production.

27 How big a problem was the American Issue? This forced up the world prices of food and encouraged deforestation of the Amazon, to grow soya to feed the beef cattle of the developed world.This forced up the world prices of food and encouraged deforestation of the Amazon, to grow soya to feed the beef cattle of the developed world. Meanwhile GW, whose ascent in politics was largely funded by the oil companies, remained friends with the oil barons – not an insignificant issue so far as he was concerned.Meanwhile GW, whose ascent in politics was largely funded by the oil companies, remained friends with the oil barons – not an insignificant issue so far as he was concerned. The Republican Party listened to its other big funders, the transnational companies (TNCs) who could not see the possibilities of more new business from the new technologies, but saw only costs and problems from having anything to do with climate change. So they were and still are all in favour of the no-change policy that opting out of Kyoto allowed them to follow.The Republican Party listened to its other big funders, the transnational companies (TNCs) who could not see the possibilities of more new business from the new technologies, but saw only costs and problems from having anything to do with climate change. So they were and still are all in favour of the no-change policy that opting out of Kyoto allowed them to follow.

28 Successes?

29 So what for the future? Renewable energy can only supply 10-15% of the UK’s energy needsRenewable energy can only supply 10-15% of the UK’s energy needs Must replace coal fired with nuclear power stationsMust replace coal fired with nuclear power stations Building nuclear power plants takes timeBuilding nuclear power plants takes time

30 What is Carbon offsetting? Forests and woodland cover 10% of the UK and they absorb CO 2 and store itForests and woodland cover 10% of the UK and they absorb CO 2 and store it Several UK and EU schemes allow businesses to offset their emissions by planting treesSeveral UK and EU schemes allow businesses to offset their emissions by planting trees However there is a limit to the amount of CO 2 that they can hold and therefore are limited in viabilityHowever there is a limit to the amount of CO 2 that they can hold and therefore are limited in viability UK woodland removes 4 million tonnes a yearUK woodland removes 4 million tonnes a year UK emits 150 million tonnes it would take a huge increase in woodland to offset all of UK emissionsUK emits 150 million tonnes it would take a huge increase in woodland to offset all of UK emissions

31 Alternatives Biomass fuels Wood fuel Wood fuel Ethanol and bio diesel Ethanol and bio diesel Alcohol fermented from sugar Alcohol fermented from sugar Oil extracted from soybeans Oil extracted from soybeans Methane Gas coming from rubbish dumps Methane Gas coming from rubbish dumps

32 Problems Unfortunately these rely on removing plants from the planet thus removing a carbon sink and need to be followed by mass replanting schemesUnfortunately these rely on removing plants from the planet thus removing a carbon sink and need to be followed by mass replanting schemes Growing biofuels reduces the land available to grow food and increases food prices as well as leaving more people liable to an inadequate dietGrowing biofuels reduces the land available to grow food and increases food prices as well as leaving more people liable to an inadequate diet

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34 Economic Impacts More extreme weather leads to increased costs equal to 1% of GDPMore extreme weather leads to increased costs equal to 1% of GDP 2-3 o C rise in temps reducing global economic output by 3%2-3 o C rise in temps reducing global economic output by 3% Poor countries ability to cope would be reduced with lack of basics like waterPoor countries ability to cope would be reduced with lack of basics like water

35 Copenhagen was supposed to be the next step But no protocol was signed.But no protocol was signed. However, it is not all disasterHowever, it is not all disaster –The Americans are on board –The Chinese and the Indians are both committed to reducing the impact of their growth – this does not mean they are cutting emissions in total but for each unit of production, the emission will be reduced substantially –The Brazilians have reduced deforestation for the first time in many years (partly due to the recession, it is true) by 45% on last year but they are committed to reducing deforestation by 80% by May be worth looking at the stuff on Cancun in the blog serve-oven-ready-redd-deal/ and other article with Cancun – do a search – top right of the page. serve-oven-ready-redd-deal/ serve-oven-ready-redd-deal/