1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey ( ) : President Rotary Club of Norwich District 1080 Environment Officer District 1080 ComVoc Chair Rotary Club of Felixstowe Landguard: April 26 th 2012 A Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future: A Rotarians Guide The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security and Cost of our Future Energy Supplies

2 Increasing Occurrence of Drought

3 Increasing Occurrence of Flood

Climate Change: Arctic meltdown Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه Source: Nasa 20% reduction in 24 years 20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنوات تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب

Is Global Warming natural or man-made? Natural causes Earths Orbit Sunspot Activity Volcanic Eruptions Etc. Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960 Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period. BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

Winter: October – March: Summer: April to September Compared to 1960 – in 2010, –13.1% less heating needed –And 106% more cooling. Temperature changes: Evidence in East Anglia Temperature rise in East Anglia over last 50 years is unequivocal Data to end of Oct is on track to be 2 nd warmest year (GLOBALLY) Despite cold in UK – December worldwide was 1 st /2 nd hottest ever

Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport. 7 Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions. FuelApprox emission factor Comments Coal900 – 1000g Depending on grade and efficiency of power station Gas400 – 430g Assuming CCGT – lower value for Yarmouth as it is one of most efficient in Europe Nuclear5 – 10gDepending on reactor type Renewables~ 0For wind, PV, hydro Overall UK~530g Varies on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix Norfolk and Suffolk is a very low carbon electricity generation zone in UK But current accounting procedures do not allow regions to promote this. A firm in Norfolk / Suffolk would have only 16% of carbon emissions from electricity consumption Suffolk & Norfolk (2009) ~83g Sizewell B, Yarmouth and existing renewables

8 Import Gap Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK Gas Production and Demand in UK Only 50% now provided by UK sources. Warning issued on 17 th April 2012 that over-reliance on Norway and imported LNG from Qatar will lead to price rises by end of year Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas. UK no longer self sufficient in gas Langeled Line to Norway Oil reaches $130 a barrel Severe Cold Spells

9 What about energy Prices In recent years, electricity retail prices have varied much less than wholesale prices and have also risen less. In Real Terms, Domestic Electricity Prices have only recently returned to 1981 levels

Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then 10 Options for Electricity Generation in Non-Renewable Methods Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Energy Review th May 2011 (*) Gas CCGT % (at present %) Available now (but gas is running out) ~2p + 8.0p [5 - 11] nuclear fission (long term) % (France 80%) - (currently 18% and falling) new inherently safe designs - some development needed p 7.75p [ ] nuclear fusionunavailable not available until 2040 at earliest not until 2050 for significant impact "Clean Coal" Coal currently ~40% but scheduled to fall Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration p [ ]p - unlikely before 2025 * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2009 Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after ?

11 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable Future prices from * Renewable Energy Review – 9 th May 2011 Climate Change Committee 1.5MW Turbine At peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p

12 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich Climate Change Committee (9 th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount Off Shore Wind % some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~ p 12.5p +/- 2.5

13 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Off Shore Wind % some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~ p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential p 11p for <2MW projects

14 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Off Shore Wind % some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~ p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential p 11p for <2MW projects Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW. Photovoltaic <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly 15+ p 25p +/-8

15 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Off Shore Wind % some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~ p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly 15+ p 25p +/-8 Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste. To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas ??5% available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced gasification p p depending on technology

16 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind % available but costly ~ p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW may be MW (~0.1%) techology limited - major development not before p 19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave

17 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind % available but costly ~ p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Streamn currently < 10 MW may be MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before p 19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave

18 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind % available but costly ~ p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW may be MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before p 19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009 Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs In Orkney – Churchill Barriers Output ~ GWh per annum - Sufficient for houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south. Would save tonnes of CO 2 Tidal Barrages5 - 15% technology available but unlikely for Construction time ~10 years. In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p +/-5

19 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind ~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind % available but costly ~ p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential p 11p for <2MW Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW ?? MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before p 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Tidal Barrages5 - 15% In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p +/-5 Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

20 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind ~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind % available but costly ~ p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential p 11p for <2MW Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW ?? MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before p 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Tidal Barrages5 - 15% In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p +/-5 Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

21 Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next years. [very expensive or technically immature or both] If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee [9 th May 2011] If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult

22 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

23 Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by Existing Coal Existing Nuclear Oil 23 Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by Existing Coal UK Gas Imported Gas New Nuclear New Coal Existing Nuclear Other Renewables Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Oil 1 new nuclear station completed each year after new coal station with CCS each year after million homes fitted with PV each year from % of homes fitted by GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by No electric cars or heat pumps Version suitable for Office 2003, 2007 & 2010

24 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797) Raising Awareness

25 Raising Awareness A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances up to kWh a year balloons. (up to £15 a year) A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year. Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gaoan No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

26 Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much as 9 times. Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness raising When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times Raising Awareness

27 Sustainable Options for the future? Energy Generation Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels – generally lees suitable for other businesses Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years). The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get! Renewable Heat Incentive available from 2012 Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer Approximate annual estimate of generation = installed capacity * 8760 * hours in year load/capacity factor of 9.5%

28 Pilot Lights £9 per week Pilot lights off Pilot Lights turned off during week District 1080 Community Service & Vocations Committee Awareness Raising and Good Record Keeping results in significant savings St Pauls Church, Tuckswood Heated by 3 warm air heaters New Strategy: pilot lights off throughout summer and used strategically in winter resulted in an annual saving of: 5400 kWh of gas; 1030 kg of CO 2 ; and a monetary saving of £260 Or a percentage saving of 38%

Which can spread the message Engage with Schools Dispel myths Use simple messages that people understand - often monetary values mean more Think about our own actions. –Tumble drying – once a week amounts to £25 a year Can we car share when going to District Council? –Four people travelled separately from North Norfolk to District 1080 Assembly. They would have emitted and extra 75kg CO 2 extra compared to travelling together at a cost of £30 extra in fuel. Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon reduction in the UK. Energy Security will increasingly affect us in next 10 years Global warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the planet in the developing world in the next 10 years Addressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also help with Global Warming Otherwise the Young will suffer during their life times. We in Rotary have the resources to work with the Young to combat the challenges facing us. Rotary is a Community 29

billion people 0.94 billion people Raw materials 1.03 billion people Products : 478 Mtonnes CO 2 increase in 3 years Aid & Education The Unbalanced Triangular Trade Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO 2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years Water issues are equally important. Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ tonnes of water Ethical Issues of International Trade

Lao Tzu ( BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading. And Finally Engage with the Local Community / Schools? –To promote awareness –To Join together to get discounts on sustainable projects Share a remote reading meter around your club to help members/local community cut their energy consumption, improve energy security, cut carbon emissions and save money? Is there merit in organising a District Workshop on Environmental Issues? e.g. –raising awareness where the individual can save money? –Providing a sustainable and energy secure future for our children –Engaging with the community to protect the environment. What could Rotary Do? 31

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33 Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by Existing Coal UK Gas Imported Gas New Nuclear New Coal Existing Nuclear Other Renewables Offshore Wind Onshore Wind 1 new nuclear station completed each year after new coal station fitted with CCS each year after million homes fitted with PV each year from % of homes fitted by GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now

Existing Coal Oil UK Gas Imported Gas New Nuclear New Coal Other Renewables Offshore Wind Onshore Wind 1 new nuclear station completed each year after new coal station fitted with CCS each year after million homes fitted with PV each year from % of homes fitted by GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation Existing Nuclear 34