World Climate Research Programme Moving Towards Future WCRP Progress and Plans Ghassem R. Asrar

Mission & Objectives World Climate Research Programme coordinates climate research, modeling and analysis to improve; (1)climate predictions and (2)our understanding of human influence on climate “for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society” (WCRP Strategic Framework ).

Major Events Intermediate-term Plan Sponsors’ Plans and Planning - World Climate Conference-3 - OceanObs ICSU Visioning Long-term Strategy

WCRP Implementation Plan The Interdisciplinary Nature of Climate Science –Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate –Cryosphere and Climate –Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics –Water, Energy and Climate Meeting the Information Needs of Society Activities in Support of Key Deliverables –Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction –Sea-Level Variability and Change –Climate Extremes –Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics –Centennial Climate Change Projections –Seasonal Climate Prediction Activities in Support of WCRP Integrating Themes –Climate-Quality Data Sets and Analyses –A New Generation of Climate System Models –Next Generation of Climate Experts: Developing Capacity Regionally and Globally

WCC-3 Conference Statement Great recognition of scientific progress made through WCRP and its associated activities Call for major strengthening of observations and research Support the development of the Global Framework for Climate Services

Called for major strengthening of the essential elements of a global framework for climate services:  The Global Climate Observing System and all its components and associated activities; and provision of free and unrestricted exchange and access to climate data;  The World Climate Research Programme, underpinned by adequate computing resources and increased interaction with other global climate relevant research initiatives.  Climate services information systems taking advantage of enhanced existing national and international climate service arrangements in the delivery of products, including sector-oriented information to support adaptation activities;  Climate user interface mechanisms focussed on building linkages and integrating information, at all levels, between the providers and users of climate services; and  Efficient and enduring capacity building through education, training, and strengthened outreach and communication. WCC3 – Expert Segment

Conference Objective Strengthen and enhance the international framework under GCOS, GOOS, WCRP, IGBP and supporting regional and national frameworks for sustained world ocean observing and information systems supporting the needs of society about ocean weather, climate, ecosystems, carbon and chemistry “Ocean Information for society: sustaining the benefits, realizing the potential”

ICSU 29th General Assembly (Maputo, October 2008) “to note that Committee on Scientific Planning Review (CSPR) is planning to organize a consultation, including a high- level meeting, with relevant partners to outline options for an overall framework for global environmental change research and its policy relevance, once the reviews of IGBP and WCRP are completed.” Earth System Visioning

DRAFT: Grand Challenges in Global Sustainability A Systems Approach to Research Priorities for the Decade Challenge #1: Substantially improve the utility and reduce the uncertainty associated with regional forecasts of future environmental conditions and their consequences for people. Challenge #2: Develop the observation systems needed to manage global environmental change. Challenge #3: Determine how to anticipate, avoid and cope with dangerous global environmental change. Challenge #4: Develop institutional and governance arrangements that can ensure global sustainability. Challenge #5: Develop and evaluate innovative responses to achieve global sustainability.

Deliberation World Climate Conference-3, OceanObs ‘09, acknowledge WCRP past contributions and identify challenges and opportunities for the future. Need for more flexibility/agility to respond to expanding climate information needs: At regional scale For key sectors of global economy For impacts, adaptation, vulnerability, mitigation and risk assessment.

WCRP Visioning: Long-term functions and structure of the WCRP Future Directions JSC-31: Major Topics Role of climate research, in particular, WCRP, within the Global Framework for Climate Services and ICSU Global Sustainability Research Program

WCRP Long-term Functions/Structure JSC -31 discussions on coordination of; Observations and analysis Model development, evaluation and experiments Processes and understanding Climate Information/applications & education

WCRP Long-term Functions/Structure Observations & Analysis Form an Observations & Analysis Council Communicate and coordinate with GCOS, WMO,… on observations requirements for climate research; Advocate and advise on standards, ensure data availability, identify data needs,… Catalyze interactions between observation and modelling communities Enable production, documentation and inter-comparison of CDRs/EDRs Maintain existing structures (AOPC, OOPC, TOPC..) for disciplinary data stewardship, but greater emphasis on re-analyses and use of observations.

WCRP Long-term Functions/Structure Modelling Formation of a Modeling Council Coordination among WCRP modeling groups Promote/support seamless approach and Earth system framework (communication platform w/ WWRP, IGBP, other partners) Reports to the Joint Scientific Committee Maintain WGCM, WGSIP, WGNE until further discussion by Modelling Council

WCRP Long-term Functions/Structure Processes & Understanding Three types of process studies identified To test and evaluate models To study underlying phenomena Overarching, often with regional focus JSC-31 consensus Core projects, with JSC oversight, to manage process studies, better coordination across Projects Regional issues to be dealt with within Projects

Sponsor participation of early career scientists and graduate students in WCRP scientific and technical meetings 50 Students/post-docs this year attending five major workshops students/post-docs to attend the WCRP Open Science Conference. Facilitate participation of national and regional climate experts in international climate research, analyses and assessments Training Institute for 50 particiantson the use of seasonal climate prediction for applications in Latin America, Buenos Aires Argentina, August Sponsor regional climate information analysis and model evaluation workshops CORDEX regional climate model evaluation and analysis in Africa, Asia, South and Central America,… Support climate science-policy and science-sector specific dialogues With START, UNEP, WMO and European Commission funding, to facilitate dialogue between scientists and decision makers in East and West Africa, and South Asia on issues related to climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk assessment. Education& Training

Summary WCRP Research Priorities Include; Quantify and communicate uncertainties in climate change information/knowledge; Focus on regional and interannual to seasonal, and decadal climate prediction/projection; Address information needs for adaptation planning, mitigation strategies, and assessing risks of climate variability and change Promote and enable timely, reliable, and easy to access climate information and knowledge.

WCRP Open Science Conference October 2011 Denver, Colorado, USAhttp://conference2011.wcrp-climate.org Climate Research in Service to Society

WCRP Requirements for Observations Coordinated collection, analysis and reanalysis of climate observations are essential for describing the structure and variability of the climate system. Special efforts will be required to obtain, analyse and assimilate data from the new generation of environmental satellites. In addition to the longer-term data for climate monitoring and analysis of time-dependent variations, there will be a need to collect, analyze and archive high spatial and temporal resolution data of physical variables and chemical constituents using in situ as well as remote-sensing methods. A commitment is required for the progressive, coordinated, ongoing analyses and periodic reanalyses of observations, which are necessary to incorporate lessons from new measurements and research.

WCRP Requirements for Observations, cont’d A major concern is the development and improvement of climate data records (CDRs) which can be used for studies and assessments of climate variability and change, such as for IPCC. Particular concerns for which there are activities underway include: –Continuity and homogeneity of observations, especially from space. –The need for reprocessing of records in a coordinated way and with agreement on algorithms, and comprehensive validation, evaluation and assessment of results. –The need for reanalysis to produce global gridded fields.

WCRP Support to GCOS 1.Advocate improved observations and analysis suitable for climate (satisfying the GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles that are designed to ensure continuity of record) 2.Data set development: evaluating observations and promoting their reprocessing and reanalysis into global fields. Develop new products and datasets. 3.Continue to carry out studies on mechanisms and modes of variability that have contributed to observed climate anomalies. 4.Promote improved data assimilation and analysis. 5.Provide advice on best datasets for various purposes (climatologies and time series) and their merits and limitations. 6.Help improve and promote sound data stewardship, including data archiving, management, and access.