Science Mission Directorate Overview of NASA Research in Carbon Data Fusion and Data Assimilation Carbon Fusion Workshop, May, 2006 Bill Emanuel Program Scientist, Terrestrial Ecology Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Focus Area

NASA’s Role in Earth Science 2006 NASA Strategic Plan NASA’s Mission: To pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research. Develop a balanced overall program of science, exploration, and aeronautics consistent with the redirection of the human spaceflight program to focus on exploration. Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs.

Research activities focus on providing data and information derived from remote sensing systems to answer the following science questions: How are global ecosystems changing? What changes are occurring in global land cover and land use, and what are their causes? How do ecosystems, land cover and biogeochemical cycles respond to and affect global environmental change? What are the consequences of land cover and land use change for human societies and the sustainability of ecosystems? What are the consequences of climate change and increased human activities for coastal regions? How will carbon cycle dynamics and terrestrial and marine ecosystems change in the future? Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Focus Area

U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) President’s Climate Change Research Initiative, June, Integrates the research of 13 Federal agencies. Includes the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Strategic Plan, July, Chapter 7 describes Carbon Cycle research within the CCSP. Atmospheric Composition Climate Variability and Change Global Water Cycle Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Global Carbon Cycle Ecosystems Human Contributions and Responses

Surface and Aircraft Measurements

T Reduced flux uncertainties; global carbon dynamics Funded Unfunded Global Ocean Carbon / Particle Abundance N. America’s carbon budget quantified Global Atmospheric CO 2 (OCO) Reduced flux uncertainties; coastal carbon dynamics NA Carbon Global C Cycle T = Technology development Regional carbon sources/sinks quantified for planet IPCC Effects of tropical deforestation quantified; uncertainties in tropical carbon source reduced = Field Campaign Physiology & Functional Types Goals: Global productivity and land cover change at fine resolution; biomass and carbon fluxes quantified; useful ecological forecasts and improved climate change projections Vegetation 3-D Structure, Biomass, & Disturbance T Terrestrial carbon stocks & species habitat characterized Models w/improved ecosystem functions High-Resolution Atmospheric CO 2 Sub-regional sources/sinks Integrated global analyses CH 4 sources characterized and quantified Report P Vegetation (AVHRR, MODIS) Ocean Color (SeaWiFS, MODIS) Land Cover (Landsat) LDCMLand Cover (OLI) Vegetation, Fire (AVHRR, MODIS) Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPP) Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPOESS) Models & Computing Capacity Case Studies Process Understanding Improvements: Human-Ecosystems-Climate Interactions (Model-Data Fusion, Assimilation); Global Air-Sea Flux T Partnership N. American Carbon Program Land Use Change in Amazonia Global CH 4 ; Wetlands, Flooding & Permafrost Global C Cycle Knowledge Base 2002: Global productivity and land cover resolution coarse; Large uncertainties in biomass, fluxes, disturbance, and coastal events Systematic Observations Process controls; errors in sink reduced Coastal Carbon Southern Ocean Carbon Program, Air-Sea CO 2 Flux Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Roadmap

TransCom Inverse Model Comparisons Inverse model solution indicate a net carbon sink in temperate North America. TransCom. Gurney et al Nature 415:626–630. ( )

U.S. North American Carbon Program The central objective of the U.S. North American Carbon Program is to measure and understand carbon stocks and the sources and sinks of CO 2, CH 4, and CO in North America and in adjacent ocean regions. Approaching 120 projects. Involving more than 200 investigators. About 10 major observation & experimental networks. A focus for remote sensing observations and research. Developing collaboration with Mexico & Canada.

NACP Science Plan Published in 2002 Prepared by the U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Steering Group Steven Wofsy and Robert Harriss, Co-Chairs Describes a broad science questions, goals, and a framework for a North American Carbon Program.

U.S. NACP Science Questions 1.What is the carbon balance of North America and adjacent oceans? What are the geographic patterns of fluxes of CO 2, CH 4, and CO? How is the balance changing over time? (Diagnosis) 2.What processes control the sources and sinks of CO 2, CH 4, and CO, and how do the controls change with time? (Attribution/Processes) 3.Are there potential surprises (could sources increase or sinks disappear)? (Prediction) 4.How can we enhance and manage long-lived carbon sinks ("sequestration"), and provide resources to support decision makers? (Decision support)

U.S. NACP Goals Develop quantitative scientific knowledge, robust observations, and models to determine the emissions and uptake of CO 2, CH 4, and CO, changes in carbon stocks, and the factors regulating these processes for North America and adjacent ocean basins. Develop the scientific basis to implement full carbon accounting on regional and continental scales. This is the knowledge base needed to design monitoring programs for natural and managed CO 2 sinks and emissions of CH 4. Support long-term quantitative measurements of fluxes, sources, and sinks of atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4, and develop forecasts for future trends.

Observations U.S. NACP Approach Observations & Experiments  Science Results  Estimates-Uncertainties Predictive Models Experiments Diagnostic Models Model-Data Fusion Dynamic Maps Decision Support

Multiple-Scale Observations and Experiments µm m ha 10 km 1000 km Downscaling Verification Up-scaling Prediction

NACP Data Assimilation Framework

Mid-Continent Geographic Domain USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Major Land Resource Areas summarize distributions of climatic conditions and soil characteristics across the region.

Mid-Continent Intensive Study Develop optimized sampling schemes for field and atmospheric measurements to efficiently monitor regional carbon stocks and fluxes. Use top-down approaches to provide a region-level estimate of net carbon fluxes during short periods (weeks) with an accuracy of 10% by increasing spatial and temporal coverage of atmospheric measurements and by enabling improvements in the parameterization of transport/mixing processes in the lower atmosphere. Use a variety of bottom-up techniques to provide daily to annual estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes over a region by improving process model structure and parameterization. A hierarchy of field and remote sensing observations should be used for model testing, development of data assimilation techniques, and model parameterization. Compare the top-down and bottom-up approaches and iteratively improve the independent approaches on daily to annual time scales. Produce carbon stock and flux maps at various levels of spatial and temporal detail, and compare the results of the top-down and bottom-up approaches to diagnose methods.

Climate Products (eg Silo) Obs Forward model Model-Data assimilation Data Assimilation Approaches – Savanna Systems Data MODIS NBAR LST Albedo EVI/NDVI (1km, 500m, 250m) MODIS cluster 12 Terabyte 16 processor CSIRO BRS CRCGA Ground Obs Ground & atm obs AVHRR 22 year Archive LUE, FC, PFT, structure Hyperspectral MISR Dynamics Stocks ERS-2 ATSR Fire Disturbance Grazing AMSR Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer SRTM Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission Terrain/moisture Landsat mosaic Parameters Compare LAI, fPAR, GPP, NPP

TOPS

Observations to Decision Support