National and Regional Variations in Electoral Participation in Europe: Evidence from The European Social Survey Ed Fieldhouse and Mark Tranmer Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research University of Manchester

Young people and reported Turnout (MORI, 2001)

Modelling Turnout: all voters (BES, 2001)

Further research…. Is the U.K. unusual? Falling turnout in mature democracies What factors affect turnout in European democracies? Is low turnout a similar feature of young people in Europe? Can we explain cross national differences in turnout by universal theories? Do individual, regional and country level factors make a difference?

Testing competing theories using microdata Pattie et al, 2003 (Political Studies, vol 51, ): Citizenship and Civic Engagement Rational Choice Social Capital Civic Voluntarism

The European Social Survey Methodological quality and consistency Survey data from 22 European nations Context and event data Fieldwork Autumn 2002 – Spring 2003 Weights: design weight and country (population) weight Data on-line/download at Information/documentation:

Core topics round 1 Socio-political attitudes Trust in institutions Political interest & participation Socio-political orientations Multi-level governance Values and quality of life Socio-demographic background variables

Participating countries (round 1)

From Bryson, C, Seminar on The European Social Survey: the potential for research and teaching Wednesday 22 October 2003, RSS, 12 Errol Street, London

Comparison of ESS estimate of turnout and official estimate

Reported turnout by young people (all countries)

Young people and turnout by country

Multilevel analysis Data hierarchically structured Individual Region Country Complex heterogeneity Model individual and area data simultaneously Examine how different factors can have different effects in different places (using random effects) MLWin

Variance component model v 1k is country level variance component, u 1jk is region level variance component.

Adding age group to the model

Adding in actual country level turnout (and interaction with age 18-24)

Add in covariates for rational choice, civic voluntarism and social capital (significant fixed effects) Female (+) Partner (++) Ethnic minority (-) Belong to religion (+) Citizen of country (+++) Born in country (++) Political efficacy scale (+) Personal economic sit (+) Trust in institutions (+) Social activity (+) Meets socially (-) Group membership (+) Years at address (++)? Politics on radio (+) Watches pol on tv (+) Discusses politics (+) Interest in politics (++) Party identification (+++) Party membership (++) Civic duty scale (+++) Education years (+) Student (-) Unemployed (-) Manual occ (-) Actual turnout (+++)

Variance components for alternative models.

Modelling young people

Adding actual turnout

Add in covariates for rational choice, civic voluntarism and social capital (significant fixed effects) Female (+) Partner (++) Ethnic minority (-) Belong to religion (+) Citizen of country (+++) Born in country (++) Political efficacy scale (+) Personal economic sit (+) Trust in institutions (+) Social activity (+) Meets socially (-) Group membership (+) Years at address (++) Politics on radio (+) Watches pol on tv (+) Discusses politics (+) Interest in politics (++) Party identification (+++) Party membership (++) Civic duty scale (+++) Education years (+) Student (-) Unemployed (-) Manual occ (-) Actual turnout (+++)

Add actual turnout back in

Variance components for alternative models.

Conclusions Substantial country level variation Direction of age effects constant across countries Significant variation in age effects by country Variations in turnout amongst YP partially accounted for by the overall level of turnout in the country. Support for civic voluntarism model, especially importance of civic duty and interest in politics as explanations of YP participation