NOAA National Weather Service’s Future in the Digital Age Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret) NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services & National Weather Service Director National Weather Association 31 st Annual Meeting October 16, 2006 Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret) NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services & National Weather Service Director National Weather Association 31 st Annual Meeting October 16, 2006

Presentation Overview NOAA Vision and Mission Goals NWS Services Evolution The Way Forward “A Phase of Discovery” Aviation Weather Services Modernization and Restructuring IT Consolidation Initiative Closing Thoughts NOAA Vision and Mission Goals NWS Services Evolution The Way Forward “A Phase of Discovery” Aviation Weather Services Modernization and Restructuring IT Consolidation Initiative Closing Thoughts

NOAA Vision Vision: An informed society that uses a comprehensive understanding of the role of the oceans, coasts, and atmosphere in the global ecosystem to make the best social and economic decisions. Vision: An informed society that uses a comprehensive understanding of the role of the oceans, coasts, and atmosphere in the global ecosystem to make the best social and economic decisions.

NOAA Mission Goals Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through ecosystem management approaches Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond Serve society’s needs for weather and water information To Protect Life and Property, and provide support to the Security of our Homeland Support the nation’s commerce with information for safe and efficient transportation. Provide Critical Support for NOAA’s Mission Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through ecosystem management approaches Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond Serve society’s needs for weather and water information To Protect Life and Property, and provide support to the Security of our Homeland Support the nation’s commerce with information for safe and efficient transportation. Provide Critical Support for NOAA’s Mission

NOAA Cross-Cutting Priorities Developing, valuing and sustaining a world-class workforce Integrated global environmental observations and data management Sound, reliable, state of the art research Promoting environmental literacy Exercising international leadership Developing, valuing and sustaining a world-class workforce Integrated global environmental observations and data management Sound, reliable, state of the art research Promoting environmental literacy Exercising international leadership

NOAA-Wide Integrated Services Situational Awareness & Response Situational Awareness & Response Modern Integrated Services ConOps Modern Integrated Services ConOps Public Safety, Economic Benefit, and Hazard Resilient Communities Public Safety, Economic Benefit, and Hazard Resilient Communities Dissemination Highly Trained Professional Workforce IT Assess/Verify Integrated Services Observations Tactical Decision Assistance Environmental Information Repository State of the Art Science & Technology State of the Art Science & Technology Test Beds Research to Operations Data Assimilation/ Model Guidance Education/ Outreach

NWS Services Evolution State of NOAA NWS: –Accurate forecasts and skilled workforce –Post 9/11 service demands –Integrated Environmental Information Services –Aging infrastructure –Budget Considerations We need to position ourselves for budget uncertainties and opportunities because if current trends in budget erosion continue, we face financial and operational consequences State of NOAA NWS: –Accurate forecasts and skilled workforce –Post 9/11 service demands –Integrated Environmental Information Services –Aging infrastructure –Budget Considerations We need to position ourselves for budget uncertainties and opportunities because if current trends in budget erosion continue, we face financial and operational consequences

NWS Services Evolution We need to change so … …we can do more –Within the NWS –With other parts of NOAA –With other agencies –Through more effective use of existing resources …and better –Better performance during high-impact events –Through, better research, better outreach, better training, better knowledge of impacts –On-scene incident response We need to change so … …we can do more –Within the NWS –With other parts of NOAA –With other agencies –Through more effective use of existing resources …and better –Better performance during high-impact events –Through, better research, better outreach, better training, better knowledge of impacts –On-scene incident response

NWS Services Evolution NWS 2015 Vision for Services Evolution –Provide superior, focused response for high- impact events while maintaining excellence in other important services –Strengthen partnerships with all sectors –Create capacity (more time) to support high- impact events and integrate NOAA environmental information services –Accelerate science & technology infusion –Enhance employee work life NWS 2015 Vision for Services Evolution –Provide superior, focused response for high- impact events while maintaining excellence in other important services –Strengthen partnerships with all sectors –Create capacity (more time) to support high- impact events and integrate NOAA environmental information services –Accelerate science & technology infusion –Enhance employee work life

NWS Services Evolution Goal: Maintain and improve our status as the standard for the weather enterprise by remaining relevant in a rapidly evolving digital age. –Meeting the increasing demands for services in the digital age and beyond –Applying evolving science and technology –Working even more effectively Goal: Maintain and improve our status as the standard for the weather enterprise by remaining relevant in a rapidly evolving digital age. –Meeting the increasing demands for services in the digital age and beyond –Applying evolving science and technology –Working even more effectively

The Way Forward Guiding Principles for Change We will maintain 122 Weather Forecast Offices. Employees will have a job as long as they want one and can do the job There will be no degradation of service. We will provide equitable services across the Nation. We will continue to be transparent in our planning and will involve the employee organization & constituents. We will demonstrate operability, performance, effectiveness, and efficiency before committing to changes. We will maintain 122 Weather Forecast Offices. Employees will have a job as long as they want one and can do the job There will be no degradation of service. We will provide equitable services across the Nation. We will continue to be transparent in our planning and will involve the employee organization & constituents. We will demonstrate operability, performance, effectiveness, and efficiency before committing to changes.

CONOPS Team Report –Develop and prototype Clustered-Peer CONOPS –Clustered-Peer CONOPS Provide a platform for key operational shifts Field offices operate as equals within a cluster Cluster delivers environmental information and decision support services focused on high-impact events Basic forecast suite is provided without interruption within the cluster and centers Cluster Management Team (WFOs, RFCs, National Centers) allocate their resources WFOs have evolved to the current state where they work as a team to dynamically shift workload Corporate Board agreed to pursue recommendations CONOPS Team Report –Develop and prototype Clustered-Peer CONOPS –Clustered-Peer CONOPS Provide a platform for key operational shifts Field offices operate as equals within a cluster Cluster delivers environmental information and decision support services focused on high-impact events Basic forecast suite is provided without interruption within the cluster and centers Cluster Management Team (WFOs, RFCs, National Centers) allocate their resources WFOs have evolved to the current state where they work as a team to dynamically shift workload Corporate Board agreed to pursue recommendations The Way Forward New Concept of Operations

The Way Forward Key Operational Shifts Producers of Our Forecasts Static Resource Allocation Phenomenon-Based Forecasts Product-Based Services Coordination Weather-Centric Deterministic (best forecast) Producers of Our Forecasts Static Resource Allocation Phenomenon-Based Forecasts Product-Based Services Coordination Weather-Centric Deterministic (best forecast) Customers of Our Expertise Dynamic Resource Allocation Impact-Based Forecasts Decision Support Services Collaboration Earth System Science-Based Probabilistic (uncertainty range) Customers of Our Expertise Dynamic Resource Allocation Impact-Based Forecasts Decision Support Services Collaboration Earth System Science-Based Probabilistic (uncertainty range) Current Operations Future Operations

The Way Forward Integrated High-Impact Services Definition for High-Impact Events: High-impact events are man-made or naturally occurring environmental hazards, often sudden, which can affect human health and safety, our economy and the environment. Definition for High-Impact Events: High-impact events are man-made or naturally occurring environmental hazards, often sudden, which can affect human health and safety, our economy and the environment.

The Way Forward Integrated High-Impact Services Natural hazards, e.g., –Tornadoes –Hurricanes –Floods –Droughts –Volcanic eruptions –Tsunamis Accidents –Chemical releases –Oil spills –Nuclear power plant emergencies Terrorism Space Weather Public Health Natural hazards, e.g., –Tornadoes –Hurricanes –Floods –Droughts –Volcanic eruptions –Tsunamis Accidents –Chemical releases –Oil spills –Nuclear power plant emergencies Terrorism Space Weather Public Health

The Way Forward Current and Planned Actions CONOPS Prototype Team Activities NOAA’s Boulder Laboratory with NWS –Testing AWIPS and network performance Expanded domains Enhanced collaboration Resource allocation tools Clustered-peer field prototype plan to be briefed to Corporate Board November –Field prototype expected to begin in CY 2007 –End state determined by: Complexity of plan Collective bargaining agreement requirements Systems capabilities (AWIPS) CONOPS Prototype Team Activities NOAA’s Boulder Laboratory with NWS –Testing AWIPS and network performance Expanded domains Enhanced collaboration Resource allocation tools Clustered-peer field prototype plan to be briefed to Corporate Board November –Field prototype expected to begin in CY 2007 –End state determined by: Complexity of plan Collective bargaining agreement requirements Systems capabilities (AWIPS)

The Way Forward Identifying Capabilities and Needs Issues Being Assessed in Prototype Test Key Operational Shifts Capabilities required (tools and techniques) –Communications tools –Domain size (current limitation is 120,000 grid points) –Governance of cluster Impacts (internal and external) –Customer needs met? –Effect on staff? (quality of work life, ability to perform complex tasks across boundaries) –Improved public planning and preparedness? –Increased time for training? Issues Being Assessed in Prototype Test Key Operational Shifts Capabilities required (tools and techniques) –Communications tools –Domain size (current limitation is 120,000 grid points) –Governance of cluster Impacts (internal and external) –Customer needs met? –Effect on staff? (quality of work life, ability to perform complex tasks across boundaries) –Improved public planning and preparedness? –Increased time for training?

The Way Forward Proposed Field Prototyping Locations Prototype Clusters “Great Lakes” “Pacific Northwest” “Great Plains” “Southeast Coast”

Incident Meteorologists Deployed For High-Impact Events Incident Meteorologists Deployed For High-Impact Events The Way Forward Future State

Hurricane Shelter in Welcome, NC Photo by Dave Gatley/FEMA Photo by Andrea Booher/FEMA Sandbagging a flood, St. Genevieve, MO Photo by Dave Saville/FEMA Workmen elevating A/C units previously washed away by Hurricane Floyd

The Way Forward Aviation Initiative Aviation Initiative –FAA wants enhanced services & 20 percent reduced costs –NWS Proposed Plan to FAA Aviation Initiative –FAA wants enhanced services & 20 percent reduced costs –NWS Proposed Plan to FAA

The Way Forward IT Consolidation Information Technology Consolidation –Build flexible, agile infrastructure –Centralize IT management –Free up field IT staff to focus on mission requirements Information Technology Consolidation –Build flexible, agile infrastructure –Centralize IT management –Free up field IT staff to focus on mission requirements

Closing Thoughts National Weather Service 2015 Integrated in NOAA Functional Model (CONOPS) NWS Services Evolution –Key Operational Shifts –New Clustered-Peer CONOPS The Way Forward “A Phase of Discovery” –Laboratory & Prototyping –Milestones & Metrics (measure success and failure) Customer Focus & Involvement Study, Plan, Demonstrate, Evolve National Weather Service 2015 Integrated in NOAA Functional Model (CONOPS) NWS Services Evolution –Key Operational Shifts –New Clustered-Peer CONOPS The Way Forward “A Phase of Discovery” –Laboratory & Prototyping –Milestones & Metrics (measure success and failure) Customer Focus & Involvement Study, Plan, Demonstrate, Evolve

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