1 Climate change and territorial effects on regions and local economies in Europe Stefan Greiving (TU Dortmund) ESPON Internal Seminar Liège, Belgium Nov. 17, 2010 ESPON Climate

2 Reminder: Overall methodology of the project

3 Aggregated climate change exposure Aggregated changes in climate stimuli are more severe in Scandinavia, the Alpine region and parts of South-eastern Europe. Range of values between 1.14 and 3.25 – some regions are three times as much exposed as others. This does not necessarily mean that the vulnerability of Scandinavian regions is particular high. When sensitivity and adaptive capacity come in, the picture will considerably change. The Mediterranean area is considered to be particularly vulnerable due to its sensitivity.

4 Triggered effect: river flooding Maps shows projected changes in flood hazard for 1:100 flood event till 2100 and is based on JRC data Complex patter: flood hazard does not necessarily increase due to climate change Thus, a differentated tailor- made policy response is needed High uncertanity calls for flexible no-regret strategies

5 5 Methodology Sources: Global sea level rise: Vermeer/Rahmstorff 2009 Regional adjustment: Satellite altimetry data Storm surge heights: DIVA Triggered effect: Sea level rise Regional storm surge height (100-year event) Projected global sea level rise Regional sea level rise adjustment Current mean sea level

6 Example for social sensitivity: Population changes 2005 – 2100

7 Absolute numbers (indexed)Relative share (indexed) Population above 65 years in 2100

8 Population > 65y (abs. & rel.)Exposure: Summer days Combining sensitivity and exposure

9 Mainly affected regions: Mediterranean cities, Parts of Southern Italy, Northern Iberian regions, Southern Germany, Urbanized areas in SE Europe Adaptive capacity building is needed mainly on the local level: Strengthening coping capacity Suitable urban planning, i.e. protection and extension of open spaces in inner cities New architecture Awareness building, because existing building stock is the main problem; thus individual actions are needed Impact: Population above 65y affected by heat events

10 Parts of adaptive capacity: awareness, ability and action Awareness indicators used: Computer skills Education expenditure Ability Indicators used: R&D expenditure Patent applications Road density Hospital beds Action indicators used: Government effectiveness National adaptation strategies GDP per capita Age dependence = adaptive capacity ++

11 Aggregate adaptive capacity Average of 10 indicators Adaptice capacity is low mainly in Southern and Eastern Europe These regions seems tobe less able to cope with and adapt to climate change These regions are mostly economically less competetive than other parts of Europe The additional challenge of climate change endangers territorial cohesion

12 For main adaptation objectives: Building adaptation capacity: relates directly towards a measure that builds or enhances government or societal awareness about adaptation, builds capacity to enable action. Reduction of risk and sensitivity: Actions can be undertaken to reduce the risk of damage and disruption, and reduce sensitivity of people, property, natural resources, and ecology to changed climatic conditions Increased coping capacity: during extreme or damaging events (response to extreme events). Capitalization on changed climatic conditions: some benefit might arise from any changed climatic condition. In this case an action might be undertaken to capitalize on such change. Source: Massey/ Bergsma: Assessing adaptation in 29 European Countries. Amsterdam 2008.

13 Greenhouse gas emissions / mitigation capacities Europe 2020 report`s priority Sustainable growth: combating climate change through a significant reduction of emissions and the full exploitation of the potential of new technologies in order to also strengthen EU economies' resilience to climate risks, and the capacity for disaster prevention and response Indicators used: Carbon sinks GDP Education expenditure, policies and measures R&D expenditure Low mitigation capacities mainly in Eastern Europe, but also Germany

14 “While the need for co-ordination and integration across sectors, scales and levels is growing, the capacities to respond are frequently shrinking […]. While it is generally recognised that the role of spatial planning for climate mitigation and adaptation should be strengthened, the practice is not very well developed as yet.” (PEER Report No. 2: Climate Policy Integration, Coherence and Governance, p. 60). Some recommendations: – Comprehensive strategies are needed that address mitigation and adaption together with other challenges such as demographic change (DEMIFER), resource shortages (ReRisk) and urban growth (EU-LUPA) – Climate proofing should be integrated in SEA – Concepts of resilience and no regret have to be operationalized for planning purposes – Dealing with uncertainty calls for flexible concepts which can be frequently adapted according to the results of a continuous monitoring of given vulnerability. First response to policy questions

15 Lessons learned from case studies - what regions and local communities are able to do TaskMilestones Potential of spatial planning Description Assessment of long-term consequences Assessment and appraisal of climate change impacts on the human- environmental-system fair Possible based on regional impact studies, planning has to have at hand. A strength of comprehensive planning is the traditionally integrated view on different change processes (demography, economy, environment, climate) Climate proofing Identification of interaction between land- uses and the changing climate good Such assessments can easily be integrated in the strategic environmental assessment which is obligatory for any spatial plan or program New guiding principles (such as “resilience”) suitable for the ongoing global change good The concept of resilience is almost in line with existing planning principles like decentralised concentration and could therefore easily adopted in planning practice Avoidance of non-adapted developments good This is in focus of planning which is very much about future developments. The effectiveness of actions depends partly from the existing regulatory framework (zoning instruments) Adaptation of existing spatial structures (settlements, infrastructure) poor Any adaptation of existing structures is hardly possible through regulatory planning due to the given private property rights. What is needed are incentives and good practices aiming at convincing private householders

16 TaskMilestones Potential of spatial planning Description Disaster prevention Assessment of frequency and magnitude of extreme events (exposure) poor That is clearly a task for specialised authorities like water management where spatial planning does not have any competence at hand Keeping disaster prone areas free of further development good At least conforming planning systems have regulatory zoning instruments at hand. Keeping free of areas prone to extreme events is thereby possible Differentiated decisions on land-use: Acceptable land-use types according to the given risk fair Almost possible, but not effective with regard to existing settlement structures Adaptation of existing building structures fair Almost impossible though regulatory measures due to property rights. Suitable approaches base on incentives and communication Relocation/retreat from threatened areas poor Again in conflict with property rights. Full recompensation is normally needed which fails mostly due to the lack of financial resources. Possible in areas with shrinking population where the existing building stock will be (partly) deconstructed based on planning strategies (see Eastern Germany) Lessons learned from case studies - what regions and local communities are able to do - II

17 Draft Final Report: End of February 2011 Final report: End of May 2011 Comparative study on nine EU countries aims at recommendations for strengthening the role of spatial planning in context of territorially differentiated adaptation strategies. Results are available in English: s/BMVBS/Online/2010/DL__ON212010,templateId=raw,property= publicationFile.pdf/DL_ON pdf

18 Thank you for your attention Prof. Dr.-Ing. Stefan Greiving