Measuring and Promoting Progression Glyn Parry, Young People’s Education and Skills Linda Rose, Department for Education

Format of the workshop 1. Introduction/some interesting facts (Glyn) 2. Update on the development of Key Stage 4 and Key Stage 5 destination measures (Linda) 3.Your feedback and views

“Without continual progress, such words as improvement, achievement, and success have no meaning”. Discuss! This is not a straightforward issue, and the progress of a young person is both difficult to measure and manage Benjamin Franklin captures the premium progression has for a young learner – without an apprenticeship, place at college, university, job etc., the certificates effectively just sit on the mantelpiece But his statement also reveals that progress is inextricably linked to factors such as improvement, achievement and success – it works the other way around Following a young person’s participation and attainment helps to measure how effectively they are progressing through their learning, training and employment experience

Progress requires strong foundations Young People who do not attain five GCSEs at A*-C are seven times more likely to be NEET at 17 than those who achieve this level Source: Department for Education

Attainment and progression in London Lighter = lower attainment Darker = higher attainment Darker = higher NEET Lighter = lower NEET

Stuttering progress post-16? GCE A-level examination results of year olds 2009/10 A* - A grade passes 23.8% in London V 26.9% nationally FE Level-3 enrolments down by 2% in London High drop out rate at 17 High rate of youth unemployment (% of the economically active – ILO measure) in the UK, but especially in London (up to five percentile points higher in the capital):- Source: ILO, Laborsta,

Key Stage 4 and Key Stage 5 Destination Measures 1 1 July 2011

1. Rationale for Destination Measures KS4 and KS5 Destination Measures are being developed to look at the success of schools in helping their pupils to progress on to positive post-16 destinations, helping to: Provide clear information to parents and young people about the post-16 routes taken by a school, college or training provider’s former pupils. Make schools and post-16 providers accountable for ensuring that all their pupils take qualifications that offer them the best opportunity to progress and receive the support needed to prepare for and complete that transition. Support the increased focus on disadvantaged pupils to ensure that they make a successful transition, helping to raise post-16 participation and reduce NEET. “For both primary and secondary schools, we will put greater emphasis on the progress of every child – setting out more prominently in performance tables how well pupils progress…We will introduce a measure of how young people do when they leave school.” The Importance of Teaching, 2010

2. Principles of Destination Measures In order to achieve these aims, and in line with the principles for the Performance Tables, the measures should adhere to three clear principles: Readily understandable by schools, pupils and parents. Easy for schools, post-16 providers, pupils and parents to make comparisons with other institutions. No additional bureaucracy or burdens. This will make it a more powerful tool for accountability and self improvement. Covering the whole cohort of mainstream pupils. Covering all post-16 routes. This will ensure that it helps schools and post-16 providers to focus on the progression of all students, in particular the disadvantaged and those least likely to progress without support. Outcomes measured sufficiently close to the point at which the young person left the institution that they feel that they can influence the result. Shorter time lag in feedback to schools, colleges and training providers so that they can see their changes having quick results. Try to avoid perverse incentives that could cause institution to focus disproportionately on particular groups. Simple Inclusive Fair

3. Focus of Destination Measures Development of the measures will focus on the proportion of pupils who go on to a positive destination the year after they left learning. Why focus on participation? The measures focus attention on the whole cohort and on all learning routes. It supports our key aim to increase participation in education and training post-16 for all young people as we move towards raising the participation age to 18 by 2015, and ensures that participation enables them to gain skills and qualifications which offer the best opportunity for future success. This is the measurement point closest to the point at which the young person left school, college or training and so is the point over which the provider has most influence. The time lag is shorter than for other options and means that providers receive information more rapidly about their most recent cohort and are therefore more likely to be able to make positive changes to their services to influence the measures quickly. Simple (phase one) measure of participation in education and training could be developed using improved existing data – no additional burdens.

4. The Key Stage 4 Measure What the measures might look like: School A had 90 per cent of pupils who progressed to a positive destination within one year of ending Key Stage 4. Of these pupils: 50 per cent entered further education in School Sixth Form 20 per cent entered further education in Further Education College 10 per cent entered work-based learning or an Apprenticeship 10 per cent entered employment Subject to data testing, the KS4 destination measure will be published alongside the KS4 Performance Tables. Other options we considered, but dismissed, for development of KS4 measures were: Attainment (Proportion of pupils who went on to achieve L2 or L3 qualifications at age 19) Previous data testing showed that the school’s specific contribution cannot be drawn out due to overwhelming impact of prior attainment so cannot be used in performance tables for accountability. Four year lag in getting the data to schools. Higher Education (Proportion of pupils who go on to take part in Higher Education) Fits with priority to increase academic attainment but risks incentivising schools to focus on the academically gifted at expense of others. Further away from the point at which the young person left school (time lag of up to five years) so more removed from school influence. But still a priority for the Department.

Data for KS4 Measure

4. The Key Stage 5 Measure What the measures might look like: College B had 70 per cent of students who progressed to a positive destination within one year of their learning. Of these pupils: 40 per cent entered higher education at University (5 per cent of these students went to Oxford or Cambridge University) 20 per cent continued in further education. 10 per cent entered employment Subject to data testing, the KS5 destination measure will be published alongside the KS5 Performance Tables. Challenges facing the development of the KS5 measure: Who should be included – the base cohort Availability of data – when UCAS/HESA data is available/Education Bill for NCCIS data What is a positive destination – gap years/volunteering/repeating same level of study When should we count the positive destination – snapshot or sustained engagement Uncertainty over the robustness of the data – NCCIS coverage at all ages

Data for Measure

Practitioners, what are your views? What do you anticipate are the key issues related to the practical application of the destination measures? What other ways can progress be measured? How can progression be effectively promoted and managed in a post-16 setting?