Mesoscale model support for the 2005 MDSS demonstration Paul Schultz NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division (formerly Forecast Systems Laboratory)

Domain for 2005 MDSS demonstration

Ensemble configuration Two models (WRF, MM5) Re-initialized with new radar, satellite data every hour –Surface obs, profilers, GPS vapor, ACARS … Forecasts out to 18 hours Transmitted in real time to NCAR

Temperature verification statistics Temperature (deg C) Wind speed (m/s) Dewpoint (deg C) RMSbiasRMSbiasRMSbias MM WRF Eta Table h forecast verification statistics from the 2004 MDSS demonstration conducted in Iowa. Temperature (deg C) Wind speed (m/s) Dewpoint (deg C) RMSbiasRMSbiasRMSbias MM WRF Eta Table h forecast verification statistics from the 2005 MDSS demonstration conducted in Colorado.

A closer look Figure 5. Time series of temperature forecast biases from WRF.

Case of 10 April 2005

Precipitation verification Figure 7. Three-hour precipitation forecast verification from the 2004 MDSS demonstration in Iowa. Figure 8. Three-hour precipitation forecast verification from the 2005 MDSS demonstration in Colorado.

LAPS hot start initialization eliminates precipitation spin-up in numerical weather prediction Typical spin-up (artist’s conception)

Issues Vertical resolution –Resolving shallow cold air masses –Time step impacts Surface fluxes –Implementation of HRLDAS –Assimilation of soil temperature data Initialization –Hot start errors –Detection/correction of upstream problems Funding –Future is severely threatened