Climate Change Impacts on the Hudson Art DeGaetano Professor and Assoc. Chair Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Director Northeast Regional Climate.

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Change Impacts on the Hudson Art DeGaetano Professor and Assoc. Chair Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Director Northeast Regional Climate Center

STEP 4: High-resolution regional climate projections Temp from global climate modelTemperature from downscaling

Seasonal Projections Temperature Precipitation

16% 3% 23% 31% 15% 67% 20% Regional Variation in Heavy Rain

Extreme Event Frequency

Spatial Variation of Days with Snow on Ground

Dates of Center-of-Volume River Flow

Drought SHORT MEDIUM LONG

Storms

Sea Level Rise The IPCC model-based approach local land subsidence local relative ocean height global thermal expansion meltwater

Sea Level Rise The rapid ice melt scenario replaces the model based meltwater term with sea level rise rates (43 +/- 4 in/century) observed during paleoclimate analogues

Questions?

STEP ONE: Future Emissions from Human Activities A1fi (higher) continued dependence on fossil fuels with material-intensive economy, ~970ppm by 2100 B1 (lower) shift to alternative energy sources with service & information- focused economy ~550ppm at 2100

STEP TWO: Global Climate Modeling “Backcast” to compare historical simulations with observed climate. “Forecast” to develop future projections of changes in temperature, precipitation, extreme events, etc. 3 different climate models

STEP 3: Global Temperature Change Likely range: 1.1 o C to 6.4 o C 2 o F to 11.5 o F