General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Demographic Statistics 2005 Cecilia Macintyre General Register Office for Scotland

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Overview of Presentation The work of GROS Demography Demographic trends in Scotland MYE methodology Small Area Population Estimates Project

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Work of Demography team Regular outputs Mid-year estimates Population projections for sub-national areas Small area population estimates Life tables Marital status estimates

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Current developments Small area population estimates for data zones Review of population projections systems Implementation of quality review of international migration review Wider dissemination of migration data Contribution to Census alternatives work

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Estimated population 5,078,400 at 30 June 2004

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Figure 5: Live births, Scotland, ,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , ,

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Migration 2002/3 2003/4 NHSCR migration –In54,30061,900 –Out47,30046,400 Overseas migration –In30,50036,300 –Out26,40024,600

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Projected population Population of Scotland is projected to reduce to 4.88 million by 2028 Births are projected to decline from 54,000 to 45,000 Deaths are projected to decline from 58,000 to 54,000 in 2013 and then increase

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Dissemination Routine publications published on web and SCOTSTAT announcement Annual report + vital events reference tables Quarterly returns Online data library

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Data sources for migration Proxy Indicators –NHSCR (NHS Central Register) –CHI (Community Health Index) Surveys –IPS (International Passenger Survey) Other Information –Armed Forces –Home Office (Asylum Seekers)

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Mid year estimates of population Resident population regardless of nationality Students treated at term-time address Members of HM Forces and non-UK forces stationed in Scotland

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Communal establishments CE populations recorded in Census years Removed from population projections for purposes of household projections GROS are looking to create updated sources of CE populations through collaboration with Scottish Executive and others

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Small Area population requirements Settlements Work SNS (2003) SNS (2004) Retrospective Work Postcode Level SAPEs

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Proposed Approach Produce 2002, 2003 & 2004 CC datazone SAPEs Undertake a thorough analysis of the CC SAPEs

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Proposed Approach (cont.) Investigate methods for amending the population of problem datazone areas (e.g. student areas) Review the ratio-change method adopted by ONS –Seek required data sources Obtain the various datasets required for the ratio- change method

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Further information about the Census and population estimates/projections Contact GROS Customer Services on either (0131) or scotland.gsi.gov.uk.