General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people The Changing Population of Rural Scotland Duncan Macniven Registrar General

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people What I’ll speak about Population size Components of population change Geography of rural population change Age structure Migration Households and dwellings Population projections

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Population size

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Scotland’s population since 1855

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Scotland’s population change

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Scotland’s population change watershed –Deaths exceeded births for only third year since 1855 –Migration positive (+2,300) for only fifth year since 1855 Stable natural change –Births now rising: k, k, k –Deaths falling: k, k Net migration now strongly positive – k, k

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Scotland’s population change

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Scottish Government's urban rural classification Rural : settlements with a population of less than 3,000 Accessible rural: less than 30 minute drive time to nearest settlement of 10,000 or more Remote rural: more than 30 minute drive time to nearest settlement of 10,000 or more

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Urban/rural population 2007 Population% Large urban1,998,88139 Other urban1,555,06330 Accessible small town461,3189 Remote small town186,5824 Accessible rural608,17012 Remote rural334,1866 Total5,144,200100

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 11 Population change (%)

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Components of population change

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Components of population change, BirthsDeaths Natural change Net Migration Total change SCOTLAND Large Urban Other Urban Accessible Small Towns Remote Small Towns Accessible Rural Remote Rural (rate per thousand)

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Birth and death rates, 2007 Birth rate Standardised birth rateDeath rate Standardised death rate SCOTLAND Large Urban Other Urban Accessible Small Towns Remote Small Towns Accessible Rural Remote Rural (rate per thousand)

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 15 Life expectancy at birth

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Geography of rural population change

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 17 Population change, Dumfries & Galloway

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 18 Population change, Eilean Siar and Highland (Remote Rural areas)

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 19 Population change, Orkney

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 20 Population change, Shetland

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Age structure

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 22 Population age structure 2007

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 23 Population change by age (%)

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Migration

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 25 Net migration , by age

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 26 Net migration (per thousand) , by age

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Households and dwellings

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Vacant and second homes 2007 ( % of Dwellings)

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Vacant dwellings, Dumfries& Galloway (% of all dwellings vacant, 2007) 0 to 10 to to 22 to 2 3 to 33 to 3 4 to 854 to 85 Legend 0 to to 11

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Second homes, Dumfries & Galloway (% of all dwellings, 2007) 0 to 10 to to 22 to 2 3 to 33 to 3 4 to 854 to 85 Legend 0 to to 11

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Projected change in household numbers (%)

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Projected households with children 2031

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Projected households headed by over-60s 2031

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Population projections

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Projected population change

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Projected population change, selected council areas,

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Summary Rural population 18% of total Growing much faster than Scottish average since 1997 Gaining from migration & (except remote rural) natural change Excellent (standardised) birth and death rates Life expectancy better than Scottish average Growth not just in plum areas (eg Skye) But some key areas of decline, especially Eilean Siar Age structure: accessible rural not hugely different from Scottish average but remote rural older Change in age structure since 1997: big increases in over 60s (and decreases in under 24s in remote rural) Recent migration: losing but gaining all others especially Many vacant dwellings and (remote rural) second homes Projected increases in number of households – especially headed by 60+ Projected future population change variable

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people The Changing Population of Rural Scotland Duncan Macniven Registrar General