AN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 2011 ALY-KHAN SATCHU presents to DELOITTE

GLOBAL MACRO TRENDS

23 rd February Tweet Ai Weiwei

The Translation "I didn't care about jasmine at first, but people who are scared by jasmine sent out information about how harmful jasmine is often, which makes me realize that jasmine is what scares them the most. What a jasmine!"

Mohamed Bouazizi – Tipping Agent

Gaddafi The Craziest Guy In The Room

Heightened Geopolitical Risk Lifts Crude

Crude Oil Post Bouazizi

Kenya Spent KES 250 BN 12 Months thr Feb % on Crude Imports

The Mobile – A Game Changer – Signal To Noise-Gulliver and Lilliputians

Food Price Index- All Time High

AFRICA THE BROADER CANVAS "The first quarter of 2011 has been among the most turbulent in Africa's history.“ AFDB

Statistics  2 Billion Consumers in 2050  A Billion Consumers Now  Walmart Buys Massmart for $4.4 Billion  Bharti Buys Zain for $10.7 Billion  More Families in Africa who earn more than $20,000 p.a. than in India  China-Africa trade over $100 Billion

East Africa – The Region  East Africa's economy is expected to show growth of 6.7 percent this year, from 6.2 percent in 2010  Regional GDP 2010 – Feel The Growth :  Uganda 6.3%  Tanzania 7.0%  Rwanda 6.5%  Sudan 5.9%  Burundi 3.7%  Kenya 5.6%  A market of 160 Million Consumers

Pres. Museveni Upsizes His Oil Find To 10 Bn Barrels = $4 Trillion at #Mindspeak

South Sudan Expected To Grow 20-25% GDP but currently squeezed by Bashir

 Kenya Exports Market changing  Uganda overtaken UK as Kenya’s number one trading partner  Somalia, Sudan, DRC among Kenya’s top 10 export destinations

Reading the Kenyan Economy you need to be an Economist and a Meteorologist

KENYA THE STATE OF THE NOW  Inflation surges to 12.95% from a cycle low of 3.1% in 2010  Bond Yields at 9 year highs  The Shilling at an all time low  The NSE 20 -8%

Kenya Shilling At An All Time Low

NSE 20 Index -8% in 2011

The ICT Revolution – Kenya as a Laboratory Experiment  Kenyan mobile phone subscriber numbers rose 28 percent to 25 million last year  Internet users stood at 10 million last December compared with 4 million in 2009, CCK said

Is the New Constitution a Tipping Point for Political Risk  Out of the last 4 elections we have mismanaged 3  ICC process – will it be cathartic?  The Future is not seen in the Rear View Mirror or is it?

Thank-You