GDP-by-Metropolitan Area Statistics Accelerated Release of Data for 2008 Sharon D. Panek Association of Public Data Users Online December 10, 2009

2 BEA Introduced Accelerated Statistics of GDP by Metropolitan Area ▪ Accelerated release of statistics by one year ▪ MSAs represent 90 percent of U.S. GDP ▪ Reflects BEA’s commitment to make accounts more responsive, timely, relevant and accurate ▪ Measures final goods and services and is consistent with BEA’s national and regional accounts

3 Overview of Methodology ▪ Simple and transparent ▪ Relies heavily on industry earnings data which represent 64 percent of GDP ▪ Fully integrated with other statistics prepared by BEA

4 Estimation Formula ▪ Equation for statistics: ▪ Sum of gross county product controlled to GDP-by-state statistics ▪ Chained-dollar GDP by metropolitan area computed with national deflators

5 Acceleration Formula ▪ Equation for accelerated statistics: ▪ Sum of gross county product controlled to GDP-by-state statistics

6 Evaluation Tools ▪ Internal sources  GDP by state  Earnings by place of work  Personal income by place of residence  Location quotients ▪ External sources  Standard & Poor’s CompuStat Database  Global Insight and Moody’s Economy.com  Numerous industry and local government websites

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8 Economy.Com GMP Compared to BEA GDP by Metropolitan Area, 2007 Source: September 2008 Moody’s Economy.com data release. Note: The 45 degree reference line indicates where points would be located if Economy.com GMP and BEA GDP by metropolitan area were equal. Values are shown in millions of current dollars.

9 Global Insight’s GMP Compared to BEA GDP by Metropolitan Area, 2007 Source: “GMP The Engine of America’s Growth,” January Prepared for the U.S. Conference of Mayors by Global Insight. Note: The 45 degree reference line indicates where points would be located if Global Insight GMP and BEA GDP by metropolitan area were equal. Values are shown in billions of current dollars.

10 Metropolitan Areas in Perspective ▪ New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island MSA ranked 2 nd among states and 12 th among countries 1 ▪ Current-dollar GDP for the Nation was $14.2 trillion; it was $1.8 trillion for California, the largest state 1 World Development Indicators database, World Bank, August 24, 2009.

11 Common Discussion Topics ▪ Size of the local economy ▪ Comparisons to other metropolitan areas, states, or the Nation ▪ Growth (or decline in the local economy) ▪ Industries driving a metropolitan area’s growth or decline ▪ The impact of natural disasters on a metropolitan economy

12 Ten Largest Metropolitan Areas, 2008 (Ranked by GDP by Metropolitan Area, Earnings, and Personal Income) Source: August 2009 accelerated metropolitan area personal income release which is reported for 2008 OMB metropolitan statistical area definitions. 1 Rank for each series is based on current-dollar statistics. Metropolitan Area Rank 1 GDPEarnings Personal Income New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA111 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA222 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI333 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV444 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX567 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX655 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD786 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH879 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA998 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA10 11

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15 Challenges ▪ Data sources for GDP-by-state may not be available for MSAs ▪ Correlation of earnings and output may not be strong for some capital-intensive industries ▪ State relationship of GDP to earnings may not apply to all MSAs ▪ Earnings data are not available for years prior to 2001

16 GDP by Metropolitan Area: Future Work ▪ Monitor accuracy of GDP-by- metropolitan-area statistics ▪ Further research to refine statistics, if appropriate and feasible

17 Contact Information Sharon D. Panek, Chief GDP by State Services Section Regional Product Division (202) (phone) (202) (fax)