ESPON Project 3.2. Long-term territorial scenarios FUTURE PERSPECTIVES FOR THE EUROPEAN TERRITORY, REGIONS AND CITIES Moritz LennertJacques Robert IGEAT (BRUXELLES)TERSYN (STRASBOURG)

 Demography: population ageing; immigration pressure and socio-cultural integration; impacts of ageing on regional labour markets

 Economy: accelerating globalisation, technological development, further EU enlargements, EU policies: cohesion versus global competitiveness;  Energy: increasing energy prices and emergence of a new energy paradigm;  Transport: saturation of euro-corridors, impacts of energy price on mobility and accessibility, technological innovations (fuel cells and hydrogen technology, hybrid cars);  Climate change: strong territorial impacts

 European external borders opened to immigrants?  Responding to transport demand: priority to new motorways?  The EU with 40 member states?  Rural areas without rural development policy and with liberalised CAP?  Territorial impacts of climate change in southern Europe without prevention policies?

Baseline scenario: continuation of trends, but consideration of recent changes (energy, climate, Kyoto etc.) Cohesion-oriented scenario: Strong Structural Policies; deepening of integration; freezing further EU enlargements; sustainability in the forefront Competitiveness-oriented scenario: Further liberalisation of EU policies; promotion of innovation and entrepreneurship; ambitious EU enlargements

Market forces and general evolution of European society have important impacts, compared to those of public policies The European territory will be confronted in the coming decades with a number of new challenges, independently from policy options related to cohesion or competitiveness: population ageing, new energy paradigm, climate change, accelerating globalisation, European geopolitical environment The long-term evolution of European regions (more than 20 years) may significantly differ from the medium-term evolution (up to 10/ 15 years). The present catching up processes may have changed considerably by 2030 The territorial perspectives show significant differences which have to be understood and meditated. None of them is an optimal scenario

It will not eliminate all territorial disparities and shortcomings because inertia and market forces are strong and resources are limited It has to ensure that short-term benefits do not generate long-term drawbacks and that the search of equity does not inhibit and offset real development opportunities  It is more than a compromise between the cohesion-oriented and the competitiveness-oriented territorial perspectives. It includes additional objectives and dimensions  Present policies (including those related to competitiveness and cohesion) are not sufficient. New, rather ambitious and future-oriented policies have to be developed

As policy cannot change some of the fundamental evolutions, it has to adapt to it: depopulation of some areas (« intelligent shrinking »), metropolitanisation of the knowledge economy (face-to-face)  A desirable territorial perspective is a real choice of society to which a variety of public, sectoral policies have to contribute: education, innovation, transport, CAP Main messages of the roll-back scenario Giving up public control of many aspects of economic and societal activities, means a reinforcement of the dominance of market forces in the shaping of our territories  To reach the territorial goals important public investments have to be made: generalisation of the Scandinavian model of high tax levels ?  Proposition: Enlargen the Maastricht criteria to include larger policy goals, such as spending on education and R&D, availability and access to services, use of renewables and collective transport, etc  National policies very important for territorial development