1. Conference on European Territorial Research 13-14 October 2005 Scenarios for European Spatial Development ESPON Project 3.2. Jacques ROBERT

2. Objectives ESPON 3.2 has two main objectives: Synthesize all data and information collected in the ESPON projects and other transnational research efforts and build spatialized scenarios on possible and (un)desirable futures in order to deduce policy recommendations from them. 2. Coordinate the ESPON research effort in order to develop sustainable tools allowing the creation of a research network / programme on European territorial planning.

3. Information flows in the scenario writing process Scenario Writing Future Research Information Base KTEN Model MASST Model Results of ESPON Projects Communication and Consultation European Territorial Cohesion Index

4. Submodel 1: National component Submodel 2: Regional differential component Exchange rate movements / $, national currencies Internal consumption Δ Efficiency wage (inflation and productivity increases) Exports Macroeconomic elements Interest rates Internal investments Foreign direct investments Differential shift Regional differential component Social and human capital policies Infrastructural policies Innovative policies Structural policies PAC Social capital Human capital Infrastructural level Innovative capacity Regional structural elements Capital / labour ratio Population Macroeconomic policies Territorial context Geographical position Urban structure Productive structure National component National growth - attractiveness - economic success Regional growth - attractiveness - economic success - spatial spillovers Regional equity disparities Final economic effect Public expenditure Imports Accessibility

5. The scenario writing process is composed of two phases: - a series of exploratory policy-oriented thematic scenarios (up to summer 2005) - a series of integrated scenarios (prospective and roll-back) The scenarios will be assessed as to their impact on territorial cohesion Policy recommendations will be formulated

6. Exploratory and policy-oriented thematic scenarios (Phase 1 of Project 3.2.) Didactic objective of thematic scenarios: Highlighting the territorial impacts of exogenous factors taken individually Highlighting the territorial impacts of exogenous factors taken individuallyApproach: For each theme, opposite hypotheses are chosen (relatively extreme, but not unrealistic) For each theme, opposite hypotheses are chosen (relatively extreme, but not unrealistic)

7. THEMATIC EXPLORATORY AND POLICY SCENARIOS (ROLL-FORWARD) Demography Demography Socio-cultural evolution Socio-cultural evolution Economy Economy Transport Transport Climate change Climate change Energy Energy Rural development Rural development EU enlargement EU enlargement Territorial governance Territorial governance

8. Scenario hypotheses DEMOGRAPHY Two prospective scenarios: 1. « Silver century »: population ageing and contained European immigration (trend) 2. « Open borders »: radical change in European immigration policy (policy scenario)

9. Socio-cultural evolution Two prospective scenarios: 1. « Non-mastered socio-cultural diversity » (increasing tensions between ethnic and cultural groups; increasing segregation) 2. « towards a peaceful multicultural society in Europe » (success of multiculturalism and integration policies)

10. Economy Four scenarios resulting from the combination of two policy objectives: - global economic efficiency and competitiveness - cohesion, equity in development 1. Strong competitiveness policy/weak cohesion policy 2. Weak competitiveness and weak cohesion policies 3. Strong cohesion policy/ weak competitiveness policy 3. Strong cohesion policy/ weak competitiveness policy 4. Strong competitiveness and strong cohesion policies

11. Transport Two policy scenarios: 1. « More investments in motorways » (modal shift policies have been inefficient ; long-term traffic forecasts are alarming) 2. Decoupling economic development from mobility of people and goods » (restrictions of road and air transport and implementation of the Lisbon strategy)

12. Energy Two prospective scenarios : « Europe in a context of high energy price»: strong and sustained increase in energy price, but no oil scarcity « Europe in a context of high energy price»: strong and sustained increase in energy price, but no oil scarcity « Europe after oil peaking »: peaking of oil production at world scale and oil scarcity « Europe after oil peaking »: peaking of oil production at world scale and oil scarcity

13. Rural development Two prospective scenarios: 1. « Open market » (liberalisation of international markets; reduction of tariff barriers; increasing agricultural productivity; weak rural development policy) 2. « Sustainable rurality » (strong and integrated rural development policy)

14. Climate change Two prospective scenarios: - Scenario: Repairing instead of preventing Limitation of prevention measures because of their costly and unpopular character - Scenario Anticipation of climate change through prevention measures (Policy scenario) On the basis of lessons learnt from the past decade, systematic prevention measures are implemented in a variety of fields and are supported by EU policies

15. Territorial governance Two prospective scenarios: 1. The EU level moves from a sectoral to a territorial governance approach; increasing role of regions in territorial governance 2. Mainplayers in territorial governance are again the states; alliance with municipalities; efficient control of EU policies by national governments

16. EU enlargement Competition between two objectives: - further EU enlargements; - deepening of integration - Scenario Europe as a market place Further EU enlargements (EU with approx. 40 member states); Stopping further deepening of integration; renationalisation of some policies - Scenario Europe as a temple Deepening of integration taking place at the expense of further enlargements; Territorial cohesion and sustainable development are major priorities

17. Examples of territorial impacts and policy messages Scenario on population ageing Silver century: Territorial impacts: Retirement in areas with good access to services (health, culture) and with high security (lower crime rates); Retirement in areas with good access to services (health, culture) and with high security (lower crime rates); Growing spatial differentiation by generation: concentration of retired people in rural areas; concentration of active population in towns and metropolitan areas; Growing spatial differentiation by generation: concentration of retired people in rural areas; concentration of active population in towns and metropolitan areas;

18. Policy messages: Need to elaborate solutions to the growing demand for specific services for aged people both in cities and in a number of rural areas; Need to elaborate solutions to the growing demand for specific services for aged people both in cities and in a number of rural areas; Need to increase the education level of young generations, in particular of the less qualified (increasing demand for qualified people in replacement of retired people); Need to increase the education level of young generations, in particular of the less qualified (increasing demand for qualified people in replacement of retired people); Need to increase workforce participation (women, unemployed); Need to increase workforce participation (women, unemployed); Need to increase labour productivity Need to increase labour productivity

19. Scenario: Non-mastered integration Territorial impacts: Increasing social segregation and insecurity in cities; Increasing social segregation and insecurity in cities; The better offs leave the large cities as residential location and commute by private cars The better offs leave the large cities as residential location and commute by private cars Increasing degradation of facilities and housing in poor urban areas; Increasing degradation of facilities and housing in poor urban areas; Development of gated communities near large cities and in tourist areas. Development of gated communities near large cities and in tourist areas. Policy messages: Pro-active immigration policy without strong integration policy is counterproductive, not only economically and socially, but also in territorial terms. It works against sustainable spatial development Pro-active immigration policy without strong integration policy is counterproductive, not only economically and socially, but also in territorial terms. It works against sustainable spatial development

20. Energy scenarios Territorial impacts: - Before oil production peaking: Move of population towards southern and coastal regions (climate) Move of population towards southern and coastal regions (climate) Reduction of mobility by car (more compact cities) Reduction of mobility by car (more compact cities) Reorganisation of production/consumption systems at intermediate scale (reduction of transport costs) Reorganisation of production/consumption systems at intermediate scale (reduction of transport costs) Competition in the use of agricultural land between food and energy production (biofuels); Competition in the use of agricultural land between food and energy production (biofuels); Impacts of wind energy facilities on landscapes Impacts of wind energy facilities on landscapes - After oil production peaking: Decreasing attractiveness of large cities (economic and social problems) Decreasing attractiveness of large cities (economic and social problems) Move of new unemployed towards rural areas (subsistence) Move of new unemployed towards rural areas (subsistence)

21. Policy messages: Increasing oil price makes investments profitable (further oil exploration, alternative energy sources, energy savings…); Increasing oil price makes investments profitable (further oil exploration, alternative energy sources, energy savings…); The probability of conflicting policy objectives is high (for example: nuclear energy/increasing safety; wind energy/landscape protection); The probability of conflicting policy objectives is high (for example: nuclear energy/increasing safety; wind energy/landscape protection); The probability of oil production peaking is 100% sure; uncertainty only about the date; The probability of oil production peaking is 100% sure; uncertainty only about the date; Alternative energy sources and energy savings should become a strong priority of public policies Alternative energy sources and energy savings should become a strong priority of public policies

22. Climate change Scenario Repairing instead of preventing Territorial impacts: Increasing disparities between northern and southern regions (agriculture, tourism); Increasing disparities between northern and southern regions (agriculture, tourism); Devitalisation of rural areas in southern Europe (declining agricultural production, depopulation, deterioration of landscapes and forests); Devitalisation of rural areas in southern Europe (declining agricultural production, depopulation, deterioration of landscapes and forests); Stronger pressure on rural areas of northern Europe (agriculture, tourism); Stronger pressure on rural areas of northern Europe (agriculture, tourism); Changes in migration flows between north and south; Changes in migration flows between north and south; Deterioration of assets and settlements in areas prone to floods Deterioration of assets and settlements in areas prone to floods Policy messages: The absence of prevention measures in a context of accelerating climate change is likely to generate significant costs in the long range which will be higher than the costs of prevention measures The absence of prevention measures in a context of accelerating climate change is likely to generate significant costs in the long range which will be higher than the costs of prevention measures

23. Basic features: Multi-thematic scenarios, using the scenario bases and parts of the thematic scenarios as well as further foresight investigations Basic features: Multi-thematic scenarios, using the scenario bases and parts of the thematic scenarios as well as further foresight investigations Common background: all integrated scenarios have a common background, considered as unavoidable in the period 2005-2030: Common background: all integrated scenarios have a common background, considered as unavoidable in the period 2005-2030: - Population ageing - Accelerating globalisation - Increasing energy price and changing energy paradigm - Growing negative impacts of climate change Second phase: Integrated scenarios

24. Differentiation between the integrated scenarios: Differentiation between the integrated scenarios: Differentiation results from different hypotheses concerning a number of specific policies related to alternative (or joint) priorities (cohesion, competitiveness, integration etc.) Principles of elaboration Principles of elaboration - The integrated scenarios are qualitative scenarios supported by a number of quantitative models and projections (used for instance for quantifying indicators) - The qualitative scenarios will produce spatially differentiated results and information going farther than model outputs and projections, both in terms of themes considered and of territorial impacts

25. Baseline Scenario Basic hypotheses Basic hypotheses Continuation of trends and no major changes in policies applied (but including recent policies, such as the enforcement of the Kyoto Agreement)

26. Demography : Demography : - Fertility down and mortality down => population ageing - Total European population stable (+ enlargement) - Increasing, but globally controlled external migration Economy : Economy : - constant, but modest economic growth - slowly increasing total activity rate - slowly growing R&D expenditure, but constant technological gap to USA - decreasing public expenditure - decreasing public expenditure

27. Energy : Energy : - steady increase of energy prices - consumption stable/decreasing - increase of the use of renewables Transport : Transport : - continued growth of all traffic categories, but curbed down by energy price, energy saving measures and Kyoto Agreement, with possible modal shift - constant increase of infrastructure endowment

28. Rural Development Rural Development - further liberalisation of international trade - reduction of CAP budget - increased industrialisation of agricultural production - increased industrialisation of agricultural production - further diversification of functions of rural areas - strong dualisation of rural areas, however attenuated by the production of biofuels

29. Socio-cultural sector Socio-cultural sector - increasing polarisation between socio-cultural groups - growing socio-cultural (ethnic, religious, and social) tensions Governance : Governance : - increasing cooperation between cross-border regions - increase in multi-level and cross-sectoral approaches, but limited to specific programmes (rural development); - maintain of competition and incoherence between policies devoted to innovation / competitiveness and others devoted to cohesion

30. Climate change : Climate change : - Moderate overall climate change until 2030 (+1°) - Increase of extreme local events - Constant emission levels - Few (too little) structural adaptation measures Enlargement : Enlargement : - by 2008 Bulgaria & Romania - by 2020 Western Balkans - by 2030 Turkey - continued combination of deepening and widening enlargement of Eurozone

31. Integrated scenario Competitive Europe through liberalisation Basic hypotheses: Basic hypotheses: - In-depth revision of public interventions, in particular at EU level; - General reduction of EU budget; targeting of EU interventions towards R&D and education, ICT, strategic external accessibility at the expense of CAP and Structural Policies

32. Demography : Demography : - increase in selective (economic sectors & destination) immigration - abolishment of constraints to internal migration - increase in retirement age - encouraging fertility rate through fiscal incentives Socio-cultural sector : Socio-cultural sector : - reactive social problem management in large cities - increase of surveillance and security systems

33. Economy : Economy : - reduction of total public expenditure - further privatisation and liberalization of public services - priority of public expenditures to R&D, education, ICT and strategic external accessibility (ICT and transport) - more and easily accessible venture capital - flexibilisation of labour markets Energy : Energy : - realisation of TEN – E: investments in infrastructure according to market demand - priority to alternative (non-based on oil and gas), large- scale energy production for metropolitan areas

34. Transport : Transport : - realisation of TEN-T: investments in infrastructure according to market demand - priority to links between metropolitan areas Rural Development : Rural Development : - rapid and radical liberalisation of CAP (reduction of tariffs, budget and export subsidies) - reduction of rural development policy - rapid industrialisation of agricultural production

35. Governance : Governance : - abolishing barriers to cross-border cooperation - less public intervention - reinforcement of the Open Method of Coordination - increasing role of private sector in decision making - strengthening of the third pillar (foreign policy, justice, security,...) of the EU policies Climate Change : Climate Change : - mitigation measures based on flexible schemes & stimulation of alternative technologies. - adaptation measures only where cost efficient

36. Enlargement : Enlargement : - Continuing enlargement to widen the market: - Romania, Bulgaria 2008 - Western Balkan 2015 - Turkey 2020, possibly Ukraine - Strengthening of the neighbourhood policy (Maghreb, Russia etc.)

37. Integrated scenario Socio-economically and territorially cohesive Europe Basic hypotheses: Basic hypotheses: - Strong EU cohesion policy - Structural policies integrate competitiveness objectives

38. Demography : Demography : - restrictive external migration policies - more flexible retirement ages - encouraging fertility rates (=> encourage better balance of population structure) - more flexible arrangements for child care Economy : Economy : - maintaining importance of EU budget - reinforcement and strong focus of structural funds on weakest regions - further harmonization of taxation and social security systems, as far as non detrimental to the competitiveness of less developed countries :

39. Socio-cultural : Socio-cultural : - promotion of regional and European identities - integration of marginal groups (ex: gypsies, etc) in peripheral areas - proactive socio-cultural integration policies - increased fiscal and/or social investment in quality of life issues (health, personal care, local environment, etc...) Energy : Energy : - realisation of TEN-E - promotion of decentralised energy production (in particular renewables)

40. Transport : Transport : - development of TEN-T with priority to peripheral regions at different scales - support to transport services in rural and less developed regions Governance : Governance : - active multi-level territorial governance, in particular in areas supported by structural funds - strong role of public actors in territorial governance - stronger role for the European Commission

41. Rural Development : Rural Development : - minor CAP reforms, but shift from pillar 1 to pillar 2. Priority to less developed rural regions in the field of direct payments to farmers (pillar 1) - priority to environmental and animal health criteria; - slow industrialisation and moderate diversification of agricultural production, promotion of quality products - active policy for diversification of rural areas, including SMEs, tourism, residential functions etc.

42. Climate Change : Climate Change : - strict mitigation measures (taxes, road pricing as far as non detrimental to peripheral regions) - wide range of adaptation measures (EU hazard funds, large investments) Enlargement : Enlargement : - break on further enlargement (except Bulgaria & Romania, but will enter later than foreseen) - only lip service to neighbourhood policy

43. Hypotheses for the desirableroll-back scenario: Two possibilities: - Starting from an ideal image of the European territory and investigating the possibilities of achieving it through policies; - or starting from a set of policies combining cohesion and competitiveness and investigating its impacts on the territory until the final image looks desirable