Will 2011 be the last Census of its kind in England and Wales? Roma Chappell, Programme Director Beyond 2011 Office for National Statistics, July 2011

Drivers for change Change in population Mobile populations / migration Increased and complex user demand Frequency, accuracy, depth of information Traditional Census challenges Non-response and cost New opportunities Technology and data availability

Context The recommendation of the 2008 Treasury Select Committee on Counting the Population: We recommend that the Statistics Authority set strategic objectives to ensure that the data gathered throughout the UK can be used to produce annual population statistics that are of a quality that will enable the 2011 Census to be the last census in the UK where the population is counted through the collection of census forms.

What has happened since then? UK Statistics Authority set up Beyond 2011 project The Spending Review reinforced the need for both: The 2011 Census to go ahead A programme to look at the feasibility of alternatives to the traditional Census

Beyond 2011 aims to … Develop options to produce Census-type statistics Meet user needs Appropriate quality/ fit for purpose Reduce cost Public acceptability Acceptable level of risk Population, housing and socio-demographic statistics Make recommendations by September 2014 Has potential to be transformational

How to collect the data ….. Administrative data model –Registers and administrative sources Continuous data collection –Rolling census / household surveys/ commercial Variations on snapshot approaches –Short form Census and other sources Hybrid options –Administrative sources with surveys/sources Benchmark against the traditional Census

International context Source: United Nations e.g. Netherlands e.g. France

Netherlands experience Registers and administrative sources -access guaranteed for statistical purposes -must not collect data if data of appropriate quality exists elsewhere -on relevant admin sources boards re: changes Overcame public resistance -Unique statistical identifier avoids disclosure of personal details -No big brother database - satellite system Scope and quality of information -Accepted loss in breadth and quality -Assessment system on quality of administrative sources -Web data collection system Report on international approaches (Summer 2011) Great interest internationally in UK situation

Recent progress Taken the 2011 Census Data extracts taken at or close to Census Day National Address Gazetteer established Progressing Access to Key Administrative Data Analysis of Administrative Data Sources Conducting Small Scale Commercial Data Pilot Learning from Experts - Netherlands, Academic & Commercial Sectors Set up formal programme & links to Major Projects Authority

User consultation Consult users starting in the autumn with discussion of needs Identify priorities key legal and policy requirements Define scope Breadth, quality and frequency

The 2011 user need - Case study 1 Local Councils Local structure and housing plans Local economic assessments Service planning Denominators for calculating rates Deprivation analyses and area profiling Population statistics have been supplied at varying levels of geography –And with national comparability But do these needs continue

The 2011 user need – case study 2 Commercial sector Network & investment planning Size and affluence of population Worker / resident ratio Ethnicity, car availability Very small geographic levels, demand partly met by others

The user need – case study 3 Charities/Other organisations Carers UK Small area Census micro-data sample Availability and need for carers by age, sex and ethnicity Policy recommendations Practical - more responsive services Needed at small geographic levels

Using administrative data for statistical purposes Statistical work to test the feasibility of using aggregate data

Map comparing DWP Customer Information System population counts with ONS estimates of population for Local Authorities in England and Wales.

Map comparing Patient Register population counts with ONS estimates of population for Local Authorities in England and Wales.

Map comparing DWP Customer Information System population counts with Patient Register counts of population for Local Authorities in England and Wales.

The thinking behind integrating sources

National Address Gazetteer Good relations established with GeoPlace Building in Census address improvements Joint work programme being established Assessing initial version using pilot areas Issues: Improvements in quality, initially and over time Communal establishments Impetus needs to continue

Sharing of Government Data Collect Once, Use/Reuse many times ONS has access to some Government data for statistical purposes Can use powers under the Statistics Act to get access but time consuming for everyone Data sharing orders for ONS to access the School Census (Wales) and Customer Information System

Working with partners ESRC Commissioned review of rolling census Sharing of data for research purposes Technical expertise and innovative designs Data matching, statistical modelling, spatial analyses, quality, disclosure control, public acceptability, stakeholder engagement Commercial Sector Case studies exploring potential for specific data items to meet user needs

Will 2011 be the last Census of its kind in E&W? Opportunity for change Evidence based recommendations will be made in 2014 Research feasibility of options and learn from international experience Open consultations Access to data Public acceptability Economic climate

Questions and comments