1. JOINT UN-ECE/EUROSTAT MEETING ON POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES
GENEVA, 7-9 JULY 2010
BEYOND 2011: BUILDING A UK POPULATION SYSTEM FOR THE FUTURE
IAN WHITE, Office for National Statistics,
UNITED KINGDOM

2. UK STATISTICAL OFFICES
England and Wales
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Scotland
General Register Office for
Scotland (GROS)
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
GROS, Edinburgh

3. Population statistics since 1801
John Rickman, first census taker in 1801

4. Population statistics since 1801
Current data on the population
Counts
sex, age, marital status, etc
Flows
births, deaths, gross migration
Structures
households, families
Characteristics
ethnicity, economic activity, health, etc
Geography
NUTS 0, NUTS 1 ……… LAU 2
plus Output Areas
John Rickman, first census taker in 1801

5. Components of population change, UK mid-1998 to mid-2008

6. Alternative approaches
Traditional field enumeration
Self-completion questionnaire - UK, Ireland
Internet completion - Slovakia, Canada, UK
Interviewer questionnaire - Albania, Greece, Romania
Fully register-based Census - Austria, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden
Combined (any mix of field enumeration, surveys, registers) – Italy, Estonia, Germany, Spain, Switzerland
Rolling Census - France
Long-form/short form - USA

7. Beyond 2011 Project High level aims
Feasibility of using integrated data sources
Alternative data sources

8. Beyond 2011 Work programme

9. Risks and issues Undermine response to the 2011 Census
No population register
Data quality
Maintenance
Public attitudes
Cross-government support
Funding

10. Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources
Census
Well established
Rich data
Flexible
Small populations
Accurate
Checkable
A known quantity
But
Snapshot in time
Infrequent
Expensive
Burdensome
Dependent on public response

11. Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources
Surveys
Rich data
Reactive
Low cost
Frequent
But
Sample only
Estimates
Still some burden
Declining response rates

12. Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources
Administrative registers
Minimal cost
Less burdensome
Continuous
High granularity
But
Non statistical
Variable coverage
Variable quality
Not all census topics covered
Inflexible
Non-comparable
No control
Legal issues

13. Data models and potential options
The Census provides a population spine

14. Data models and potential options
The Census provides a population spine
Administrative data is used for population estimates

15. Data models and potential options
The Census provides a population spine
Administrative data is used for population estimates
A survey or rolling census is used

16. Conclusions Early days Options to be reviewed and assessed
No decision on traditional 2021 Census yet
Strong requirement for a culture change

17. Culture change
Nous ne fournissons pas l'information, nous la rassemblons seulement !

18. Culture change Thank you
Nous ne fournissons pas l'information, nous la rassemblons seulement !