From Iran to Morocco Development Challenges in the Middle East and North Africa Qaiser Khan, Senior Economist, The World Bank Presented at Colby College April 21, 2003

Middle East & North Africa Region Djibouti

0 100,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, Year Population Population of the Middle East and North Africa,

Population Growth

MENA Per Capita GDP, ,956 19,112 16,596 12,825 8,884 7,300 6,939 3,609 2,051 1,943 1,648 1,572 1,363 1,253 1,224 1, ,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000 OECD UAE Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Saudi Arabia Oman Lebanon Tunisia Iran Algeria Jordan Palestine Egypt Morocco Syria Djibouti Yemen Per Capita GDP in US$

Population living on less than $1 a day Source; WDI, 2000/2001

Source: WDI, 2000/2001 Population living on less than $2 a day

Projected Annual Growth in Real Per Capita GDP by Region, Source: Economic Policy and Prospects group, World Bank, Nov 2001

Public Social Spending (% GDP) *Includes food subsidies, cash and in-kind transfers, public works, public pension, and housing Source: Various World Bank reports and recent Social Safety Net Updates ( ) CountrySP*HealthEducationTotal SP spending as % share of Total spending Algeria Egypt Iran Jordan Lebanon Morocco Tunisia Yemen

Unemployment Rates by Region % OECDSSASAMENALACECAEAP Source: World Bank

Policy Advice Borrowing countries Beneficiaries Private sector Foundations NGOs Civil society Loans Credits Grants Operational Analysis Case Studies Discussion Shared Experiences Conferences Training Bilateral Aid Own Resources Research Analysis Financing Role of the World Bank

Role of the State in the Economy in MENA  In most OECD countries the state plays a limited role in the economy outside the social sectors  In MENA the state plays a major role (except Lebanon and possibly Tunisia and Morocco) and even in many countries where there is a large private sector – this has developed as a result of state favors as ruling groups distribute favors among supporters.  The state led economy brought many early positives to the region but inefficiency has made them a burden.  Apart from efficiency the state has focused on large capital intensive operations rather than the job creating small and medium enterprise with resulting high unemployment.  The challenges is reducing the role of the direct and indirect role of the state in the economy and let a more dynamic private sector develop and create jobs.

Types of Economies in MENA  Low income countries under stress (Djibouti and Yemen)  Middle Income Countries (e.g. Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, West Bank & Gaza, Syria, Tunisia)  High Income Capital surplus economies (Bahrain, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE)  The Bank operates in all of them with the exception of Libya

Trends in Infant Mortality, 1970 to 1999 (per 1,000 live births) Source: World Development Indicators

Trends in Life Expectancy (years of life) Source: World Development Indicators

Infant Mortality Rates, 1999 Deaths per 1000 live births

Global Trends in Infant Mortality

Life Expectancy at Birth, 1999

Renewable Water Resources per Capita, by Region Source: World Bank

Mother’s Education and Infant Mortality  Children of educated mothers are less likely to die

Ratio of Girls to Boys in Primary & Secondary Education Source: UNESCO – World Bank SIMA MDG-MENA Website

MENA Youth Illiteracy Rates (% aged 15-24)

MENA Adult Illiteracy Rates (% aged 15 & above, 1998)

Female Genital Cutting Source: Yemen Demographic & MCH survey 1997; Egypt Demographic & Health Survey 1995; Djibouti MOH report for USAID FGC Symposium

Regional HIV/AIDS Statistics and Features, End of 1999 * The proportion of adults (15 to 49 years of age) living with HIV/AIDS in 1999 ** Hetero: heterosexual transmission – IDU: transmission through injecting drug use – MSM: sexual transmission among men who have sex with men

Reported AIDS cases per 100,000 in selected countries in the MENA Region, with East African comparisons

New HIV Infections in MENA

HIV Epidemic Levels in the MENA Region Type 1: Extensive testing, consistently low rates, but no consistent, systematic testing (or reporting) of high-risk groups  Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Iraq Type 2: Accumulating levels of infection; gradual and slow; some rapid increase in identified high-risk groups  Iran, Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait Type 3: Very poor levels of information, apparently growing epidemic, probably concentrated in high-risk groups  Libya, Algeria, Yemen Type 4: High levels of HIV in general population, although solid epidemiological data are lacking  Djibouti, Sudan Source: OVERVIEW OF THE HIV/AIDS SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST and NORTH AFRICA REGION

MENA Military vs. Health Expenditures as a Share of GDP, 1999