Overview of Split Sentencing Research October 25, 2006 Mark Rubin

Presentations given to subcommittee Exploring the Relationship between Split Sentences and Probation Recidivism in Maine - July 27, 2006 Who gets a Split Sentence in Maine? - August 2, 2006 Who is getting revoked on probation? - September 21, 2006

Study Parameters/Methodology Examined 2004 and 2005 populations of individuals entering probation via : –Split Sentence (spent some time in jail or prison just before entering probation –Straight Probation (received a sentence of probation without any jail or prison time

Exploring the relationship between sentence type, risk, recidivism, and revocations Examined the following variables in the analysis: –Risk Level (LSI-R scores) –Crime type (MEJIS index and Class) –Region –Jail/Prison split –Number of Priors –Demographic variables (gender, age, education, race,et al.) –Criminogenic factors, including criminal histories (number of priors) –Shock Sentence –Probation revocations by type of offense (new crime vs. technical) –Revocations by risk level –Revocation information by sentence type

Who gets a Split Sentence?

Twice as many split sentenced offenders entered probation in 2004 and 2005 as those with a straight probation sentence

The likelihood of a split sentence correlates with LSI Rating LSI RatingStraight ProbationSplit Sentence Administrative 44.9%55.1% Moderate 35.8%64.2% High/Maximum 20.6%79.4%

Split sentences are the majority of sentences whether the crime is a Felony or a Misdemeanor Split SentenceStraight Probation Felony Administrative71.7%28.3% Moderate84.5%15.5% High/Maximum92.2%7.8% Total83.7%16.3% Misdemeanor Administrative48.2%51.8% Moderate52.9%47.1% High/Maximum55.3%44.7% Total52.0%48.0%

There appear to be regional differences in sentencing practices Straight ProbationSplit Sentence Region 1 Administrative51.4%48.6% Moderate40.6%59.4% High/Maximum26.1%73.9% Total40.8%59.2% Region 2 Administrative48.2%51.8% Moderate44.8%55.2% High/Maximum20.3%79.7% Total43.0%57.0% Region 3 Administrative43.7%56.3% Moderate31.4%68.6% High/Maximum12.0%88.0% Total33.2%66.8% Region 4 Administrative36.4%63.6% Moderate27.8%72.2% High/Maximum18.5%81.5% Total28.5%71.5%

Most offenders receive a split sentence of less than 45 days Risk Level Less than 45 days days More than 270 days Administrative73.0%19.4%7.6% Moderate59.9%28.3%11.8% High/Maximum27.7%33.6%38.7% Total58.3%27.4%14.3%

Offense types by LSI

Exploring the Relationship between Split Sentences and Probation Recidivism

Sentence TypeRecidivism Rate Split Sentence30.4% Straight Probation20.5% Overall26.9% *=Statistically significant difference between recidivism rates Split Sentenced probationers have higher recidivism rates than probationers receiving a straight sentence

The data suggests first time/one time offenders may have worse outcomes when receiving a split sentence versus straight probation Number of PriorsStraight Probation R.R.Split Sentence R.R. 0-1*17.7%27.4% %30.8% More than 435.7%42.7% * No statistical difference between recidivism rates, due in part to small samples

Lower risk offenders appear to have statistically higher recidivism rates when receiving a split sentence LSI Rating (includes overrides) Straight Probation Recidivism Rate Split Sentence Recidivism Rate Administrative*10.5%15.3% Moderate*21.6%31.0% High33.3%43.3% Maximum100.0%53.8% *=Statistically significant difference between recidivism rates

Offenders convicted of certain crimes appear to have statistically higher recidivism rates when receiving a split sentence Crime (from MEJIS Index)Straight Probation R.R.Split Sentence R.R. Assault/Threatening*21.7%30.8% Burglary37.1%44.0% Drugs*19.9%29.6% OUI19.4%18.4% Sex offenses*13.5%27.0% Theft*21.3%36.5% Traffic Criminal*6.5%29.8% *=Statistically significant difference between recidivism rates

Recidivism rates are higher for shock sentences than straight probation, especially after 30 days. Sentence TypeRecidivism Rates Straight Probation20.5% Split - 7 and less27.9% Split days21.0% Split % Split % Split % Split of 90+ days34.8%

Concluding Thoughts Split Sentence probationers appear to have higher recidivism rates than straight probationers even after accounting for specific characteristics. However, sentencing practices are at best weakly related to a recidivist outcome. Other factors play a role, such as AFA, Priors, Current Age, Education, Married. It appears that split sentencing has a more profound impact on lower risk offenders as to whether they recidivate.

Who is getting revoked?

Revocations rise dramatically as risk levels rise LSI Rating (includes overrides)Revocation Rate Administrative14.4% Moderate36.4% High56.0% Maximum82.4% Total33.6%

The higher the risk level of the offender the more likely s/he is to be revoked for a technical violation LSI Rating (includes overrides) Revoked for a new crime Revoked for a technical violation Administrative61.2%38.8% Moderate48.7%51.3% High43.7%56.3% Maximum29.0%71.0% Total48.5%51.5%

Split sentenced probationers have higher revocation rates Sentence TypeRevocation Rate Straight Probation27.3% Split Sentence39.7% - Split Prison43.8% - Split Jail39.0% Total35.3%

Technical violations are the most common type of revocation violation regardless of sentence type Sentence TypeNew CrimeTechnical S.S. - Prison47.3%52.7% S.S. - Jail49.8%50.2% Straight Probation47.8%52.2% Total48.9%51.1%

Take away points on revocations Half of the revocations are for technical violations Administrative cases are 50% less likely to be revoked than moderate cases Split Sentences have higher revocation rates than straight probation cases