GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle February 2011, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland Dr Carolin Richter, Director, Global Climate Observing System Secretariat

The Composition and Scope of the Main Global Observing Systems SYSTEMSOCEANATMOSPHERELAND GEOSS GOOS GCOS GTOS WIGOS (GOS AND GAW)

The goal of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) is to provide comprehensive information on the total climate system, involving a multidisciplinary range of physical, chemical and biological properties and atmospheric, oceanic, hydrologic, cryospheric and terrestrial processes. (Annex A to 1992 and 1998 WMO-IOC-UNEP-ICSU MOU)

The Emergence of Human-Induced Climate Change as a Global Science and Policy Issue UNCHE 1972 UNGA 1961 GARP 1967 WWW 1967 GCOS 1991 WCRP WCP 1979 IPCC 1988 UNFCCC 1992 WCED 1987 WCC Copen- hagen 2009 WCC Science Computers Space Assessment Research Observation Policy WCC United Nations General Assembly UN Conference on the Human Environment Global Atmospheric Research Programme First World Climate Conference World Climate Programme World Climate Research Programme World Commission on Environment and Development Second / Third World Climate Conference UN Framework Convention on Climate Change World Weather Watch Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Global Climate Observing System

Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Climate- sensitive Sectors Prediction & Information IPCC UNFCCC AdaptationMitigation World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Interface GCOS as building block for a Global Framework for Climate Services

The GCOS Mission Observations made in the past have unequivocally demonstrated that the climate system is warming. Climate observation must be enhanced and continued into the future to enable users to:  Detect further climate change and determine its causes  Model and predict the climate system  Assess impacts of climate variability and change  Monitor the effectiveness of policies for mitigating climate change  Support adaptation to climate change  Develop climate information services  Promote sustainable national economic development  Meet other requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other international conventions and agreements

Continuous Improvement and Assessment Cycle GCOS – an all domain system

What needs to be measured ? GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)  Priority list of variables to be observed systematically  Initiated in 1995 in The GCOS Plan, then called «principal observations»  Submitted first time 1998 in 1st Adequacy Report to the UNFCCC, Buenos Aires  Global observations feasible (practical, cost-effective)  High impact on needs of UNFCCC, climate change assessments (IPCC)  Term « ECV » promoted in 2003, 2 nd Adequacy Report to the UNFCCC Global observations feasible (practical, cost-effective) High impact on needs of UNFCCC, climate research (WCRP), climate change assessments (IPCC)

What needs to be measured ? GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) l Atmospheric Surface – Air temperature, Precipitation, Pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour Upper Air – Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Temperature, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties Composition – Carbon dioxide, Methane and other long-lived greenhouse gases (N2O, CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, SF6 and PFCs), Ozone and Aerosol, supported by their precursors (NO2, SO2, HCHO and CO). l Oceanic Surface – Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Surface Current, Ocean colour, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Phytoplankton. Sub-surface:Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Oxygen, Tracers. l Terrestrial River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lakes, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Ice sheets, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Above ground biomass, Soil carbon, Fire disturbance, Soil moisture. Blue/bold = largely space-based red = new in 2010 plan

What needs to be measured ? How to do it ? Implementation Plan up-date in August 2010

What needs to be measured ? How to do it ? Climate Monitoring Principles Guidelines for Datasets and Products Satellite Supplement up-date in January 2011  In-situ data supplement to the Implementation Plan needed.

Workshop to look at gaps in observations and at gaps in basic science, Sydney, Australia, October 2007  ERB  Precip  Watervapour Workshop on Space based Architecture for Climate in January 2011

By whom / by which means ?  “network owners”, i.e.,  National Meteorological Services  National Hydrological Services  Research organizations  Space agencies  Marine / coastal agencies… How to improve the system ?  Promote the actions in the GCOS Implementation Plan  Operating a cooperation mechanism  Develop Regional Action Plans  Advocating national coordination

Where are we now ? Where can you get your data ? (acts as data access service) ECV WIKIs (GCOS Secretariat, ESA CCI, GOSIC)

Where are we now ? Progress Report Progress Report (?) Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 1998 Second Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 2003 Third Report on the Adequacy, (?)

Where are we now ? Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 1998 Second Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 2003 Implementation Plan 2004 and up-date in 2010 Progress Report in support of the UNFCCC GCOS findings support and contribute also to IPCC, WCRP and Global Framework for Climate Services Observations for adaptation and impacts

Where are we now ? Demonstrate the socio-economic values of ECVs How good is the information which is available to you ? Is there any information missing ? What is needed to provide you with adequate information ?

Socio-economic values of climate predictions and projections Logistics: scheduling of activities Management of quality and quantity; Protective and regulatory measures Long-term planning for implementing policies Strategic thinking about future trends and scenarios Choose & decide later Look ahead& Make plans Set a future trend 6 months – 5 years > 20 yrs Climate change Sub-seasonal Intra-Seasonal MJO (30-90 days) up to 6 months Seasonal, Inter- annual (ENSO, TBO, Monsoon) 6 months – 5 yrs Decadal 10 yrs Inter-Decadal (10-20 yrs) Multi-Decadal (> 20 yrs) (PDO,AMO,MOC) 2050 and beyond = Climate Change (Emission Scenarios) Act now Agriculture and Farming FisheriesSoilForestryEnergyindustryHealthBiological diversity / Ecosystems Water regime, coastal and marine protection Trade and industry Financialservicesindustry Tourism industry Infrastructure,Transport, Urban Settlements, Building months

Mapping societal sectors into domain based ECVs Surface: Air temperature Wind speed/direction Water vapour, Pressure, Precipitation, Surface radiation budget Upper-air: Temperature, Wind speed/direction Water vapour Cloud properties Earth radiation budget Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane (other GHGs) Ozone and Aerosol River discharge Water use Ground water Lakes Snow cover Glaciers and ice caps Ice sheets Permafrost Albedo Land cover(inc.veg type) FAPAR, Leaf area index (LAI), Above-ground biomass, Soil carbon Fire disturbance Soil moisture Surface: Sea-surface temperature Sea-surface salinity Sea level Sea state Sea ice Surface current Ocean colour Carbon dioxide part.p. Ocean acidity Sub-surface: Temperature Salinity Current Nutrients Carbon dioxide part p. Ocean acidity Oxygen Tracers Phytoplankton Infrastructure,Transport, Urban Settlements, Building Soil Soil Financialservicesindustry Financialservicesindustry Financialservicesindustry Tourism industry Forestry Forestry Biological diversity / Ecosystems Trade and industry Energyindustry Fisheries Fisheries Agriculture and Farming Agriculture Agriculture Water regime, coastal and marine protection Water regime, coastal and marine protection Water regime, coastal and marine protection Water regime, coastal and marine protection Health Health Health Health Energyindustry Energyindustry Biological diversity / Ecosystems Biological Ecosystems Oceanic Observations Terrestrial Observations Atmospheric Observations Infrastructure,Transport, Urban Settlements, Building Infrastructure,Transport, Building

Up-dated Implementation Plan: in brief:  new ECVs, now 50 (before 44 )  reflection on ecosystems (biodiversity)  additional focus on reference and super site networks (measurements of several ECVs at one site for a more comprehensive understanding of the ecosystem)  cost estimation (additional costs and costs for existing systems)

GCOS Progress Report Summary  Satellite agencies:  improved mission continuity and capability  increasingly meeting climate needs  Progress made, but:  Many gaps persist,  Continued engagement needed for coordinated implementation and long-term continuity Summary of progress on all 131 Actions in 2004 GCOS IP  Developed Countries:  improved climate observation capabilities,  limited progress in resolving financial issues related to long-term continuity  Developing Countries:  limited (in-situ) progress, with decline in some regions,  capacity building support remains small in relation to needs

Update 2006 Satellite Supplement to the GCOS IP (GCOS-107)  Update detailed GCOS requirements for FCDRs and ECV products in terms of  accuracy,  stability,  temporal/spatial resolution,  calibration and validation needs and opportunities,  relevant international working groups. for Atmosphere, Ocean, Land and Cross-Cutting actions.  Expert Meeting, January 10 – 12, 2011, Geneva improvements on most of the ECVs, extra sections, e.g., GHGs, precursors, « pressure » emerges now also as space-based observed ECV.  Open for public review, March 2011  Finalising draft, 2 nd Qrt Satellite Supplement – up-date in January 2011

Ensuring Quality and Acceptance of ECV Datasets (GCOS Guideline for generation of ECV datasets and products, May 2010) When generating climate datasets and ECV products, particular attention to: 1.Full description of all steps in the generation of datasets and products 2.Information on publications in peer-reviewed journals related to datasets and products 3.Statement of expected accuracy, stability and resolution (time, space) of the product 4.Arrangements for access to the datasets, products and all documentation 5.Version management of datasets and products, particularly in connection with improved algorithms and reprocessing 6.Particular attention to long-term stability and homogeneity of the product 7.Full application of all appropriate calibration/validation activities that would enhance product quality 8.Global coverage where appropriate 9.Timeliness of data release to the user community to enable monitoring activities 10.Facility for user feedback 11.Application of a quantitative maturity index if possible 12.Summary documenting the extent to which this guideline has been followed.  Responds to increasing demand by producers to ensure climate quality / meeting GCOS requirements  Ensure transparency (“Say what you do”)

Sub-seasonal Intra-Seasonal MJO (30-90 days) up to 6 months Seasonal, Inter-annual (ENSO, TBO, Monsoon) 6 months – 5 yrs Decadal 10 yrs Inter-Decadal (10-20 yrs) Mulit-Decadal (> 20 yrs) (PDO,AMO,MOC) 2050 and beyond = Climate Change (Emission Scenarios) synoptic Planting/Harvesting Use of Pesticides/Fertiliser Crop type&sequence Stocking rates Herd management Crop Industry, breeding Land use Logistics: scheduling of activties Management Long-term Planning Strategic Thinking on how to adapt the relevant policies Choose Fishing area&method Plan to restock fish, &fishing methods Prevention of accidents, injuries or allergies, heat stress, circulation disorders…. Develop vaccines; Implement bio- monitoring systems Foster research; Connect to sector of infrastructure (green spaces, air corridors in cities..), Prevention of accidents and damages Revision of standards for buildings/infrastructure; Make provisions to repair roads and railways. Construction & Planning policies Adapt to of standards for buildings/infrastructure; Investigate into new routes. Prevention on floods, droughts, storm surges Drinking&cooling water; Possibility of shipping Drinking water quality, protection of coastal lines&waterways Sustained soil quality Adaption of species; migration; extinction Protect&conserve habitats; Design Landscapes Reduce pollutants and nutrients (initiate legislation) Harvesting/Planting; Prevention of fire Drought, Pest outbreaks Health of forest Timber harvest Protection of human settlement and infrastructure Timber yields Compositions& conversion;use of timber Prevention of mud slides, erosion Agriculture and Farming FisheriesSoilForestryEnergyindustryHealthBiological diversity / Ecosystems Water regime, coastal and marine protection Trade and industry Financialservicesindustry Tourism industry Infrastructure,Transport, Urban Settlements, Building Change Fishing area&method Reproductivity capacity of stocks Humus formation Carbon sequestration Water reserves Coastal lines Shipping ways Travel management Provision of labour& infrastructure Regional shifts Purchasing&stock policies Crisis precautions; Renewable energy; Alternative energy sources Generation of energy; New/modify regulations Lead of adequate energy supply Lead of adequate personnel&material (resources) Take precautions by plant safety managers; new legal regulations Design plants to withstand extreme weather Innovations in technology Financial policies Risk assessment; new business strategies Revise framework conditions; new/modify business modles Value of Observations (ECVs) for societal sectors

Agriculture and Farming From Observations to Information to Services Example of a societal sector: Agriculture and Farming ECV Precipitation ECV Air temperature Model for Agrometeorology Start of vegetation period Start of flowering of winter rape Ripeness of maize Vernalization (low temp. stimulus) Number of days of ice, frost, summer, heat, tropical days, tropical nights Planting date Sowing date Yield changes Climate Observations (annual means, monthly means) Model data; phenological & meteorological observations Example output parameter: Research