1. Systematic Observation Requirements for Space-based Products for Climate Supplemental details to the satellite-based component of the “Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC” Stephan Bojinski Global Climate Observing System Secretariat

2. Outline l Background to GCOS and its activities l Road towards “Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-based Products for Climate” l Requirements: Examples l Conclusion and Points for Discussion

3. GCOS Mission l To ensure that the data required to meet the needs of users for climate information are obtained and made available for: l Climate system monitoring, climate change detection and attribution; l Research, modelling and prediction of the climate system; l Assessing impacts, vulnerability & adaptation; l Application to sustainable economic development. l Global, long-term, high-quality, sustainable, reliable l 3 science panels (Atmosphere, Oceans, Terrestrial), Steering Committee, Secretariat l Sponsored by WMO, UNEP, UNESCO, ICSU l National GCOS coordinators and focal points, National support

4. GCOS Observational Strategy l Achieving an optimal balance of satellite and in-situ data l Ensuring data are stable enough to allow reliable detection of climate change – l 20 GCOS climate monitoring principles (10 basic + 10 especially for space-based observations) l Making full use of all available data to achieve a cost- effective global observing system for climate l Network concept: – Comprehensive networks of all relevant observations – Global Baseline networks – Reference networks – Research networks

5. Selected GCOS activities in the past 3 years l GCOS Adequacy Report (2003): identified gaps and deficiencies l GCOS Implementation Plan (2004): the roadmap for the global climate observing system in the next 5-10 years l Both reports developed in response to and endorsed by the UNFCCC l Broad participation and ownership by the climate community, including WCRP, WCP l GCOS seen as the climate component of the GEOSS l Regional workshops l Regional implementation (e.g.,G8 follow-up, in conjunction with donors and development agencies in Africa)

6. GCOS Implementation Plan l Requirements in the ‘Second Adequacy Report’; n Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) n Integrated global analysis products l Existing global, regional and national plans; l Open review by nations, broad range of scientists and data users; l Indicators for measuring its implementation; l Implementation priorities, agents and resource requirements; l 131 Actions; estimated USD 631M additional annually recurring cost.

7. Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) l Atmospheric (16) Surface – Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour Upper Air – Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature (including MSU radiances), Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties Composition – Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, Other long-lived greenhouse gases, Aerosol properties. l Oceanic (15) Surface – Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Current, Ocean colour (for biological activity), Carbon dioxide partial pressure Sub-surface:Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon, Ocean tracers, Phytoplankton l Terrestrial (13) River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lake levels, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), [Biomass], Fire disturbance, [soil moisture]

8. Variables Largely Dependent Upon Satellites l Atmospheric Surface – Precipitation, Surface Wind speed and direction over oceans, Upper Air – Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature (inc. MSU radiances), Water vapour, Cloud properties Composition – Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, Other long-lived greenhouse gases, Aerosol properties. l Oceanic Surface – Sea-surface temperature, (Sea-surface salinity), Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Ocean colour Sub Surface – Altimetry for analysis/reanalysis l Terrestrial (Ground water), (Lake levels), Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Albedo, Land cover, Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index, (Biomass), Fire disturbance, (soil moisture)

9. Road towards the ‘Satellite supplement’ to the GCOS IP l Space agencies were requested by UNFCCC to respond to requirements in the GCOS IP by November 2006 l Space agencies asked GCOS, through CEOS, to provide more details for these requirements l Early draft in August 2005, based on space-based ECVs l January 2006 workshop with 25 participants, using l Template l Requirements in Ohring et al. (2005) l Requirements in WMO/CEOS database

10. Scope of the ‘Satellite supplement’ to the GCOS IP (v1.1) l 8 Cross-cutting needs (e.g., inter-calibration, unique data) l 44 ECV-based needs l Needs for reanalysis (e.g., atmosphere-ocean coupling) l Detailed specifications, often in conjunction with in-situ data for cal/val l Recognises, but does not detail, limited time research needs for process studies l Some engagement of research needs in relation to developing and demonstrating improved and new capabilities for the ECV’s (“Emerging Variables”)

11. Where do priority needs stop? l Some in the science community have ambitions that “all” research missions and/or datasets thereof be sustained (“operational”) l GCOS focus is on a priority sustained component that deals with practical monitoring on a global scale, and that should be feasible within a decade. l GCOS nevertheless also considers benefits from supplemental, less reliable measurements, or very accurate measurements made only at intervals.

12. Nomenclature Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR) ”a long-term data record, involving a series of instruments, with potentially changing measurement approaches, but with overlaps and calibrations sufficient to allow the generation of homogeneous products providing a measure of the intended variable that is accurate and stable enough for climate monitoring. FCDRs include the ancillary data used to calibrate them.” Products (aka TCDRs) ”denotes geophysical variables derived from FCDRs, often generated by blending satellite observations, in- situ data and models.”

13. Example 1 l Aerosol Product: Fields of aerosol optical depth, supported by single scattering albedo and phase function, and the sampling of vertical profiles of aerosol properties at regular time intervals l Benefits: Reduce uncertainty in climate forcing l Spatial and temporal resolution (e.g., total column AOD): 1 km horizontal, 1-day cycle, RMS accuracy 0.01, decadal stability 0.005 l Appropriate FCDR at selected VIS/NIR wavelengths, through: l Optimal configuration of LEO/GEO satellites l Continuity by AVHRR-3, VIIRS, MTG l Reprocessing of AVHRR since 1981; of full GOES dataset l Research with active instruments l Cal/val needs: NDAC, WMO GAW, NASA AERONET l Immediate actions: Reprocessing of historical datasets l Other applications of product: Air quality, NWP, cloud chemistry

14. Example 2 l Land Cover Change Product: Global georeferenced map of changes in land cover type l Benefits: Quantify areal changes land cover; provide link between global land cover maps and in-situ observations; support to national GHG inventory reporting to the UNFCCC l Spatial and temporal resolution: 10-30m horizontal, 1-year cycle (often shorter), RMS accuracy 5%, decadal stability: not defined l Appropriate FCDR of high-resolution, multispectral VIS/NIR imagery, e.g., Landsat ETM type l Adequacy: scattered regional 30-m resolution maps exist, but no institution provides global maps on a regular basis l Immediate actions: Reprocessing of historical datasets; build on existing rudimentary institutional arrangements; research to develop feasible operational solutions l Other applications of product: Support change detection / sustainable development in e.g., agriculture, forestry

15. Outlook / Conclusions l Output from 2002 NIST workshop (Ohring et al., 2005) very helpful l Ensure close collaboration between the ASIC3 workshop and GCOS effort (partly overlapping), for consistency of requirements l Nomenclature? l Relation of US National Roadmap to international Space Agencies’ (CEOS) response, in terms of l FCDRs? l Products? l Research needs?

16. Outlook / Conclusions l GCOS “Satellite Supplement” document: Open review of version 1.1 until mid-June (your feedback welcome!): http://www.wmo.int/web/gcos/gcoshome.html l Publication of GCOS document in September 2006 l Space agencies’ report to UNFCCC in November 2006

17. Thank you for your attention.