Before and After Maastricht: The Case of Slovenia Boštjan Jazbec Member of the Governing Board Bank of Slovenia Tabor, 23 May 2008 Views expressed are.

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Presentation transcript:

Before and After Maastricht: The Case of Slovenia Boštjan Jazbec Member of the Governing Board Bank of Slovenia Tabor, 23 May 2008 Views expressed are not necessarily views of the Bank of Slovenia.

Outline Problems with Maastricht Criteria Fulfilment Exchange Rate: Shock Generator or Absorber? Before and After Maastricht The Case Study: Slovenia

Strategies for Euro Adoption Wait for Real Convergence to Take Place Benefits of Euro Adoption? Beat the Mastricht Inflation Criterion by Exchange Rate Manipulation Entusiasm for Inflation Targeting

Economics or Politics? Change of Maastricht Criteria requires change of Treaty Problem with ECB Governance

The Case of Slovenia May 2004: Entry to EU June 2004: Entry to ERM2 January 2007: Adoption of Euro

Real Convergence Story?

Where Do We Stand Today?

Catching-up Process

Inflation Criterion: Slovenia

Is this Balassa-Samuelson Effect?

Structure of HICP

Food Prices in Slovenia and EMU

Activity, Employment and Wages

GDP Growth by Components of Expenditure

Contributions to Employment Growth

Financial Deepening

Lending to Domestic Private Sector

Interest Rates in Slovenia Loans to Non-financial CorporationsLoans to Households

Financial inflows

Current Account Development

Conclusions Maastricht Inflation Criterion Benefits of Euro Adoption Financial Stability Issue At least we cannot have exchange rate and B-o-P crises