Introduction to Climate Change and its Impact on Society Jagadish Shukla Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies Lecture2: Aug 28, 2008 CLIM 101: Weather, Climate and Global Society

The Climate of a Planet Depends On … 1.Energy from the Sun (energy from the interior) 2.Planetary Albedo 3.Speed of Planet’s Rotation 4.Mass of the Planet 5.Radius of the Planet 6.Atmospheric Composition 7.Ocean-Land, Topography S   M a H 2 O, CO 2, O 3, clouds h* Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies

Earth’s Energy Balance Solar Radiation S = 1380 Wm -2 (plane, parallel) Assume radiative equilibrium, so that INCOMING ENERGY = OUTGOING ENERGY Measured albedo (  ) = 0.31 Measured planetary E = 237 Wm -2 Implied T E = 255 K Measured surface E s = 390 Wm -2 Atmosphere absorbs 153 Wm -2 Measured T s = 288 K Planetary Emission T s (288K) > T e (255K) … Greenhouse Effect (H 2 O, CO 2 ) Life on planet Earth!

Recent analyses of satellite measurements do not indicate a long-term trend in solar irradiance (the amount of energy received by the sun), Frohlich and Lean (2005) Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies Solar Irradiance

Examples of Short-Term Climate Variability Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies

1998 JFM SST [ o C] JFM SST Climatology [ o C] 1998 JFM SST Anomaly [ o C] El Nino/Southern Oscillation

Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies Summer 2003 European Heat Wave: Result of Global Warming? The immediate cause of the heat-wave was a persistent high pressure center over Northwest Europe. There is currently no evidence that human influence on climate makes such circulation patterns more likely. Summer 2003 temperatures relative to

Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies Greenland Grace monthly mass solutions. For the entire Greenland ice sheet, for April 2002 to April 2006, after scaling the results and removing the mean. The blue error bars include only the contributions from uncertainties in the GRACE gravity fields. Velicogna and Wahr (2006) Greenland Ice Mass Thanks: R. Cicerone

Examples of Long-Term Climate Variability Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies

1 Ma Mechanism: Orbital Parameters Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies

120 ka Mechanism: Orbital Parameters Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies

18 ka Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies

LAST TWO MILLENIA OR SO … 2000 Year Northern Hemisphere Reconstruction of Surface Air Temperatures Temperature Anomaly ( o C)

LAST CENTURY OR SO … Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies

Carbon Cycle Current Global Carbon Cycle ( ) Pools of carbon are in Gt and annual fluxed in Gt C y -1. Background or pre- anthropogenic pools and fluxes are in black. The human perturbation to the pools and fluxed are in red. (updated from Sabine et al. 2004)

Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies Net CO2 Flux Takahashi et al. 2002

Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies CO 2 emissions (Gigatons of Carbon, Gt C), IPCC : 6.4 Gt C (=23.5 Gt CO 2 ), : 7.2 Gt C (=26.4 Gt CO 2 )

Monthly Mean Carbon Dioxide NOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies Atmospheric carbon dioxide mixing ratios determined from the continuous monitoring programs at the 4 NOAA CMDL baseline observations. Principal investigator: Dr. Pieter Tans. NOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases. Boulder, Colorado. (303)

Courtesy of UCAR 1.0º C Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies

Warming 1. Greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O) CO 2 : Carbon Dioxide : Emission from fossil fuel CH 4 : Methane : Agriculture N 2 O: Nitrous Oxide 2. Land use change Cooling 1.Aerosols Man made/Natural Volcanoes ※ Rate of increase of GHG is largest in 10,000 years (Net) Global Warming Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies

Global mean, volume mean ocean temperature Courtesy of Tom Delworth (GFDL) GFDL Model Simulations

Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies Mean of 15 Models Surface Air Temperature Difference (Sresa1b YR ) minus (20c3m ), Global Average = 2.61

Impact of Weather and Climate Variations on Society Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies

Area impacted by Nargis

Population affected by NARGIS

Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies

Recent Increasing Trends in Frequency of Natural Hazards WindstormsFloods Extreme Heat EventsDrought

Great Natural Disasters 1950 – 2005 Number of events Others (Heat wave, cold wave, forest fire) Flood Storm Earthquake/tsunami, volcanic eruption © 2006 NatCatSERVICE, Geo Risks Research, Munich Re

Weather, Climate and Global Society Weather, climate and agriculture Weather, climate and agriculture Weather, climate and energy Weather, climate and energy Weather, climate and transportation Weather, climate and transportation Weather, climate and health Weather, climate and health Weather, climate and architecture Weather, climate and architecture Weather, climate and culture Weather, climate and culture Weather, climate and sustainability Weather, climate and sustainability Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies

HumansEcosystems Weather Climate Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies

World Population World Population from AD 1 to 2002 Source: Data from Maddison (2001), Calculated using data from Maddison (2002) World Income from 1500 to 2001 World Income per Capita from 1500 to 2001 Since 1750, population increased 10 times; Production per person also increased 10 times; Therefore, total world economic production increased 100 times. Therefore, the impact of human activity on life- sustaining system on earth increased enormously. Planet under Stress ‘Common Wealth’ by Jeffrey Sachs, 2008

Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies Wagner, 2002 U. S. Flow of Raw Materials by weight The use of raw materials in the U. S. increased dramatically during the last 100 years

Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies Global Poverty ‘Common Wealth’ by Jeffrey Sachs, 2008 From 1820 to 1992

Global Well-Being (sustainability, security and the future of civilization) The Global Challenge Inequality and Extreme Poverty Human Population Growth Environmental Degradation Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies

THANK YOU! ANY QUESTIONS? Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies