The 2003/04 Delphi The Millennium Project July 31, 2004

Three Objectives Updating the 15 challenges and listing measures of accomplishment. Projecting the best and worst plausible future values for the SOFI variables Identifying and evaluating future developments that could influence the course of the SOFI variables.

Categories of Accomplishment Measures Health Care Education Economics Environment Social Political S&T

Illustration of Policy Use of Measures: Sustainability Atmospheric carbon dioxide drops for at least five years in a row. Average calories per capita exceeds 2000 and numbers of hungry people diminishes by half. Decrease in total non-renewable energy consumption while the GDP increases for five consecutive years. Adopting measures of national productivity that include all the costs and benefits of production, replacing GNP/GDP. Decrease or stabilization in the consumption of natural resources per capita Increase in worldwide per capita income for more than 20 years Stability in the amount of biodiversity in the 20 most relevant natural sites (rainforests, coral reefs etc.) for at least ten years. All developed countries accept the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Stabilization in population growth in developing regions. Innovative technologies providing substitution for 20% of natural resources.

Importance of the Measures The scale used was: 5= The indicator is an excellent measure of accomplishment 4= The indicator is a good and trustworthy measure 3= The indicator is likely to show accomplishment 2= The indicator is of questionable value 1= The indicator is essentially of no value

Top Rated Measures of Accomplishment The number of people without clean water diminishes by half. (2, water) Gender parity in school enrollment, literacy, and access to capital. (11, status of women) Elimination of laws that discriminate against women. (11, status of women) Total energy production from environmentally benign processes passed other sources for five sequential years. (13, energy) International drug smuggling, trafficking of humans, and other income sources for transnational organized crime drops by 75%. (12, organized crime) Corruption decreases by 50% (15, ethics) Ethical business standards internationally recognized and regularly audited. (15, ethics) Market economy abuses and corruption by companies are intensively prosecuted. (7, rich-poor gap) Number of people living on less than $2 per day drops by 75%. (7, rich-poor gap) The number of people suffering from water-borne diseases drops by half. (2, water) International money laundering drops by 75%. (12, organized crime)

“How would we know when sustainable development for all (Challenge 1) has been substantially achieved?” Atmospheric carbon dioxide drops for at least five years in a row. GDP increases while greenhouse gas emissions decreases for five years in a row. The global acreage in forests increases for five years. Average calories per capita per day exceed 2000 and the number of hungry people diminishes by half. Proven natural resources increase by 30%. Atmospheric carbon dioxide drops for at least five years in a row. Average calories per capita per day exceeds 2000 The number of hungry people diminishes by half. Total non-renewable energy consumption diminishes while the GDP increases for five consecutive years. Many nation states adopt a measure of national productivity that is inclusive of all the costs and benefits of production, replacing GNP/GDP.