Optimum Big Rain Indicator of Extremes for the Southeast USA Presented by: Jim O’Brien Collaborators: Preston Leftwich and David Zierden COAPS, The Florida.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Update on the Drought of 2011 TWCA Mid Year Conference June 16, 2011 Bob Rose, Meteorologist LCRA.
Advertisements

Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, and Hurricanes. Different names for Hurricanes Hurricane – Atlantic Ocean and eastern Pacific Ocean Typhoon – Western Pacific.
Jim Noel Service Coordination Hydrologist March 2, 2012
Performance of Flood Control Works around Dhaka City during Major Floods in Bangladesh (Part-1) A.K.M. Saiful Islam Institute of Water and Flood Management.
Start Audio Lecture! FOR462: Watershed Science & Management 1 Streamflow Analysis Module 8.7.
Stormwater Quality Enhancement
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments John Gaynor Office of Weather and Air Quality Research And USWRP Interagency.
Flood Frequency Analysis
Climate Variability and Forecasting in the Southeast U.S. David F. Zierden Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University.
Linking Climate and Weather Services: Extending Forecasts for Disaster Mitigation and Economic Benefits Presented by A. Leetmaa to The Honorable William.
Winter Storms by Paul Kocin Winter Storm Expert The Weather Channel and Dr. Gerry Bell Climate Prediction Center.
Sea Level Rise, Hurricanes, Coastal Adaptation Peter Webster.
2015 Monsoon Season Outlook Daniel Henz Meteorologist Flood Warning Branch Flood Warning Users Workshop June 24, 2015 Phoenix, Arizona Monsoon t-storm.
Natural Disasters What is an Earthquake? Ground movement caused by the sudden release of seismic energy due to tectonic forces. The focus of an earthquake.
Economic Cooperation Organization Training Course on “Drought and Desertification” Alanya Facilities, Antalya, TURKEY presented by Ertan TURGU from Turkish.
Climate of the Southeast Title. Climate of the Southeast This region has a subtropical climate. This means that the weather is usually humid and hot with.
National Weather Service Des Moines, IA National Weather Service Des Moines, IA Iowa Weather & Flood Outlook February 10, 2010 Jeff Johnson & Jeff Zogg.
Hurricanes Hurricanes  A tropical cyclone that occurs in the Atlantic.  Also a generic term for low pressure systems that develop in the tropics.
Hurricanes. What is a hurricane? A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, the general term for all circulating weather systems over tropical waters.
Optimum Big Rain Indicator of Extremes for the Southeast USA Presented by: Jim O’Brien Collaborators: Preston Leftwich and David Zierden COAPS, The Florida.
Tornadoes By: Zach Fosson, Matthew Szymaszek, and Billie Fulton.
Overview of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Precipitation/Flash Flood Products/Services Michael Eckert
A hurricane is a severe tropical storm that forms over warm ocean waters. Evaporation from sea water increases its power. They have winds of at least 75.
What is a hurricane? A hurricane is a huge storm which can be up to 960 kilometers (600 miles) across and have strong winds spiraling inward and upward.
Tropical Storms. Same Storm - Different Name Tropical Cyclones Background:  Can be deadly! For example, in 1991 a large cyclone in Bangladesh killed.
National Weather Service Pittsburgh, PA Weather Day.
Tornadoes.
The Florida Climate Center’s Approach to Climate Services James J. O’Brien State Climatologist for Florida Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor Florida.
2/10/03F.Marks1 Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rain Forecasting Tool Frank D. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL QPE Techniques.
Renata Gonçalves Tedeschi Alice Marlene Grimm Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, Paraná 1. OBJECTIVES 1)To asses the influence of ENSO on the frequency.
Report number: Project Cost: $32,922 Project Duration: 12 months
The July 28,1997 Fort Collins Flood: Putting the Stormwater System to the Test How Did it Serve to Minimize Societal Impact? Matt Kelsch Hydrometeorologist.
Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Response - A View From Georgia - David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D. State Climatologist and Associate Professor Engineering.
NOAA / WSWC Workshop on Advancing Seasonal Prediction for Water Resources Jon Gottschalck and Dave DeWitt NWS / NCEP / Climate Prediction Center October.
TORNADO OUTBREAK IN MIDWESTERN USA STATES An Unusual Occurrence for November 17, 2013 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,
Winter/Spring Outlook Derrick Weitlich National Weather Service Melbourne Central Florida Prescribed Fire Council Annual Meeting September 25,
SEVERE WEATHER. What is a HURRICANE? *A large, swirling low-pressure tropical weather system that has wind speeds of at least 119 km/h. *Most powerful.
By Jacob. Where floods typically occur. Floods usually occur on rivers, creeks and bays. Floods also occur after tsunamis and hurricanes.
FrancisciWG.2.  Certain weather phenomena are unique to specific regions.
Casualty Actuarial Society Hurricane Landfall Probabilities from Proxy Data David Malmquist Risk Prediction Initiative Bermuda Biological Station for Research,
Atmosphere Composition Nitrogen  78% Oxygen  21% Other  about 1% Nitrogen  78% Oxygen  21% Other  about 1%
Climate Variability in the Southeast NIDIS Southeast Pilot, Apalachicola Workshop Apalachicola, FL April 27, 2010 David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist.
Meteorological And Hydrologic Cooperation: “Impacts Of Weather, Water And Climate Information on Disaster Preparedness”
Flooding/Severe Weather Potential: March 12, 2010 National Weather Service Miami/South Florida Forecast Office.
Hurricanes Tornadoes  A huge storm that has strong winds that spiral inward and upward at speeds of mph  A violent rotating column of air extending.
User-driven Climate Forecasts in the Southeast U.S. David F. Zierden Assistant State Climatologist Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies The.
Hurricane Landfall and Post Storm Surveys. Isolated Straight Line Wind Damage & Tornadoes Widespread Wind Damage Extreme.
. By Sophie. This is the New York (USA) Map. This Island with the circle round red is New York (USA)
Eye of the Storm: Tropical Weather 101 Luis Rosa and Ashlie Sears Meteorologists Eye of the Storm: Tropical Weather 101 Luis Rosa and Ashlie Sears Meteorologists.
Hurricanes Weather. Hurricanes  The whirling tropical cyclones that occasionally have wind speeds exceeding 300 kilometers (185 miles) per hour are known.
Weather Briefing May 21, 2013 National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac, MI
What is a Hurricane ? Anatomy of a Hurricane What causes Hurricanes ? For Classroom lessons and hurricane information: SouthEast Atlantic.
STORMWATER MASTER PLAN TASK FORCE November 20, 2006.
This Year (2014) So Far/ A Look Ahead John Lewis, Senior Forecaster National Weather Service Little Rock, Arkansas.
Summer and fall Weather outlook
Hurricanes and Tornadoes
Country Status of quality management in rainfall observation
Thunderstorms, Tornadoes and Hurricanes
The Museum Of Florida Weather
DROUGHT MONITORING SYSTEM IN DHMZ
Tornados vs. Hurricanes
The Hurricane: Nature’s Fury
Severe Weather.
South Carolina’s Climate
EQ: What is the impact of climate on Georgia’s growth and development?
Severe Weather.
Tornados vs. Hurricanes
Tornados vs. Hurricanes
Chapter 7 Created by Educational Technology Network
Presentation transcript:

Optimum Big Rain Indicator of Extremes for the Southeast USA Presented by: Jim O’Brien Collaborators: Preston Leftwich and David Zierden COAPS, The Florida State University

Hurricanes and Tornadoes are Categorical Hurricanes Saffir-Simpson Scale CategoryWind Speed Cat mph Cat mph Cat mph Cat mph Cat 5> 155 mph Tornadoes Enhanced Fujita Scale CategoryWind Speed EF mph EF mph EF mph EF mph EF mph EF5> 200 mph Both scales are based on damage potential.

Gamma Distribution Alpha > 1.0 Alpha < 1.0 Gamma Function Generalized Gamma pdf

Rainfall Events Fitted to a Gamma Distribution

Potential Applied Users Water utility managers Water management districts Stormwater design and control Engineering (retention pond design and maintenance) Road and other construction Agricultural specialists Flooding potential outlooks Wildcard – human health

Proposed Scale for Heavy Rainfall Heavy Rainfall Event (2-day) CategoryAmountProbability R11-2 inches80-88% R inches88-96% R inches96-99% R4> 3 inches> 99%

Station Distribution Map Heavy rain events based on 2-day totals. NWS Cooperative Observers only report once daily, usually midnight-to-midnight. Rainfall does not automatically stop at midnight, 2-day totals better describe discrete events. In some cases, 3-day totals may be applicable

Exceedance Probabilities by Month Tarpon Springs, FL March Category 2 Rainfall Event

Exceedance Probabilities by Month Tarpon Springs, FL April Category 2 Rainfall Event

Exceedence Probabilities by ENSO Phase Tarpon Springs, March Tarpon Springs, July

Seasonal Probability by 20-year periods Orlando, FL Probability of at least one Cat 2 Rainfall Event (2 inches or greater)

Seasonal Probability by 20-year periods High Springs, FL Probability of at least one Cat 2 Rainfall Event (2 inches or greater)

The End

Feedback: Privacy Policy Feedback
Do Not Sell My Personal Information
About project: SlidePlayer Terms of Service

© 2024 SlidePlayer.com Inc. All rights reserved.